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ohsirus

Contact with AirAsia flight QZ8501 bound for Singapore from Surabaya lost

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The wx in that radar screenie looked really rough.  Prayers for the families.

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When I hear about aircraft crashes (yes I know this still needs to be confirmed but I think we know where this is going), I have a tendency to convince myself that its isolated for reason x or y.  And while every accident is very rare statistically, this one raises more concern....after all we have all been on A320's at cruise so the possibility that something went wrong in this part of the flight is very scary.  Specific to this incident, I did do a double take when seeing that weather radar shot and was wondering at first if I was misreading the chart but now I have to wonder why any pilot would fly in those conditions.

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If another passenger asks me while I'm DHing in uniform... "so, what do YOU think happened to that missing airplane" I will slap them. 

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Here's the SIGWX charts of the area of interest.

 

Just the odd towering thunderstorm up to 50,000ft.

 

sigwx.jpg

 

"Kate" isn't just some guys wifes name either.

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Western Australian newspaper here in Perth this morning reporting that same aircraft had made 38 Perth-Bali flights this year, so maintenance would, presumably, not be an issue here.

 

Let's keep hopes up.

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Actually this is my own conspiracy theory.  B)

Edited by firehawk44
Removed quote.

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So no radar,radio, acars, mfr engine data or any of other numerous sources of information...no concrete proof of anything. So many sources of information about what happened but  nothing but talking heads from media...sounds familliar.

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So no radar,radio, acars, mfr engine data or any of other numerous sources of information...no concrete proof of anything. So many sources of information about what happened but nothing but talking heads from media...sounds familliar.

Points to a sudden catastrophic event. Once again I read of a press conference assembled soon. More rumors of wreckage found. Weather in the area has been savage, those familiar will know those CB fire up and can be extreme.

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Points to a sudden catastrophic event.

I don't believe in such events at FL320 unless it was sabotage/bomb which I don't consider likely here.

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At least the sea there is relatively shallow. So, it shouldn't take too long to find it.

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oil and debris found by plane.....

 

One thing I do know, is the A320 has a ceiling of FL390. 737NG can go up to FL410. At a decent weight, I have very little performance or margins left at FL390 even if the FMS says I can make FL400 or FL410. Thus, you are mad to try to out climb weather in such situations....  Go round or go down to increase maneuver margins. I do hope the FDR doesn't point to this outcome. All very sad and particularly for the region who have had a terrible year.

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oil and debris found by plane.....

 

One thing I do know, is the A320 has a ceiling of FL390. 737NG can go up to FL410. At a decent weight, I have very little performance or margins left at FL390 even if the FMS says I can make FL400 or FL410. Thus, you are mad to try to out climb weather in such situations....  Go round or go down to increase maneuver margins. I do hope the FDR doesn't point to this outcome. All very sad and particularly for the region who have had a terrible year.

 

Unfortunately it appears the oil and debris are unrelated. latest is that some smoke has been spotted in one of the islands in the search area.

 

As for the climb, there was a following company A320 much higher than the missing A320 and it was flying over the weather, so was the preceeding UAE flight, and the reports of embedded CB up to F350 would make sense. Other traffic is over the wx above F360, and his performance indicated he could climb, and that is what he tried. What we dont know if what his in-flight conditions were....was it turbulent? heavy rain? hail? all of the above?

 

This region was well and truly affected by the ITCZ at the time, and the turn to the left matches the last Doppler picture available on the internet. Alas, we will not know more until the data is recovered.

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Yes just saw that. Very sad but hopefully the beginning of some closure for the families. May they rest in peace.

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I know I'll be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but something should have been found from ML370 by now...  Bodies last 7-12 days on open sea bottom before they are broken down to the point of complete, well, destruction by sea life.  But something man-made should've been found by now.  Even the Air France aircraft that took two years to find left some debris. 

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I know I'll be branded as a conspiracy theorist, but something should have been found from ML370 by now...  Bodies last 7-12 days on open sea bottom before they are broken down to the point of complete, well, destruction by sea life.  But something man-made should've been found by now.  Even the Air France aircraft that took two years to find left some debris.

Everyone has a different view on MH370 and mine is the person wanted to create the biggest mystery in aviation since Amelia Earhart. Reality is it doesn't take too much to make a 777 disappear and the final move would be to soft land it in the water so it remains as much intact as possible and sinks in larger pieces...That 777 is extremely tough and has never been tested in a water landing however I bet it would hold up extremely well. My thoughts is like the Titanic it will eventually be found and that is when we will finally know.

 

Air France broke apart in flight and hit the ocean extremely hard, it seams this is also the case with QZ8501. If MH370 did hit soft that would be the difference right there.

 

But with MH370 we don't know....and that is exactly what someone wanted to happen.

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The other point to remember "conspiracy theorists" take note is that we don't know where MH370 came down, one. And, two it most proabably came down in the Indian Ocean which is considerably larger than a 777 and also very deep. So it's like looking for part of a needle in a haystack!

 

As for this recent tragedy they know where it came down and already some debris and bodies have been found. So no conspiracy there, sorry!

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Even the Air France aircraft that took two years to find left some debris.

Because they new the location and got to it quickly. This made all the difference. If you waited another month with that aircraft you wouldn't be able to find anything.

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Air France broke apart in flight

 

 

AF447 didn't break apart in flight. I hit the ocean whole and pretty much flat on its belly with a little nose up and a little banking.

 

Cheers,

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AF447 didn't break apart in flight. I hit the ocean whole and pretty much flat on its belly with a little nose up and a little banking.

 

Cheers,

 

Yes but the point was it came down hard without getting too literal. I don't have the visual of how it hit the water in my head for good reasons.

 

I've read reports that passengers from QZ8501 had been found with life jackets deployed and a raft was deployed so it seams like this one didn't hit that hard

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I've read reports that passengers from QZ8501 had been found with life jackets deployed

This all turned out to be lies (or miss-statements).

We heard quite a few of lies so far - they already recovered 40 bodies - lie.

With the help of sonar they pinpointed location of the fuselage - lie.

A recovered body had a life jacket on - lie.

 

I don't have the visual of how it hit the water i

Too bad, they were in a relatively stable and well defined attitude when they hit water, nothing terribly hard to visualize.

 

so it seams like this one didn't hit that hard

Faulty deduction based on faulty data.

At this point there is absolutely no verified info to support theory they hit water "softer" than AF447.

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This all turned out to be lies (or miss-statements).

 

Not surprised. New reports are way too unreliable and the investigation far too soon.

 

Too bad, they were in a relatively stable attitude when they hit water, nothing very hard to visualize.

 

For me their are three accidents that hit home, one being SwissAir flight 111, I was living in Nova Scotia at the time and when they brought that up off the ocean floor I could see the wreckage from my house. Other being MK Airlines Flight 1602 (my partners cousin was onboard that one and lost their life). Third one was a Cessna crashed when I was in flight school and lost a fellow instructor and student.....So therefore I don't read too much into details of a crash anymore but more interested in the cause. Seeing the wreckage from 111 was heartbreaking so I would never like to see or visualize something like that again.

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My guess is that the a/c suffered structural failure. Look back to BAW 911 in 1966 that crashed over Mt Fuji. Aircraft "are" designed to withstand heavy turbulence but only to a gust factor of 66feet per second. Beyond that things start to fail or break. There are many instances of a/c landing with bits missing due to turbulence. Fortunately in those cases they weren't critical bits.

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There are many instances of a/c landing with bits missing due to turbulence. Fortunately in those cases they weren't critical bits.

 

Pretty much my biggest fear when flying.  People are quick to stress that the wings are supposed to bend and are tested vigorously.  I always reply, it's not the wings i worry about, it's separation of the vertical stabilizer.

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