People may not be able to predict, but there is an old adage that says 'time will tell.'

 

The longer it takes for someone to achieve a position of responsibility, the better the odds that the person is suitable. These 90 day wonder zero to hero programs are disasters waiting to happen.

People may not be able to predict, but there is an old adage that says 'time will tell.'

 

If you are not able to predict, then you must accept the conclusion that risks and unpredictable actions and behaviours are part of your daily life. This is more or less as life works.

Yes, only time tells. This is the reason why we often know things only AFTER they happened and not before. Exactly my point.

 

 

The longer it takes for someone to achieve a position of responsibility, the better the odds that the person is suitable. These 90 day wonder zero to hero programs are disasters waiting to happen.

Except when the deliberate crash action came from fully qualified pilots with no record of depression or mental illness. Yes, there are such examples in the past, if you only bother to search.

To put in something FS-related into the discussion, I noticed that someone has uploaded a repaint of D-AIPX to the library, in remembrance of the crash. Does this seem a little morbid to anyone else? I mean, I can understand having a repaint whose real-world counterpart has crashed, and despite finding this out you keep flying it, but to consciously download a repaint because you know the aircraft crashed? I honestly wouldn't do it, but it would be nice to hear everyone else's opinions. I know that it's not a real plane, just pixels on a screen, but still...

The little C152, N49770, I had rented the day of my private pilot checkride was eventually destroyed in a pilot suicide onto Catalina Island. The good thing is that that school was just a regular school and not part of an ab initio program. A good thing that that pilot only had access to a C152 and not an Airbus at his young age. As we both agree, 'time will tell' what people are capable of. Wouldn't it be better that there is enough time built into the career system for the 'voices' to catch up to someone while they only have access to a small plane rather than a big one?

 

I'm fully aware of the pilot suicides and attempts that have happened. Egypt Air, Silk Air, the E190 in Africa, Fedex, and Skywest off the top of my head. We have had enough issues with time tested long standing professionals without having the added risk from kids untested by time at the controls of 150 seat jets.

In London in 1975, an underground  train failed to stop at the Moorgate terminus and crashed into the wall at the end of the tunnel. 43 people, including the .driver died as a result of the crash and a further 74 were injured.  No fault was found on the train or any systems.

Witnesses standing in the station reported that the was sitting upright in his seat and looking straight ahead as the train passed through the station. The state of the motor control gear after the accident indicated that power had been applied to the motors until within two seconds of the impact.

The driver no medical condtions and nt evidence of drink or drugs.  The driver did have any suicidal tendencies. and and had over about £1700 in todays money in his pocket  intending to use to purchase a car for his daughter after work.

the inquest result was  accidental death.

I'm fully aware of the pilot suicides and attempts that have happened. Egypt Air, Silk Air, the E190 in Africa, Fedex, and Skywest off the top of my head. We have had enough issues with time tested long standing professionals without having the added risk from kids untested by time at the controls of 150 seat jets.

 

The 'kid' was perfectly able to control an Airbus alone, at least for limited time, and had been already left alone in the cockpit several times, according to other pilots from the same airline who knew him much better than you and I. This accident was not the result of lack of experience or skill, it was (probably, not yet 100% confirmed) the result of a deliberate action. The point is if and how this could be predicted or prevented.

And finally, you can't reach 6000 flight hours if don't reach 600 before. Nobody becomes a fully qualified certified pilot without training as F/O before.

 

Sorry, but I really have hard time understanding your point, although I obviously respect it. Anyway, I think I made myself clear, no  more additions from my side. Thank your for attention.

Let's make one thing clear, these 'I thought he was perfectly capable of flying alone' comments are meaningless. Everyone is pefectly capable of flying alone. We all had to right from the very beginning stages, 'solo' an airplane. Everybody, even the check airman doing IOE with someone on his first actual flight in an airbus, will leave someone to fly alone because inevitably, nature will call on a several hour flight. There is nobody at the controls of a real airbus that hasn't already taken a checkride and been type rated (pic or sic) in that plane. So of course everyone is capable of being left alone to fly during potty time. All that those statements amount to is 'I didnt think he was crazy.'

 

Of course you have to get through 600 to get to 6000. My point is hour 600 is better spent in a cockpit without as many souls behind it. Since we can't predict if someone is going to go crazy, all we really have is time to make that sort. It is time that gives a person a chance to let their innate ham handed ineptitude, their careless regard for the rules, or their hidden bipolar depression to catch up and out them from aviation. The world would be a better place if Andreas' 625th flying hour was at the controls of a C152, wouldn't it?

The world would be a better place if Andreas' 625th flying hour was at the controls of a C152, wouldn't it?

 

The world would be a better place if every pilot involved in a fatal crash's last hour was at the controls of a C152 instead, I suspect they'd think so too, the trick is predicting when that last hour is.

 

Your assumption is that every person born has a little option in their head that says "Will deliberately fly a plane into the ground" and the only way to find out if it's set is to get them to fly as much as possible and wait and see if they do. Ergo, the longer they've been flying, the less likely this option is set and therefore the safer they should be in a bigger aircraft.

 

This is fairly obviously not true, mental illness (and more importantly, suicidal tendancies) can strike anyone at anytime, be it the bullied 12 year old at school to the crusty 65 year old Jumbo Captain dreading retirement. It is virtually impossible to quickly establish whether someone is going to do something like this and time spent at the controls of an airliner is no better at predicting it than their age, race, religion, sexuality or whether or not they like Aerosmith. We currently rely on pilots to report when they're not feeling up to it but in this increasingly commercial world it's becoming harder and harder to do so.

 

All the best,

 

Ian

 

I wonder if one thing they could do, though it would be expensive so it probably wouldn't even be considered. Most Boeing's and Airbus' has the front lavatory just past the cockpit doors. Could they put another door on the bulkhead just past the lav, (Which is normally before where the passengers sit) that could be locked in the same way the cockpit door is, when a pilot wants to go to the bathroom. Only when this door is locked, the cockpit door can't be put in the locked position (Just Norm and Unlocked.) This would ensure outside security s maintained and preventing a pilot from being locked out of the cockpit, by entering the entry code.

I wonder if one thing they could do, though it would be expensive so it probably wouldn't even be considered. Most Boeing's and Airbus' has the front lavatory just past the cockpit doors. Could they put another door on the bulkhead just past the lav, (Which is normally before where the passengers sit) that could be locked in the same way the cockpit door is, when a pilot wants to go to the bathroom. Only when this door is locked, the cockpit door can't be put in the locked position (Just Norm and Unlocked.) This would ensure outside security s maintained and preventing a pilot from being locked out of the cockpit, by entering the entry code.

That is actually a pretty good idea and probably feasible.

The world would be a better place if every pilot involved in a fatal crash's last hour was at the controls of a C152 instead, I suspect they'd think so too, the trick is predicting when that last hour is.

 

Your assumption is that every person born has a little option in their head that says "Will deliberately fly a plane into the ground" and the only way to find out if it's set is to get them to fly as much as possible and wait and see if they do. Ergo, the longer they've been flying, the less likely this option is set and therefore the safer they should be in a bigger aircraft.

 

This is fairly obviously not true, mental illness (and more importantly, suicidal tendancies) can strike anyone at anytime, be it the bullied 12 year old at school to the crusty 65 year old Jumbo Captain dreading retirement. It is virtually impossible to quickly establish whether someone is going to do something like this and time spent at the controls of an airliner is no better at predicting it than their age, race, religion, sexuality or whether or not they like Aerosmith. We currently rely on pilots to report when they're not feeling up to it but in this increasingly commercial world it's becoming harder and harder to do so.

 

All the best,

 

Ian

 

And it appears your assumption is that mental illness just strikes anybody on a random basis. It is not. It arises as a combination of genetic and environmental factors. So yes, everybody may very well have a switch and whether or not it gets thrown may depend on your parents and your environment. Short of genetically testing everybody and then restricting those that show a certain marker from going near an airplane, time is the only other way for people with an inherent vulnerability to let that issue manifest.

 

(and if we are to believe the stories that the pilot was locked out of the cockpit)

Believe it! That much is fact. And that the remaining pilot set the a/c into a descent.

 

Another point crew toilets as an integral part of the flightdeck are nothing new. Even the VC10 has them!

And it appears your assumption is that mental illness just strikes anybody on a random basis. It is not.

 

No, it's an illness that strikes as a result of genetic and (mainly) environmental factors as you describe... (http://www.healthline.com/health/depression/genetic).

 

We cannot control most of the environmental factors... ergo it appears to happen at random to anybody.

 

Waiting to see if it happens while slowly moving on to bigger and bigger aircraft is absurd and time spent at the controls of an airliner can no more predict the chance of a breakdown than measuring pilot's shoe sizes. The 20 year old who's just passed his route check is no more or less likely to do something like this than a 55 year old Captain. Statistically it could appear that way but in reality it's not, it's much more complex than that.

However, a 55 year old will probably have experienced more of these random 'environmental factors' in life than a 20 year old. And if that 55 year old can still present himself to you still alive, without a police record and with a clean flying record after 'environmental factors' then it is probably a safe bet that he won't do anything too crazy. A typical 20 year old just hasn't had the time to tease out anything and find out what they are capable of. Putting so many lives immediately in the hands of a youngster of unknown quantity is what is absurd.

Putting so many lives immediately in the hands of a youngster of unknown quantity is what is absurd.

 

 

The 55 year old has proved that he can handle 55 years worth of environmental factors, doesn't mean he hasn't just encountered the one that will push him over the edge.

 

The 20 year old hasn't (and could never) prove that, doesn't mean he's about to go postal.

 

The 20 year old isn't an "unknown quantity", he's someone who has had the drive and determination to get to and through flight school (which probably involved a fair bit of frustration, failure and stress), passed all the exams (which will be another load of frustration, failure and stress) and then managed to convince an airline to hire him (more frustration and stress). Then he would have had to do a make or break type rating (more frustration and stress) and then his line training (you get the drift).

 

Just because 100% of young FOs on that flight had mental problems and did something crazy, doesn't mean all young FOs can't be trusted. And the solution is not to have them fly smaller aircraft to see if they crash them (there may be less people on them but they still don't deserve to die).

That 64 year old can certainly find that Garfield doll stuck to a car window that pushes him over the edge on the day before he retires, I agree. But assuming we are talking about living in free society where you will not be restricted from pursuing your aspirations by genetic or other factors outside your control, organizations will still need to have a way to sort the appropriate from the inappropriate and the good risk from the bad risk. In most cases, experience is still the fairest, nondiscriminatory way to sort out who to hire or not. Odds are, a past history of not doing something dumb is an indication of a future not doing something dumb. And that's all anybody can really go on, the odds.

 

Actually, with the ab initio programs, you are essentally hired by the airline before you begin any flight training. If you successfully complete the training, then you have a place in their cockpit upon graduation. And to boot, the flight training will probably be paid for by the airline. All the airline knows of the student is what a couple of days of applicant testing and 200-300 hours of flight training tells them. Not much.

 

Militaries train pilots under ab initio as well. But there, the student becomes a military officer first and a pilot second. The recruit is broken down as an individual and rebuilt from a baby back up into the kind of individual the organization wants him to be. I don't believe the Lufthansa Flight Academy forced him to boot camp and to send all the clothes he came with back to mother.

 

And I've known a few people at my previous airline that were instructors at some of these ab initio schools. There is as much pressure there for the instructors to pass the students as there are for the students to pass.

 

Yes, nobody deserves to die. But imagine if Marvin Renslow spun a 777 into the ground instead of a Dash 8. At least there are 230 families that did not have to suffer that night.