Psychic ones, no doubt.

 

The truth is (and it is probably the only truth right now) is that *nobody has a clue*

 

Some links to the numerous 777 drivers' debunking would be great

 

Thanks

 

jake

Go to airliners.net they are in the later threads probably thread 35+ on.

Key inaccuracies included procedures, pulling busses to troubleshoot, diverting to Langkawi when there are multiple closer airfields capable of handling a 777, climbing to extinguish a fire, disabling tcas, not donning a mask to prevent incapacitation, the procedure and time required to Don a mask is seconds, requires one hand and is designed to take seconds, there were a lot of holes poked in the theory and I initially thought it made the most sense too...

 

Biggest hole was if there was smoke/fire you would divert to closest capable airfield full stop

 

http://www.businessi...-cockpit-2014-3

 

As requested straight from 777 pilots

 

Some excerpts

plane as the one that disappeared, the 777-200ER.

These pilots point out that smoke in the cockpit is one of the most common emergencies that pilots train for and that 777s are equipped with full-face oxygen masks that the pilots would have put on before they did anything else. They also say that, unless the pilots ignored their training, they would then have run through a checklist of tasks that would have included descending rapidly and making an emergency radio call.

We wrote about the impressions of these pilots here.

And here's another, more detailed reaction that we received from a pilot who has flown the 777 (the pilot asked us to keep his employer and his name anonymous):

As a former B777 pilot, I find the "plausible" theory you published is not in line with the facts as they have been reported. I am a professional pilot with type ratings in the DC-9 (MD88, MD90), B757, 767 and 777 and I served as a Captain at a major US international airline. I feel I have some insight to add to the discussion about MH370.

First off, the idea that a wheel-well fire could have burned unnoticed for over an hour after takeoff is not plausible. The B777 has wheel-well overheat/fire-detection systems that would have sounded an alarm for the cockpit crew soon after takeoff, were that an issue. Additionally, the cockpit is equipped with full-face O2 masks that provide a safe breathing atmosphere to every pilot. At the first sign of ANY smoke, the pilots are trained to drop everything and immediately, without hesitation, don those rapid-don masks that are designed to be easily donned with one hand and immediately secure themselves to the face. After that, the Captain will delegate duties ... one pilot flies the plane and handles communications, while the other works the problem, using checklists designed to narrow the issue down and address it.

While the pilot working the problem is busy, the pilot flying will turn the aircraft toward the nearest appropriate airport, begin a descent, and communicate with ATC and/or any airplanes in the area. While it is true that the checklists may, in the event of an electrical fire, have the pilots de-power certain systems or circuits, these steps are down the list; the pilots would have already declared the emergency and turned toward the nearest appropriate airport.

I can think of no plausible reason why the crew never made any attempt to contact ATC during the event, except that whoever was in control of the cockpit did not wish to communicate.

In the case of MH370, a turn was made, but no descent was initiated at that time, nor was any communication with ATC made.

Additionally, the aircraft has been reported to have climbed to FL450, and descended to FL250 later in the flight. If the flight crew had been incapacitated, this could not have occurred.

Finally, a fire that incapacitated everyone onboard would have, in every scenario I can logically come up with, destroyed the aircraft soon thereafter. I reference the Swissair Flight 111, an MD11 that crashed off the coast of Halifax, Nova Scotia, on Sept. 2, 1998. From the time of initial cockpit indication of smoke until the crew was completely incapacitated was 14 minutes; the aircraft crashed soon thereafter. In this incident, the crew had ample time to communicate with ATC, and was running checklists until the very end. Indeed, the crew elected to stay airborne and continue running checklists while dumping fuel, instead of landing immediately; this decision has been credited with the loss of all passengers and crew, and is exactly why landing immediately is the primary goal in an airborne fire.

For a fire to have been burning from the wheel well for over an hour before detection is not within the realm of realistic possibilities, in my opinion.

While I agree that finding accurate information has been difficult with the Malaysian government's recalcitrance and affection for misinformation, everything I've read points to a takeover event that was planned and executed by persons unknown. And while some of the facts can point toward the [smoke in the cockpit scenario], to believe that this scenario is correct in the face of all the information would indicate a gross negligence on the part of the cockpit crew, and a refusal to follow basic emergency procedures.

While we all have our own biases and hopes concerning this tragic event, as a pilot who flies in this theater of the world often, I am truly concerned at the Malaysian government's reluctance to disseminate information, include other governments, or address their lax security procedures. Why were two passengers allowed to board the aircraft using stolen passports? Why did the first officer have a history of allowing passengers to ride in the cockpit of his aircraft while in flight? Where is the journalistic outcry for these obvious and dangerous breaches in security, and why aren't you, as a journalist, using your voice to call attention to it? Regardless of what is finally determined to be the proximate cause of this tragedy (which I readily admit could still be an accident) the big story should be that the Malaysian government is putting the lives of its passengers in extreme danger by not enforcing universal rules for security and flight safety.

In a second email, this pilot expanded on how he is thinking about what might have happened:

I don’t know what happened to MH370 any more than anyone else who wasn’t aboard. But here’s how my head works with this. I try to find the simplest, least complex explanation that works with ALL THE AVAILABLE FACTS/INFORMATION, and that doesn’t need “added” leaps or assertions or events to have happened that we do not have any info about.

For instance, several things point to an “event,” not an “accident.” The lack of communication, the programmed turn, the climb to FL450 and descent to FL250, and the continuation of the aircraft’s existence as a whole object, powered and uncrashed, for about seven-plus hours after the disappearance.

The plane's ACARS and transponder were physically shut off, by some accounts before the last radio communication from the crew. We know that the aircraft remained powered and in controlled flight for many hours after this point. The aircraft’s route of flight in the FMS was changed by someone in the cockpit, as was its altitude, both up and down. There was no Mayday issued, and the aircraft did not answer repeated radio calls from ATC.

Let’s look at a smoke or fire “accident.” I do not believe, based on what we know now, that there was smoke or a fire. Why? Because there is no indication of fire, or smoke in the cockpit, during the time the aircraft was still in contact, and there is no indication of "fire" behavior in the aircraft's flight path. Additionally, normal emergency protocols train the crew to immediately don and wear full-face O2 masks (the B777 is equipped with them), and designate one pilot to fly and talk to everyone (aviate and communicate) while the other pilot runs the checklist and fights the problem. The plane made a sharp left turn, toward land, soon after ATC communication was lost. This was shown to have been pre-programmed into the FMS by the pilots.

The flying pilot’s job in an emergency such as this would be to point the airplane at the closest acceptable runway, announce to the world the nature of the emergency (ATC) and request help, and begin a descent so that at some point during the process, an attempt to vent the smoke from the cabin could be done.

Basically, none of this was done. This leads me to believe that there was no emergency of this type. For this type of emergency to be in play, it indicates that the cockpit crew would have had to willfully refuse to follow their training and checklists to combat the emergency.

Airborne smoke and fire emergencies are extremely serious, and are trained for by every airline crew in the world. In the wake of Swissair 111, which crashed off the coast of Nova Scotia, we know that a flight crew has a very limited period of time in which they must land the plane before disaster ... only 14 minutes in the Swissair tragedy ... yet MH370 continued to fly for more than seven hours after contact was lost. This is yet another clue that points away from an in-flight physical, mechanical, or other type of emergency.

There is evidence that Malaysia Airlines crews often allowed passengers onto the flight deck during flight, which is an indication both of lax safety and security procedures to my western way of thinking, but may be totally permissible at Malaysia Airlines. The FO had allowed some pretty girls to sit in the cockpit during a flight last year. His captain did not protest. This anecdotal info could lend credence to the idea of hijackers gaining access to the flight deck after takeoff.

To my eye, a fire/smoke emergency does not fit what we currently know.

Neither does a missile, engine failure, structural failure, loss of pressurization or any other kind of “accidental” failure. This looks and sounds like a “planned event,” not an “unforeseen emergency.” Mistakes can occur, and the sad truth is that we don’t know what we don’t know … but until something comes to light that supports an “emergency” situation, the simplest and most logical explanation is that someone took control of that airplane and diverted it from it’s planned course and destination

If the fire started in the avionics bay, you would lose the screens and most of your electrics. No need to turn off the transponder or acars. A fire will do that for you.

Regardless, this will probably be the most difficult investigation undertaken, particularly if the wreckage is in the Indian Ocean.

 

Sent from my Mobile thing

Deleted and added to my prior post as requested

"Debunked" is a pretty strong word for:

 

 

 

My first thought when I heard the initial story was hypoxia, and that would explain any of the above.

 

Hook

  

Psychic ones, no doubt.

 

The truth is (and it is probably the only truth right now) is that *nobody has a clue*

 

Some links to the numerous 777 drivers' debunking would be great

 

Thanks

 

jake

Please see post 571

this will probably be the most difficult investigation undertaken, particularly if the wreckage is in the Indian Ocean.

 

The deepest recovery to date was the lifting from the Indian Ocean seabed off Madagascar of wreckage (and bodies) from the SA Airways Helderberg (crashed on 28 Nov 1987). The CVR was recovered from a depth of 16100ft (FDR was never found).

 

The ROV Gemini was used extensively in this operation. In 1988 the same vehicle was used to good effect to recover pieces of the Space Shuttle Challenger, including the crew cabin and the remains of the astronauts.

 

So such an operation, difficult  and challenging as it will be, has been done before. Technology has hopefully come a long way since the 70/80s. I know there have been significant improvements in Side Scan Sonar technology (used to map the ocean floor for diamond deposits, oil, undersea cable routes, and to find old shipwrecks). The whole operation on the Titanic shows what can be done at sea.

 

According to a Professor of Oceanography from Western Australia, the area where this possible wreckage has been spotted is over the Naturalist Ridge, with water depths varying from 9800 feet on the ridge plateau, to 16400 feet in the surrounding ocean plains. So there is still hope to find out what happened.

 

They just have to find the plane as soon as possible, preferably before the CVR and FDR locators stop transmitting.

Most likely something like this occurred:

 

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20110729-0

 

Accidents happen, no matter how good the safety record, maintenance, pilot diligence and crew and logistics planning and preparation.

There has been a certain amount of erroneous information given out during this whole episode.  Attempting to put together any theory that incorporates ALL the erroneous information is bound to draw a few odd conclusions.

 

For example, the aircraft is described as ascending to FL450, but while this hasn't been officially "debunked" it's certainly not considered gospel by everyone.  I'm surprised that a professional pilot would treat this as anything other than conjecture.

 

As for "would divert to closest capable airfield full stop" I believe that's exactly what the pilot did.  Pull up a map of the area.  There are three airports with runways of 10000 feet or more closer than his departure airport.  There are two that don't have mountainous terrain along the flight path.  There is only one that's in Malaysia, the other is in Indonesia, although the Indonesian airport is a bit closer.  If you're a captain flying an aircraft over its normal landing weight and are unsure about the condition of the aircraft, you aren't going to try to land on one of the many 6800 foot runways in between.  The keyword in your sentence is "capable."

 

Hook

Most likely something like this occurred:

 

http://aviation-safety.net/database/record.php?id=20110729-0

 

Accidents happen, no matter how good the safety record, maintenance, pilot diligence and crew and logistics planning and preparation.

The only issue is that if there was a fire of that magnitude that Breached the outer skin of the aircraft the chances of it flying for almost 8 hours afterward would be remarkable.

Just so many unanswered questions...

There has been a certain amount of erroneous information given out during this whole episode.  Attempting to put together any theory that incorporates ALL the erroneous information is bound to draw a few odd conclusions.

 

For example, the aircraft is described as ascending to FL450, but while this hasn't been officially "debunked" it's certainly not considered gospel by everyone.  I'm surprised that a professional pilot would treat this as anything other than conjecture.

 

As for "would divert to closest capable airfield full stop" I believe that's exactly what the pilot did.  Pull up a map of the area.  There are three airports with runways of 10000 feet or more closer than his departure airport.  There are two that don't have mountainous terrain along the flight path.  There is only one that's in Malaysia, the other is in Indonesia, although the Indonesian airport is a bit closer.  If you're a captain flying an aircraft over its normal landing weight and are unsure about the condition of the aircraft, you aren't going to try to land on one of the many 6800 foot runways in between.  The keyword in your sentence is "capable."

 

Hook

Not a pilot here but wouldn't they dump fuel and head straight to the closest airfield? 7000 feet is plenty of distance to stop a 777, in fact at min landing weight Boeing says 2800-5800 feet. Granted it would be tight but better than over flying capable airfields with a fire onboard...

I'm not a pilot either, but what do the procedures say about dumping fuel with a possible fire on board?  Now, what about if you aren't sure exactly where the fire is, or how extensive it might be?

 

I'm still going with the hypoxia idea.  The crew wouldn't necessarily know it was even happening, and it can make someone do odd things, like switching off a transponder when they thought they were setting it to indicate an emergency.

 

I explained it to my wife as, "Hypoxia switches off parts of the brain, and you don't know it's happening. You think everything is fine."  Check out some of the YouTube videos showing its effects. 

 

Hook

 

 

Key inaccuracies included procedures, pulling busses to troubleshoot,

 

Maybe they were not "pulling busses to troubleshoot"

 

Sorry to come back to the Helderberg disiater but;

 

"Around 28 minutes into the recording the CVR indicated that the fire alarm sounded. Fourteen seconds after the fire alarm, the circuit breakers began to pop. Investigators believe that around 80 circuit breakers failed. The CVR cable failed 81 seconds after the alarm. The recording revealed the extent of the fire"

 

A fire of its own accord can cause circuit breakers to pop. And if some investigators are correct, the Helderberg fire started over the South China Sea (pilot conversations with ATC reported some smoke), and it flew a long way before crashing off the coast of Madagascar. The reason for the pilots not diverting to the nearest airport in this incident is shroaded in conspiracy and politics, but at that time the RSA was under heavy sanctions, and there were few friendly airports around to land at.

 

I was on the first flight (enroute SA to Hong Kong) to be allowed to overfly Cambodia and Vietnam, in 1996 after the lifting of sanctions ( I remember the pilots cheery "Well folks looks like we are going to be getting in a lot earlier!"). Before that SAA had a hard time flying around the world.

 

 

Not a pilot here but wouldn't they dump fuel and head straight to the closest airfield? 7000 feet is plenty of distance to stop a 777, in fact at min landing weight Boeing says 2800-5800 feet. Granted it would be tight but better than over flying capable airfields with a fire onboard...

 

Easier said than done, I suspect. (Assuming this is what happened) When you have fire/smoke billowing in the cockpit, the first priority would be to stay alive and maintain control of the aircraft. Not a pilot either but makes logical sense. Whether the assent to FL45 is true (based on Malaysian radar data) it could have been an attempt starve a cabin fire of oxygen. Which may or may not have succeeded, thus the descent to FL295 and regain control of the aircraft. The wild turns on the final waypoints after the last official contact at IGARI are speculative and Malaysian authorities have already stated that they could not confirm this to be 370.

I'm not a pilot either, but what do the procedures say about dumping fuel with a possible fire on board? Now, what about if you aren't sure exactly where the fire is, or how extensive it might be?

 

I'm still going with the hypoxia idea. The crew wouldn't necessarily know it was even happening, and it can make someone do odd things, like switching off a transponder when they thought they were setting it to indicate an emergency.

 

I explained it to my wife as, "Hypoxia switches off parts of the brain, and you don't know it's happening. You think everything is fine." Check out some of the YouTube videos showing its effects.

 

Hook

Easier said than done, I suspect. (Assuming this is what happened) When you have fire/smoke billowing in the cockpit, the first priority would be to stay alive and maintain control of the aircraft. Not a pilot either but makes logical sense. Whether the assent to FL45 is true (based on Malaysian radar data) it could have been an attempt starve a cabin fire of oxygen. Which may or may not have succeeded, thus the descent to FL295 and regain control of the aircraft. The wild turns on the final waypoints after the last official contact at IGARI are speculative and Malaysian authorities have already stated that they could not confirm this to be 370.

Good points guys didn't even THINK about fuel dump/ fire procedures...

 

Mark, I think the one thing the pilots have been saying is they would never climb to put out a fire, especially beyond the operating ceiling of the AC where without forced O2 the masks wouldn't work... Not to say we can predict what happens in that situation but I do think they have said that is nowhere in the fire handling procedures.

I don't believe the ascent to 45,000 feet is reliable, but even if it was, from everything I read burning valuable time to climb and starve a fire would be the last thing they would do. And if the fire/smoke was so critical that they were unable to communicate, or really any fire for that matter, their objective would be to get the aircraft down as soon as possible, not pick and choose runways that may be more "suitable" or "easier" but are further away - it seems that in the event of an airborne fire, the potential consequences of which pilots are very aware, your primary worry would be the fire and landing the plane. Secondary would be the potential difficulty of the terrain, and a runway that was a few thousand feet shorter than you'd prefer.

 

I don't mean this sarcastically but would an experienced pilot confronted with a fire consider it anything other than a very serious, if not one of the most serious airborne emergencies, as opposed to a manageable problem where he can simply choose a more "accommodating" runway a greater distance away when other runways are closer?

 

The idea of poisonous fumes from the lithium batteries being transported does intrigue me, though.

Earlier in post 541 I was talking about my expereince last night with the PMDG 777 and how I managed to fail ALL electronics, and ended up over the Malacca straights with nothing but a whisky compass and standby instruments. Here is how good the PMDG Sim is;

 

The QRH checklist for cargo fire is;

 

Arm the cargo fire discharge bottles

Hold the discharge button for 1s

Set landing alt to 8000 (to minimise extinguisher agent leakage from the cargo compartment)

Plan to land at nearest airport

 

Then there is a note!!!

 

"NOTE Equipment cooling normal mode is inoperative. After 30 minutes of operations at low altitude and low cabin differential pressure electronic equipment and displays may fail."

 

That is exactly what happend in the PMDG sim. I did not notice that equipment cooling had gone to override, I had dived to 5000 feet, and all my electronics failed 30 mins later. I remember thinking "what a situation to be in. No navigational displays, no speed tapes, Vref settings, no comms, no FMC, LNAV gone". With a crippled plane like that, and possibly a smoke-filled cockpit, it would not be a pleasant situation to be in for real. I had Phuket airport close by, but was down to good old-fashioned dead-reckoning navigation to get in there. I had the luxury of just saying "enough for tonight" and switching off.

 

Point is, have all these 777 pilots experts that are negating the fire-on-board theory really looked into everything that could have gone wrong in that scenario, before simply dismissing it.

 

It is very easy to have missed that equip cooling button reset, and if one reads the QRH the section following the note above is actually a little confusing as it instructs "Do NOT accomplish EQUIP COOLING OVRD checklist", meaning that the amber warning to that effect should be acted on but one must not dive in to the checklist for that item. The pilot must act to reset the equip cooling button or else be is in very serious trouble 30 mins later.

The ascent to FL450 (so called) cannot really be trusted and people everywhere are putting much too much faith in a very vague report. A very distant radar 'on the horizon' picked up a return that 'might have been' MS 370. The angle of the return 'apparently' suggested the unidentified blip was at FL450. That's all there is to go on. Therefore as evidence it has to go right ot the back of the queue.

 

Next, the hijacking theory lacks credence because no-one has claimed responsability. Nor was there any electronic traffic before, during or after indicating planning, or celebration. And, as said before hijackers want the oxygen of publicity.

 

The suicide theory is also without credence. You, don't fly around for seven hours saying "Shall I, shan't I". If you did the cabin crew (who by the way have access to the cockpit) would want to know what's going on etc etc.

 

No, the only remaining credible theory is of an event or series of events that crippled the a/c in some way. Whether it was a depressurisation or electrical fault may never be discovered. But it would appear that the crew may have lost navigation. Which at night would make them totally disorientated. Try flying in a totally darkened cockpit (it has happened) at night perhaps with no visible stars or any indication of magnetic North. Doing everything by torchlight. No visible external horizon. If he was shooting for Langkawi and missed it because of cloud cover the pilot would very quickly become disorientated if by then navigation had also packed up.

 

Electrical faults on board a/c are more common than most people imagine especially radio failure. In this case a cascading electrical failure seems the most plausible scenario. This could also mean that the CVR and data recorder stopped functioning. In any case assuming their recovery it is unlikely that the events that initiated the incident would be present. So we may never know the truth.

At some point there was a judgement call made by the 18,000 hour pilot, which none of us here or any of the experts can make.  "Do i try to land on a 6800 foot runway with an aircraft that has unknown damage, or do I aim for a more distant runway that I'm familiar with and I'm sure I can land even with all systems failing?"  Potentially going off the end of a runway and destroying the plane and killing some or all of the passengers isn't a very good option, especially if you think the fire MAY be under control enough to allow flight to a "better" runway.

 

Edit:  Good post, vololiberista.  Add that the crew and passengers being incapacitated (so no communications, cell phone calls, etc) and we've got a pretty good idea of what likely happened.

 

Hook