Malaysian Flight 370

[G MIDY 101]

A fire onboard could have cut the power to the transponder. All that is known for sure and certain is that the transponder quit squawking.

 

It is only an "assumption" that it may have been deliberately turned off...

 

Of course a specific (probably electrical) fire would and this is true but for the plane to then change course and shoot to FL450 (way beyond design limits, even more so in it's configuration) still then goes unexplained. I think there is a lot more to this than a fire because so much of this story based on what we know then does not make sense. It is my opinion that something was happening at the point just after the loss of transponder which lead to the aircraft losing control, we can only speculate what that was. Personally, I don't think it is any coincidence that there is a loss of transponder followed by extreme changes in altitude and course direction. Pilots encountering any emergency are taught to Aviate, Navigate, Investigate, Communicate and Secure. None of those principles were acted upon at anytime after the transponder was turned off which suggests to me either the pilots were not in control of the aircraft or there was some malicious intent from someone but I don't think it's appropriate to say much more on that.

 

In that configuration at FL450 the aircraft would be bleeding airspeed, the wing would be close if practically at the point of stalling, the engines almost starved of air for adequate combustion and this explains for me the loss of almost 20,000ft in altitude afterwards. At that altitude we are talking of a near 1/2 drop in air density compared to it's original cruise altitude, the cabin pressure would be way beyond limits. I just cannot see a 777 in that configuration being able to hold that altitude for long and no pilot too would therefore ever consider trying to fly that high under any circumstances. These actions do not explain a fire scenario for me - a fire inflight is a critical, emergency situation which would require the pilots to land immediately, not to climb to such an altitude. The hypoxia scenario is also plausible but how is the aircraft flying some 4-5 hours later in the wrong direction having undergone such extreme changes in altitude.

 

Any fire that was bad enough to knock out all systems would also surely kill off any satellite communications and we know they were perfectly able to send data. The 777 also has a RAT which could be lowered to allow for emergency power generation to critical systems of which I believe does not include SATCOM. Personally I believe that there is just no way this 777 could of been placed into an emergency situation bad enough where it was unable to communicate with air traffic control, control it's transponder and critically be unable to land.

 

A good piece of reading in emergency management is QF32 by Richard De Crespigny the captain of the Qantas A380 which suffered an engine explosion.

[psolk 3,040]

It is unknown analysis to 99% of the world, except the experts who need to know...

Great update on ACARS and why it my have been shut down...

Great info on ACARS

KUALA LUMPUR: The Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System (ACARS) cannot be totally disabled from the aircraft as it goes in standby mode much like a telephone on flight mode.

That is why, despite being turned off, satellites could still “ping” the ACARS on Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 after it went off-radar.

 

Pilots use ACARS on a normal day only to receive short messages and weather reports, or to send short massages.

 

They can even use a three-step selection process which can alert air traffic controllers of any emergency or hijacking, as long as there is battery life.

 

According to a commercial airline Boeing 777 pilot who requested anonymity, ACARS is a system that works on Very High Frequency (VHF) and Satellite Communication (SATCOMM).

 

“It is basically like an SMS, which we use to send data to and receive data from the ground. What happens is that when you power up, ACARS will establish communication with the satellite.

 

“Pilots can’t (totally) disable the communication because every aircraft will have a unique code with the satellite. You use SATCOMM when the VHF communication is out of range.

 

“So you can turn off the ACARS but not the connection, that is why you have the ‘ping’ indicating you have a connection and also the aircraft is flying,” he said, adding that the network connection will still be present.

 

He added that it is only when the plane is powered up or flying that the ‘ping’ is established but it would be at different locations since the aircraft is moving, which would explain the pings or handshakes of MH370.

 

Another commercial pilot also familiar with the Boeing 777 concurred, saying that ACARS was like any computer, which actually goes on standby mode when you switch it off.

 

“ACARS is a communication system, not a Global Positioning System (GPS); it does not give positions but only transfer messages.

 

“It is Mas procedure to switch ACARS, VHF, and High Frequency selection off but this is only for flights to China as the service provider for Mas does not cover China. Some if not all pilots switch them all off for a while and then later switch SATCOMM back on to force the system into SATCOMM mode.”

 

When asked what steps could have been taken in the case of a hijacking or emergency, the pilot said that in the cockpit, one VHF receiver is always in emergency frequency 121.5 for air defence and other aircraft to call.

 

“I have never approached the ACARS possibility but for the transponder I can't figure out why it was switched off with MH370.

 

“When in an emergency, the pilot has to change transponder code depending whether it's an emergency or hijacking or others.

[Great Ozzie 101]

 

 

why does the last sighting on military radar seem to indicate that it was travelling north west? Why would it suddenly turn south?

 

I would say that is one of the mysteries about this flight.

[vololiberista 205]

Of course a specific (probably electrical) fire would and this is true but for the plane to then change course and shoot to FL450 (way beyond design limits

It's now accepted that the a/c did not fly to FL450. It was a comment based on a distant radar triangulation. And, there was no proof that the blip was even that of 370.

 

As for Mas procedure to turn off ACARS on routes to China. Well, well!!

Edited March 25, 2014 by n4gix
Trimmed excessive quote!

[FLEX1978 373]

What's sad is even when found we'll never hear what initially happened on the plane after that last handshake with ATC. All that would be heard is the last hour or so. The mystery may never be solved as to how this whole situation started.

 

The last 3 hours of CVR will be recorded. More importantly the full data from the FDR will paint a good picture, (if found) everything including both pilots inputs on the yoke and every switch flipped of cascading failure.  

 

The FDR should give investigators a very accurate picture of what happened - be it fire,depressurization, hijacking or Aliens.

 

Anyway, if those last 3 hours are silent it tells everyone more then enough.

 

Regards

[Jim Young 2,356]

I see that nobody has responded to my question concerning the apparent "northwest" track of the plane when it was last detected by miilitary radar. Someone please put my mind at rest :smile:

It's just another theory which most everyone has now debunked as the aircraft went south into the middle of the Indian Ocean where it will be difficult, if not impossible, to locate and it went to a location where there are no radars (where one could go back and look at records). I still subscribe to the northwest track theory as a pilot can simply turn off the transponder and fly under or near another aircraft going northwest and it has a good chance of getting to its destination without detection. I remember it was several hours after the 777 was suppose to land in China before it was reported as missing. That provides ample opportunity to fly for 7 hours, land, and hide before the announcement is made. ATC and military radars would not be on the lookout for the aircraft either until the aircraft was reported missing. I didn't read or see anything where everyone got excited after 370 turned off the transponders. This was learned only after China reported the aircraft missing and ATC records were checked. The fact that China was initially reporting the aircraft missing and not Malaysia says something IMHO.

 

Best regards,

[psolk 3,040]

As for Mas procedure to turn off ACARS on routes to China. Well, well!!

 

Glad you caught that too!!

[n4gix 4,947]

Folks, when replying to a post...

PLEASE trim the fat off the quote! This thread is already too long and quoting a W A L L of text simply is making it more difficult to read. B)

 

Even better, don't quote at all; use the Reply box instead... :ph34r:

[mganz121 159]

Assuming the hypoxia theory, I ran a test with the PMDG LRX ........... set speed to max at that level without over speeding (about 325kts)...... Flew at 12K from there  ........... That would put it around West of Gregory or Yallatharra AU. if it had the extra fuel. That would mean though it would be flying up t 8:30 hrs. That would mean the search area is to far South if it was a hypoxia scenario.

 

Your conclusion is very flawed. Too low, too slow.

 

EDIT .... Bits snipped at Fr Bill's request.

[Kattz 132]

I still subscribe to the northwest track theory as a pilot can simply turn off the transponder and fly under or near another aircraft going northwest and it has a good chance of getting to its destination without detection. 

 

Agree strongly.  Personal opinion is it's not in the water until the debris or the airframe is located and is in someone's hands.  Otherwise, look elsewhere...

[Great Ozzie 101]

I do watch her live most nights and even she is confused as she has heard from other experts on her program who are still not too sure. I definitely do not subscribe to the reports/data from the Inmarsat satellites.

Yes... somewhat surprising to me to see the good reporting Megyn Kelly has been doing on MH370.

 

But the thing here is Jim, it is not about her understanding or her other guests understanding.  Someone correct me if I am wrong, but as I understand it, Inmarsat engineers worked with the AAIB to come up with the release of the route of MH370.

 

According to an Aviation Week article (Routine Data Analysis Helped Inmarsat Pinpoint MH370's Path) Inmarsat used "groundbreaking but traditional mathematics-based process that was then peer-reviewed by others in the space industry, and indeed contributed to by Boeing."

 

“What we discovered and what we passed to the investigation ... is that the southern path predicted fits very well with the path that’s been indicated by our pings,” McLaughlin says. “To all intents and purposes, there’s no way [the aircraft] went north.”

 

I still subscribe to the northwest track theory as a pilot can simply turn off the transponder and fly under or near another aircraft going northwest and it has a good chance of getting to its destination without detection.

I think this would be great if it was part of a Tom Clancy movie.  But just how does a B777 make an intercept of another Heavy?  Then at some point it has to peel off without being detected (or colliding with the other heavy it is shadowing).  This would require a country's government (like India / Pakistan etc.) to be part of a conspiracy to hijack an airplane for it to go "unnoticed".

 

It's just another theory which most everyone has now debunked as the aircraft went south into the middle of the Indian Ocean

That the military radar indicated that MH370 was traveling to the northwest (thru the Malacca Strait)?

 

Doesn't appear that has been debunked.  For example, just have a look here at the BBC "final hours" graphic.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26728045

 

 

 

[mganz121 159]

A news topic just in:-

 

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: The Malaysian authorities released new details on Tuesday of the last satellite communications by Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, even as furious family members and friends of the plane’s passengers broke through police lines in Beijing and marched to the Malaysian Embassy.

Hishammuddin Hussein, the defence minister and acting transport minister, said that the plane appeared to have sent a last, partial satellite signal eight minutes after a previously disclosed electronic “handshake” between the plane and a satellite at 8.11am on March 8. The incomplete signal represented a “partial handshake,” he said.

 

“At this time, this transmission is not understood and is subject to further ongoing work,” Mr Hishammuddin said.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airline-jet-malaysia-releases-details-of-last-contact-with-mh370-20140326-zqmzm.html#ixzz2x1LrYRCB

 

 

Now the obvious question here must be "Is this partial handshake part of the normal aircraft shut down procedure"? If it is, then I will start to get a little more paranoiac and accept that this bird was deliberately and skilfully hijacked for dangerous reasons.

 

If not I will remain convinced that Inmarsat (along with their experts and in conjunction with all the other experts they had been working with before publishing their final information) really do know what they are doing.

[tf51d 284]

Your conclusion is very flawed. Too low, too slow.

 

EDIT .... Bits snipped at Fr Bill's request.

If you read my post it was based on the hypoxia theory (Which I personally don't believe), in which case they would need to get down around 10000-12000ft, Malaysian radar reports them at 12K after a turn to he west. Assuming they passed out at some point after they turned South over the Malacca Strait, the fastest they could have gone at that altitude was 325kt IAS without over speeding (Check it out yourself). At that speed those are the locations the plane would have been at the time the last ping was heard (00:11Z)  Only if the plane climbed back up to cruise could it have gotten as far as the search area. If O2 was the issue no way that would have happened. 

[Kattz 132]

What's really sad regarding the media coverage is just how WRONG most of it has been.  How many people here have heard something re this subject on public media or read something other than AVSIM that has made you stop and say "Wow.  I'm not even a pilot and I know better than that..."?  Some of the CNN coverage was just so cereberally-challenged that someone shoulda been fired.  Sorry, rant mode off.  Just rolled my eyes over something on the TV just now.

[Matthew Kane 1,343]

I am going to wait for this investigation to finish because with all the different sides of speculation it is almost like people arguing over a Superbowl Pool at this point. 
 

Better to back away and let the experts sort it out, they will go public with it when they are ready.