Malaysian Flight 370

[january 19]

 

 

Well, I agree on the premise that whatever happened to MH370 is the result of an extremely unlikely event,

In 1996, scientists at Columbia University calculated that the odds of an airplane being struck by a meteoroid were 1 in 10 over a 30 year period. 

Since then the number of aircraft in the skies has considerably increased with longer times aloft - and they are flying higher where the risk is greater.

One wonders WHEN not IF, a meteoroid will tangle with an airplane.

january

[KingGhidorah 209]

But I think you should check your logic.  Just because what happened to this airplane happens to be unknown doesn't make it any more likely that this was the one, that validates that particular statistic.

[G550flyer 1,013]

In 1996, scientists at Columbia University calculated that the odds of an airplane being struck by a meteoroid were 1 in 10 over a 30 year period. 

Since then the number of aircraft in the skies has considerably increased with longer times aloft - and they are flying higher where the risk is greater.

One wonders WHEN not IF, a meteoroid will tangle with an airplane.

january

I myself like to look at things with an open mind and logic. I like the idea of most probable cause. Even when I go to recurrent sims, you get the normal most probable emergencies and what ever failures that seem to be hot with the FAA at the time. Before I started my flying career I was an aircraft electrician. At my location, I was considered the troubleshooting guru for many aircraft systems. From my experience, 99.9 % of the time the problem resulted from the most probable cause based on the symptoms.

 

There were rare times when the 0.1% resulted from something totally unlikely. For example, we had this problem with a fuel transfer pump that failed and needed changing. After replacing the pump, the press low light illuminated but the pump could be heard running. Good power and ground plus the pump could be heard runing in the tank. After removing and inspecting the pump, we noticed that the last number in the part number was different. The pump that was sent to us looked identically the same, but was designed to run in reverse. In another situation, we had issues with a generator that operated on the ground, but did not inflight. There was a over current fault flagged by the bit test. After some long troubleshooting, it turned out that the wires were chaffed and grounded out once the wings flexed upward after takeoff.

 

In both of those situations, the most probable cause were not the issue. No one had ever heard of these or seen them ever happen again during my time. But at any rate, open mindedness and logic would lead to the problem.

 

here is a most probable cause situation. We had a jet that was having a generator problem after a flight. The bit test flagged a differential current fault. To me that meant that the system was seeing a large amperage difference between the 3 phases prior to the main GEN contactor. With only the diff current fault, its either a open in one of the phases or a current monitoring system fault. A quick check of power on each phase from the generator and ohming out the donut current transformers resulted in a bad transformer in the monitoring system. Once the part was ordered and swapped, the problem was back again. Logic said that I had verified everything before so I went immediatly for the transformer. After a quick look, I noticed that the guy who changed the bad transformer installed the new one backwards. With any problem, I all ways ask were there any recent maintanence done to the aircraft. Seems about 50% of the problems I found were Mx induced.

 

With the information you have at the time, you have to go with whats logical with an open mind like a detective. You work your way through the usual suspects out to the unlikely. When there isn't much info to go on, it's all speculation.

[january 19]

 

 

Just because what happened to this airplane happens to be unknown doesn't make it any more likely that this was the one, that validates that particular statistic.

I'm not proposing that what happened in the disappearance of 370 was caused by a meteoroid strike. Simply that such an event seems to fit with the little info that is available to the public.

A proper investigation will consider ALL possibilities- especially in the knowledge that frequently the solution is not the obvious. 

And I have to admit that I was quite surprised upon doing some basic research into meteoroid "hit" probability. We live in a world under bombardment, protected only by earth's atmosphere. When you climb out of that protection it becomes a different game!

january 

[pete_auau 1,159]

This latter was reported at the time by a worker on an oil platform offshore from Vietnam in the S China Sea, who thought it was a plane going down.

 

Yea heard this when it first disappeared An x Canada pilot rang up   explaining this  report  that an oil rig worker witnessed  this event,  don't know  if  anything  came of it if  they ever   questioned  this worker or not

[KingGhidorah 209]

I'm not proposing that what happened in the disappearance of 370 was caused by a meteoroid strike. Simply that such an event seems to fit with the little info that is available to the public.

 

 

If one uses their imagination, an infinite number of things fit the known "facts" that have been released to the public, including killer bees and ninjas.  Ever since seeing a questionable Youtube video purporting to show a meteor hurtling through the sky near a parachutist, you've been obsessed with the idea of meteorites as the source of damage to the airplane which caused all of this to unfold in the way that it did, which is in and of itself, is a big swirl of question marks.  If nothing else, it's putting the cart before the horse.  I'm not going to argue with you any more on this.  Frankly, I'm sorry I entered into the discussion, because people fall in love with their pet theory, and are going to believe what they want to believe, regardless of what anybody else says.   All I can say, is if they find the wreckage and are able to determine a fuselage puncture coming from an external source, then maybe it becomes time to talk about the possibility of meteorites, but before that, I don't think you can press the case that meteorites are at all a viable theory for serious consideration to those trying to determine the cause of this situation. To do so strikes me as folly.  I'm going back to Flight Sim talk now...

[january 19]

-----I don't think you can press the case that meteorites are at all a viable theory for serious consideration

 

The scientists at Columbia University who proposed the meteoroid theory for the downing of TWA 800 must have been serious since they published their investigation & NAMES in the New York Times.

I'm not a mathemetician nor astrophysics scientist so I bow to their expertise. 

Neither do I have any preconceived notion as to what happened to MH370.

But an investigation is likely a farce if possibilities are ruled out because they "seem improbable".

Worth pointing out too, that more airplanes are flying today than ever before for longer hours at higher altitudes than a few years ago. 40,000' is now commonplace even on runs as short as 400 miles.

Also worth pointing out that meteoroids are 50-60 % more common in equatorial regions than polar regions. (from the NASA astrophysics Data Division: Ian Halliday- Canada Dominion Observatory.)

Kuala Lumpur is close to the equator!

Yes, meteorite collision is a long shot- but so is any other theory as to what happened to MH370.

january

[Christopher Low 5,353]

I noticed on the news this morning that there were four different "ping" locations that were being searched by that Bluefin 21 sub. How far apart are those four? What I am trying to say here is.....how can there be four different locations for the transmitter? Or are the sources for those four pings not necessarily something from airliner wreckage?

[psolk 3,040]

January,

Your "logic" is so flawed it is actually aggravating.  Just because you don't know something doesn't make all probabilities equal.  When investigating/troubleshooting you will still follow a set flow based on KISS and probabilities.  

#1. Keep it simple stupid  (KISS)   I forget the # but the % of problems that are solved by the simplest solution first is mind blowing.  

#2.  If it is not obvious via KISS then look at probabilities.  if 60% of plane crashes are pilot error or human intervention and 40% are mechanical failure then let's rule out what causes 60% first, then rule out what causes 40% then break down the individual statistics of WHAT KIND of human error or intervention, what kind of mechanical failures etc.  

 

What in # 1 & 2 could cause this scenario, what combination of 1& 2, what combination of failures in # 2 etc etc etc.  

 

So is there a possibility it is a meteor?  Yes.  Is it equally probable considering it has never happened before opposed to all the other documented events with precedent they will be comparing this to?  Absolutely not!  You can't just make something up and then say because you don't know what happened this is just as probable as anything else.  No, it is not just as likely that it hit a meteor or was abducted by aliens as it is that there was a series of mechanical failures or nefarious human intervention which have their roots in precedence, statistics and prior events.

 

Hey, I think it hit a time-space continuum and is in Dr. Who's policebox!!!  It is just as probable as anything else right???

[G550flyer 1,013]

The scientists at Columbia University who proposed the meteoroid theory for the downing of TWA 800 must have been serious since they published their investigation & NAMES in the New York Times.

I'm not a mathemetician nor astrophysics scientist so I bow to their expertise. 

Neither do I have any preconceived notion as to what happened to MH370.

But an investigation is likely a farce if possibilities are ruled out because they "seem improbable".

Worth pointing out too, that more airplanes are flying today than ever before for longer hours at higher altitudes than a few years ago. 40,000' is now commonplace even on runs as short as 400 miles.

Also worth pointing out that meteoroids are 50-60 % more common in equatorial regions than polar regions. (from the NASA astrophysics Data Division: Ian Halliday- Canada Dominion Observatory.)

Kuala Lumpur is close to the equator!

Yes, meteorite collision is a long shot- but so is any other theory as to what happened to MH370.

january

I routinely fly between 40,000 and 45,000 unless I'm only going a very short distance or a heavy traffic route. I would like to know how many cases are out there that you can assign the meteoroid theory to based on information?

[vololiberista 205]

 Yes - quite true for TWA 800, which blew up while airborne. 

But suppose a meteoroid the size of a bullet (or smaller) went thru the equipment bay and a fuel tank without physically exploding & destroying the aircraft. 

 

The result might be instant depressurization, loss of all instrumentation and a jet of flaming JP4 as the fuel was instantly sucked out by the atmosphere at FL350. This latter was reported at the time by a worker on an oil platform offshore from Vietnam in the S China Sea, who thought it was a plane going down.

 

january

No! Assuming the hole(s) were small then it would take some minutes for the a/c to depressurise.

I'm not proposing that what happened in the disappearance of 370 was caused by a meteoroid strike. Simply that such an event seems to fit with the little info that is available to the public.

A proper investigation will consider ALL possibilities- especially in the knowledge that frequently the solution is not the obvious. 

And I have to admit that I was quite surprised upon doing some basic research into meteoroid "hit" probability. We live in a world under bombardment, protected only by earth's atmosphere. When you climb out of that protection it becomes a different game!

january 

Equally abduction by aliens fits!!

Your reasoning is typical conspiracy theory rubbish.

[january 19]

Wow- I feel a little like how Leonardo Da Vinci  may have felt after he proposed the crazy idea that man might someday fly!

Except that a meteoroid hit bringing down an airliner is NOT my idea.

 

It was proposed by two Columbia University scientists- Physics Prof. Charles Hailey and Astronomy Prof. David Helfand. They published a letter in the New York Times on Sept 19 1996 proposing the POSSIBILITY that a meteoroid might have brought down TWA Flight 800.

In that article they pointed out that "approx. 3000 meteors a day with the requisite mass strike earth."

 

The fact that such an event has "apparently " never happened, does not preclude it from eventually occurring.Those who deny the possibility are betting against the croupier !!!

If something CAN happen, sooner or later it will !!! Ask the owners of houses and cars that have been hit by meteorites!

january

 

[january 19]

Bloomberg News is reporting Bluefin 21 is, today, on its final search of the area where pinger signals were thought to have been heard.

Bloomberg in the same item also reports the following-

 

The optimism injected into the search after pinger signals were picked up may also prove ill-founded because the sounds could have come from sources other than the emergency beacons, said Peter Herzig, executive director of the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Oceanographic Research in Kiel, Germany.

 

All of which reminds one of the quote attributed to Satchel Paige-

"it ain't over 'till it's over."

january

[jfri 42]

Bloomberg News is reporting Bluefin 21 is, today, on its final search of the area where pinger signals were thought to have been heard.

Bloomberg in the same item also reports the following-

 

The optimism injected into the search after pinger signals were picked up may also prove ill-founded because the sounds could have come from sources other than the emergency beacons, said Peter Herzig, executive director of the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Oceanographic Research in Kiel, Germany.

 

All of which reminds one of the quote attributed to Satchel Paige-

"it ain't over 'till it's over."

january

 

According to the information I have received in the news where I live they analyzed the signals for several days and came to the conclusion that it indeed was the black box from 370. Experts said that it's hard to think of something else than a black box.

The last thing I heard was that bluefin had a setback and interrupted the search. Since that I see no more news about it here.

[Christopher Low 5,353]

How many black boxes were on the airliner? There were four "pinger" locations in the current narrow search area alone. They can't ALL be the black box! Which begs the question......are any of them?