Then explain how this is going to work in the business world? Companies have abandoned even looking at Windows 8 and 98% of the world business offices use PC's. As long as the business world uses PC's over mobile devices the PC is no where near on the brink of extinction. You put that on top of the fact that hobbyist can configure their PC's to do whatever they want to achieve the best performance, how is mobile going to take over this completely (they can't even give us mobile alternatives to the best PC titles we've lost)? Next is Graphic design that needs the robust performance and specific upgrade options only a PC can provide (graphic cards for example), a tablet and laptop can't compare. All of your Hollywood computer generated special effects are created on desktop computers. I know because I have a friend that works for ILM and another for Pixar in Oakland.

 

I'm just looking at basic common sense as I've never blindly believed what CNN Reports and third party online news outlets say. The social engineering is not working here. You can't just tell people this is how it is and it becomes reality. You can get away with this with social issues and the music industry but in technology everyone going to mobile just doesn't make since and I'm not seeing the business, military, government world jumping on board as it's not practical for day to day work. Only home/entertainment use and that's not universal.

 

 

It's an interesting conversation to have.

 

Certainly, be it ILM/Pixar, or any one of a shrinking number of high-end music production and mastering studios, or a variety of business and military environments, there's still enough need for local compute power -- in the form of high-end PC desktops with high-end graphics cards and lots of local storage ("lots" by current standards, a few terabytes.....) -- that the Death of the PC is not immediate.

 

On the other hand, most live music engineers are using iPads these days for setup and balance during performances; the military is increasingly using iPads -- as is the actual aviation world -- for a variety of "client" data and reporting and communications and analysis needs; an increasing number of software companies are providing sophisticated front-end reporting, analysis, data-driven compute processing, to derive local results, often drawing upon remote huge (petabytes) datasets and processing power and memory and storage as the foundation for their work (Wolfram Alpha, for example).

 

The entirety of the software environment is rapidly driving towards that kind of architecture: AWS/Hadoop/Akamai and equivalents (private clouds, though those are proving increasingly unnecessary) on the back-end, highly mobile, increasingly thinner (and not just in visual size but in the need for immediate compute, graphics and storage capability) clients on the front end.

 

This isn't just CNN propaganda, it's the foundation of what is happening technologically in the computer business.

 

Microsoft is kind of a lap dog in that environment and will have a lot to do to address the challenges it represents for them, competitively.  It's not a problem needing solution for them overnight, but change IS happening quite rapidly, faster than anyone can predict or even anticipate.

 

In the interim, there is a niche for rich, local media experience that exceeds the capabilities of iPhone/iPad/Galaxy/etc., but even there, with Chromecast, Apple TV, other means of finding ways to use mobile to access massive online data on the back end and project it anywhere, at any size, with full resolution and performance on a variety of available "reporting devices" (such as a 4K HDTV for a movie..... think of that as simply yet another "reporting interface," <BG>), that niche is vanishing rapidly.

 

The complex content production that digital 3D currently involves is also, increasingly, automatable.  A lot of it in the future will simply be generated, processed, derived from massive data for representation as needed, on-the-fly; it won't require armies of coders or content developers to make it.  It will be the visual equivalent of 3-D printing, which is similarly going to utterly transform all manufacturing, inventory, warehousing and distribution processes for physical goods, sooner than we all think (especially us old folks <g>).

 

Imagine a Ford Datastore that keeps all the data necessary to locally print a part for any vehicle Ford has ever made, from 1932-->2025.  A local fab three miles from your house prints up that part, drawing upon the data, has it for you within hours, or maybe even minutes, for a fraction of current cost.

 

You could keep your car (or transportation vehicle) running for 100 years without the need for replacement with a system like that.  And it's on the way.

 

Think bigger.

 

Oh -- and as for MS Flight: that was on the way to being what we all could have wanted, were it not for the huge mistake of trying to market and sell it the "free-to-play with microtransactions" way, and the closed, "we're not allowing 3rd party developers in" approach.  Technically, it had some improvements over FSX, which I appreciated when I tried it out, briefly.  But the approach to content was so horrendous I never gave it a further thought, once I found out what the business model was.

 

So, MS went after the f2p market with the wrong thing, basically, they mixed 'n matched two entirely different kinds of content and business model, and thus created the huge tragedy of MS Flight.

 

That was not a technical mistake; it was a business and marketing mistake.

 

EA did the same thing with The Sims and Sims3. For very similar reasons.  And even worse, SimCity4.

Business idiocy, basically.

@FleetingThought: Would you kindly Edit your reply above to move your words outside of the Quote Box in which Dillon's words are included?

 

By having your words mixed in with Dillon's, it makes it difficult (impossible really!) to know which are his and which are your's...

 

When I had to replace my "dumb phone" with a new phone and provider (my U.S. Cellular account of 16 years was sold to Sprint), I chose a Nokia Lumina running WindowOS for one reason only. It easily connects to my existing LAN here at my home office and simply appears as another "device" in Windows Explorer...

 

...something my Toshiba Thrive Android device is incapable of doing.

 

OTOH, I'm sure glad I don't have that butt-ugly user interface on any of my network's other computers!  :LMAO:

Hi Bill,

 

Yes, fixed -- noticed that after I posted.

 

Steve

 

 

OTOH, I'm sure glad I don't have that butt-ugly user interface on any of my network's other computers!

 

What does "Fr." in "Fr. Bill" mean?  Sorry for my ignorance in advance.

 

I put Windows 8 UI to the test ... my Folks needed a new PC (Coming from many years of WinXP) and I was debating Mac (OSX) or Windows 8 based computer.  I went with the Windows 8 computer for them (touch screen) as it was about $250-$300 cheaper than the iMac with similar hardware.  They are elderly so I figured it'll be interesting to see how they work with a brand new Windows 8 PC that is supposed to be a better end user interface and more efficient.

 

Sadly, they had to take the computer back to BestBuy, they just couldn't figure it out ... even with my assistance they just kept forgetting all the hidden ways of doing things and special sequence of key strokes and gestures that gets them from A to B.

 

They didn't like the 2D "flat" aspect of everything as they weren't sure what can be touched/clicked -- so as an end result they kept touching everything everywhere wondering if anything would happen, ZERO visual clues for them to follow.  2D flat images were born from Mobile devices where lighting conditions and small screens didn't work well with drop shadow reflective (glass) 3D looking images.  More than a few times my folks got stuck at a screen they couldn't figure how to get out of.  It was interesting to see how a "fresh" real world person would interact with this new Windows 8 UI.

 

So back at BestBuy (with Win8 PC in tow), they had some BestBuy training ... sadly it didn't do much for them at all, they're still mostly lost when it comes to knowing how to interact with Windows 8.

 

IMHO, if you ever have to tell an end user "you have to get used to it", then the interface is flawed and has already failed before it's started.  An interface should always be Intuitive.  Nothing that is important to daily operations of the PC should be guess work or hidden unless the end user wants it that way via a configuration that meets "their" needs.

 

I have no idea what Bill Gates will do for Nadella other than to protect him from other board members and executive power hunters ... at this level in the ladder it's not about money, it's about power.  However, if MS continue down the path of "one OS for all" it's a dead end road with no future.  There are 4 clear divisions; Mobile, Desktop, Enterprise, Game/Entertainment ... what NEEDS to happen that didn't happen in the past (and apparently still doesn't) is the exchange of technical information across the 4 divisions to help make the 4 work well as 1 ...  But do NOT make 1 be all 4.

 

If Microsoft are implementing best coding practices and have designed and implement a source code/resource warehouse, there should never be a case where one group is coding the same implementation/solution as another group in a separate division.  You manage the 4 into 1 at the source which is 1 source being distributed across to 4 implementations ... all shared.  BUT, I think what really happened is that each division went their own way, source code, design, and implemenations were NOT shared, so each division was having to rebuild the same wheel with perhaps just minor changes specific to their requirements.  They really should have been the same source normalized to meet the needs of the corporate divisions -- nobody was really in charge of the repository.  Millions of lines of source code duplicated across divisions ... so rather than tackle the problem head on, they come up with the idea One OS for all?

 

Sadly I can't see Bill Gates being of much benefit to the company -- he didn't seem to get involved or prevent many of the bad decisions Ballmer and executive crew made.  An now Julie Larson-Green (replacing Sinofsky) who is in charge of the Windows OS division (mobile and desktop) came out with statements like "I fully expect the average consumer to have 4 or 5 mobile devices" in her justification to continue one OS for all approach (indicating there is plenty of room for Microsoft to grow in the mobile market).  I can't see one "average" consumer having 4-5 mobile devices (active and be used at the same time) ... unless of course they work for the CIA/NSA or sell drugs.  

 

If Microsoft want to succeed in the Mobile market, they need an OS and device specifically for that market -- they need an end user experience that is so positive (more than just check of the feature for feature list) it can capture and take away market share from other Mobile devices ... and part of that innovation will be a mobile device that can communicate with just about anything (car, PC, Mac, iPad, iPhone, Android, TV, console, etc.) -- rise above barriers, it's technically possible and that's the type of innovation that's going to need to come from Microsoft, not "we have one now too" -- lead the industry, don't follow the industry.

 

Rob

 

 

I can't see one "average" consumer having 4-5 mobile devices (active and be used at the same time) ... unless of course they work for the CIA/NSA or sell drugs.

 

Hmm... Well, I have 3 active and being used right now, and my wife has another 3, so 6 total in our small household.  And that's today.

 

Just sayin'...

 

BTW, Fr. is "Father".

 

Scott

My question to you is how do you know this? Just like we can debate one way how does your pessimistic view override ours? I'll be looking for you if an announcement is made by Microsoft. Many around here are closer to the MS camp than you realize. People aren't just shooting off at the mouth with nothing but popcorn, soda, and a nice easy chair to back it up. Just the same this is a forum for discussion so let's discuss. Many are like me in the IT industry and have an insight as to what's going on. Some here are former/current Microsoft employees. There's nothing wrong with discussion everytime Microsoft does something. The machine most of us are typing on is Windows based. 90% of your work environment is MS Server based. Microsoft plays a big role in all of our lives with or without Flight Simulator. I'd like to er on the side brighter days are in store for our community and Microsoft with Bill Gates involved again. A half baked Ballmer attempt at controlling our hobby through Flight shouldn't be the marker MS uses for the franchise's viability. A better route is for them to look at Lockheed, Flight Sim's competition (XPlane), Avsim, and the various other sites and add-ons built around their platform. With Bill involved you never know what will happen. It's like having Steve Jobs back at Apple and you saw how that went, we got the iPhone/iPad which brought that company back from the brink of bankruptcy.

 

My question for you would be, how do you know that so many of the things you have noted in previous posts are directly Ballmer's fault? I for one am not a huge fan of him either, but I feel like all I ever read from you is why it is his fault that Windows 8 is so "bad" and why Flight "failed (for the record, I'm not saying they are perfect products)."

 

Is it really his "fault" that the Windows start screen changed with 8? Did he really just "slap on" Metro (which is really "Modern UI," by the way...) onto Windows 7, or did the team actually go and painfully optimize lots of the code heavily (I'd say it's optimized considering the compatibility issues with some programs)? Was it his decision of what game to make next at Microsoft Studios when Flight was conceived? Was it his idea to make the Xbox One the way it is? I somehow doubt that the CEO of a company as large as Microsoft makes what could be considered minor decisions. There are project leads and creative directors that get hired and assigned to specific products for a reason. There is so much going on at Microsoft that I don't think Steve ever even knew that Flight existed. The lead at Microsoft Studios might want a game developed because he sees that they need to bring more money into that department. The studio then decides on a project and puts together a team. Steve may never even know or care what the product is, though.

 

I don't think Ballmer left anything to clean up. I think Microsoft just needs a CEO that will take the time to evaluate the bigger products a bit more and talk directly to the project leads for those products. I'm not at all saying that Steve has made the best overall decisions for the company, but then again, running a giant software company of this nature can't possibly be an easy task.

Hmm... Well, I have 3 active and being used right now, and my wife has another 3,

 

It looks like you and your wife need 1 more mobile device each to meet the "average" 4-5 per consumer (not per household).  But it does appear you are not "average" if you believe this survey for US, the average is 1.57 devices: http://gigaom.com/2012/10/22/the-average-us-subscriber-owns-1-57-mobile-devices/

 

I could see an "average" hitting 2 devices (phone and pad/tablet) given enough time, but 4-5 device per "average" consumer seems highly optimistic ... ok, I'd even suggest pretty unrealistic.  

 

Also, given enough technology development, I could see the current trend of multi-mobile devices actually declining back to just 1 mobile device especially with recent progress with projection touch technology (one small device projecting a large touch sensitive image doing away with the need for larger table/ipad type devices).

They are elderly so I figured it'll be interesting to see how they work with a brand new Windows 8 PC that is supposed to be a better end user interface and more efficient.

 

Ha- both my wife and I are beyond 80 and we have yet to even figure out XP let alone Win 8. 

Fr Bill et al - please pray for a long life for our current XP hardware ! ( PC & Laptop)

january

Between my partner and I we have 1 desktop, 2 laptops, 1 tablet and 2 smartphones. 

 

It used to be I bought a new Desktop every year but for the first time ever my desktop is now 3 years old because no reason to upgrade from Windows 7 or FSX as nothing to go to. So obviously that desktop budget is going into other things. Also the last Apple computer I owned was an Apple IIe and now for the first time in over 20 years their are 4 Apple devices in my house.

 

At work I have another iPad Mini and a 5 year old Apple Mac running Windows XP

Between my partner and I we have 1 desktop, 2 laptops, 1 tablet and 2 smartphones.

 

Laptops aren't consider "mobile devices" even though they are portable, they run the same desktop OS.  But in your case, 2 people and 3 mobile devices, so you're right at the current "average" consumer with 1.5 device.

 

But my wife and I are in the same 3 mobile devices (2 iPhones and one iPad) so I guess we're right on the 1.5 average mark also.  We have 6 desktop (3 Windows based PCs, iMac, MacPro/bootcamp, gateway laptop).  Oh, and a PS3 console that we've never ever played a game on, just use it for Netflix and as a BD player.

 

The Desktop is most definitely NOT dead in our household ... contrary to all the rumors of the desktop's death, it's still the computing device we both use the most out of all the devices we own.  If I look at the actual hours used per day, our mobile device usage would be 5% while our desktop device usage would be 95%.  Rarely see any survey data showing relative desktop/mobile usage numbers in terms of hours per day/week ... market growth equations don't seem to care about usage duration information only that it's being used.

It looks like you and your wife need 1 more mobile device each to meet the "average" 4-5 per consumer (not per household). But it does appear you are not "average" if you believe this survey for US, the average is 1.57 devices: http://gigaom.com/20...mobile-devices/

 

You missed the "...and that's today." part.  I understand that we're not the current average and wasn't suggesting that we were - I'm actually a bit surprised to see the current average is as high as it is, in fact.  The point was that it's not all that far-fetched a statement as multi-mobile becomes more the norm than the exception.

 

 

 

So obviously that desktop budget is going into other things.

 

Here as well.  As desktop advances slow, there're fewer reasons to upgrade, while the capabilities and versatility of mobile devices continues to expand. 

 

 

The Desktop is most definitely NOT dead in our household ... contrary to all the rumors of the desktop's death, it's still the computing device we both use the most out of all the devices we own. 

 

 

It's not that we don't need or use our desktops any longer, and in fact we'll probably re-invest later this year as neither of us could live without ours, but we're certainly spending more on mobile these days - especially when data costs are factored in.  And Rob, you (like us) are obviously a power user.  Much of the world is going in the other direction, as they never used their desktops for much more than messaging and web browsing.

 

Scott

and a PS3 console that we've never ever played a game on, just use it for Netflix and as a BD player.

 

:Shocked:  :Shocked:  :Shocked:  :Shocked:

 

Why didn't you just get a Roku or something?

 

 

Why didn't you just get a Roku or something?

 

The PS3 BD player is actually one of the best out there.

 

Scott

The PS3 BD player is actually one of the best out there.

 

Scott

I know. But just about anything with a Netflix sticker on it works good.

Much of the world is going in the other direction, as they never used their desktops for much more than messaging and web browsing.

 

I'm not sure that part of "the world" actually had a desktop computer in the first place ... what I see in the mobile device growth are a lot of "new" computer users, people that never had a computer prior to the mobile device.  So it's tapping into a new market of user in addition to a traditional existing computer user.  But as with all taps, there is a point of "tapped out" where growth levels out ... not there yet, but it's not some endless consumer tap.

 

What's ironic is the usage of mobile device ... #1 spot is games (by a long shot, 2X), then web browsing, then facebook (comprising 70% of the devices primary usage) ... productivity usage of mobile devices is >2%.

 

The desktop world hasn't changed much because so much energy has been focused on the mobile world ... the desktop world is alive, well, and kicking ... I think Microsoft and others are claiming it dead because it's a justification to NOT allocate any resources to continue development of the desktop ... Win8 was an obvious example of "not caring about the desktop computer".  It's as if someone at Microsoft said "one or the other, but NOT both" in reference to Mobile and Desktop.

 

I'm actually surprised desktop computing is still as healthy as it is given how few resources are being aimed at it.  I view Microsoft as a company that can't build a direction and can't stay focused ... their development tools are a big reflection of this -- especially on the web side of software development.  

 

Every month Microsoft would release a "new and improved technology" that us developers were supposed to rush to adopt and drop whatever it was we were currently using and magically migrate it all over .... and just as we finished the migration process, Microsoft would announce that technology dead and here is the "new and improved technology" ... it got silly.

 

Most development companies can't just re-tool all the existing code/sources without any kind of associated costs and consequences ... but Microsoft seemed think this was OK (no migration tools provided).  End result was more and more developers just moved away from Microsoft development tools ... and Apple's mobile market was emerging so that looked very attractive to developers - steady shift.

 

Microsoft mis-managed what should have been VERY important resource to them, the software engineers using their tools/platforms ... fast forward to today and it's almost as if Microsoft is "punishing" those remain developer still using their tools ... the compatibility and breaking changes in IE11 for example is mind boggling ... but I guess Microsoft just expect us to add MORE code to check and adjust issues specific to support IE11 claiming that IE11 is 100% W3C complaint ... wait a minute they claimed IE10 was 100% complaint, and for that matter IE9?  After awhile this abuse starts to get old and most developer have real work to do rather constantly patch up stuff that Microsoft breaks or terminates.  Sadly, it wasn't always like this ... right around 2000 is when I started to see a company that lost it's focus and direction.  

 

 

 

Why didn't you just get a Roku or something?

 

PS3 came with the Sony TV, bundle deal, didn't really want the PS3 to be honest, but as it turns out, it's been the best BD player we've ever owned ... had to run ethernet cable to the PS3, the wifi setup just wasn't working well and we couldn't get any good image quality for SuperHD titles on Netflix ... night and day difference in image quality when we switch to ethernet hookup for PS3 ... still not as good as BD image quality, but pretty close.