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rsrandazzo

[20JUL17] Update thread for XPL users

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7 hours ago, rsrandazzo said:

Marco,

I am curious as to where you are obtaining your market data?  Is it an official source or is it just an opinion repeated from others?

Facts are difficult things and I have data. 

 

Hi Robert,

I haven't actually mentioned market data in my post. I was pointing out that, compared to e.g. a year ago, there are significant hints that the market share of X-Plane has risen after the release of v11: the number of uploaded youtube videos, the hits on Google search, the number of posts and users on multiple specific forums, etc. They all go in the same direction, so the hint is statistically significant.

I never said that X-Plane market share equalled that of FSX or P3D, only that after the release of v11 it has been increasing.

In addition to that, there could be a couple of other points to consider with regard to airliner addons, e.g. the fact that the percentage of P3D users doing airline ops is possibly greater compared to XP (which is, for the moment, comparatively more apt to GA than to heavies), or the fact that on average XP users possibly tend to spend a bit less on pricey addons because of the great freeware ecosystem they've been historically used to.

Just personal musings, but based on some reasoning and hints behind. :-)


"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." [Abraham Lincoln]

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1 hour ago, scandinavian13 said:

Where are people getting their staggering stats? I'm genuinely curious. I hear people say all these things, but it seems more that they're just saying what someone else said instead of speaking to a particular fact-based metric.

This is a part of the phenomenon that economists are well aware of and is the reason the marketing books talk about branding.  When someone buys a Ford suddenly all Chevys are cheap and not worth the cost, and the Chevy buyers think Fords are pieces of trash and unreliable. Human nature. We will usually support a purchase we made regardless of data.


Dan Downs KCRP

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1 hour ago, Murmur said:

I haven't actually mentioned market data in my post. I was pointing out that, compared to e.g. a year ago, there are significant hints that the market share of X-Plane has risen after the release of v11: the number of uploaded youtube videos, the hits on Google search, the number of posts and users on multiple specific forums, etc. They all go in the same direction, so the hint is statistically significant.

As someone who's studied a bit of economics, let me disagree here. While the hints may be theoretically significant, they are not statistically so. Your assertion is not backed by fact in any case:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=X-Plane,P3D,FSX (note that Google auto-tracks related items, which you can see below, and this includes YouTube searches, as it's all tied together).

...and this goes back to my earlier point, and Dan's follow up that a lot of this is simply regurgitated without being checked. FSX, while it's clearly decreasing, is still magnitudes above the others. That's the crux of my issue, personally. I hear a lot of people say things, but either make a blind assertion and assume the stats are there to back it up, or just don't cite a (credible) source at all.

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Kyle Rodgers

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Interesting that P3D is not that far from X-Plane. Would have thought, that P3D was significantly larger customer base... 

Oh well - you learn something new every day... Thanks for the statistics, Kyle.


Best regards,
--Anders Bermann--
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Pilot-ID: SAS2471

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44 minutes ago, scandinavian13 said:

Your assertion is not backed by fact in any case:
https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q=X-Plane,P3D,FSX (note that Google auto-tracks related items, which you can see below, and this includes YouTube searches, as it's all tied together).

Here's a better one: https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?q="X-Plane" %2B "xplane" %2B "x plane","P3D" %2B "prepar3d" %2B "prepar 3d","fsx" %2B "flight simulator x" %2B "microsoft flight simulator"

You can see the two spikes corresponding to the X-Plane 11 Beta release, and to the X-Plane 11 Steam release. Those two are absent in your link, so probably my link is more significant.

Note that I'm not inferring at all that the Google trends results correspond to the relative actual market share of the three products. I'm only inferring that they indicate a trend.

Regarding Youtube: in one year, uploaded XP videos in a month have gone from 3730 to 6720. Again, not inferring the relative market share compared to P3D, but only that the trend is of increasing X-Plane users following the release of v11.

1mpDpDO.jpg

 

44 minutes ago, scandinavian13 said:

...and this goes back to my earlier point, and Dan's follow up that a lot of this is simply regurgitated without being checked. FSX, while it's clearly decreasing, is still magnitudes above the others. That's the crux of my issue, personally. I hear a lot of people say things, but either make a blind assertion and assume the stats are there to back it up, or just don't cite a (credible) source at all.

Infact, if your read my post carefully, I never implied that XP market share is comparable to FSX, only that after the release of v11, there seems to be a steady rise in its users, and possibly market share. How much time, if ever, will it become comparable to FSX/P3D, is another matter.

Another interesting thing on which to ponder is that, as far as I know, your only product for XP (on which you can hence do comparisons) is the DC6 for XP10.

Now, it's interesting to compare the relative impact on Google Trends of the release of your B747, with the release of your DC6 last Thursday:

9vVDjpX.jpg

Marco Ottaviano

 

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"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." [Abraham Lincoln]

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4 minutes ago, Murmur said:

You can see the two spikes corresponding to the X-Plane 11 Beta release, and to the X-Plane 11 Steam release. Those two are absent in your link, so probably my link is more significant.

They're there. They're just being suppressed because of the graph scale. Since you're specifying terms, you're narrowing the scope and suppressing overall results. If you look at the link I provided, you'll see that the related terms you're providing are already being provided. Looking at the other lines, you can see the peaks are in just about the same spot. Any variation, or spiking can be attributed to the change to more specific terms. Note that, given that it's a comparative metric, the scale is 100-weighted, so it will naturally skew the returned data.

8 minutes ago, Murmur said:

Infact, if your read my post carefully, I never implied that XP market share is comparable to FSX, only that after the release of v11, there seems to be a steady rise in its users, and possibly market share. How much time, if ever, will it become comparable to FSX/P3D, is another matter.

Good point. All the same, the overall discussion was the assertion that it is this huge market that is being ignored. Many claims are being made that it is larger than FSX/P3D, and simply being parroted. Thus my response, and the angle in said response.

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Kyle Rodgers

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17 minutes ago, Murmur said:

Oops edit this bit out, casual whistle, nobody saw anything;

I don't get what you're trying to prove here? Are you trying to prove that PMDG are wrong and you are right? Did you stop to consider that they have access to market data that you don't? The arrogance and attitude of always being right aren't going to get very far in this neck of the woods (and certainly won't make PMDG develop anything for X-plane).

In all seriousness, the whole X-Plane vs FSX/P3D argument is old, childish and wearing very thin. Not directing at you specifically, but it seems to me these arguments start with some false claims to do with popularity etc. with only circumstantial evidence to back it. Not to mention the location in which it's done. Arguing over this (with a developer of all people...I mean come on) in PMDGs forums (one of the big names in P3D/FSX) is like walking into the middle of Stuttgart and arguing that BMW is better than Porsche*.

Since you seem to like trends, there's been a recent trend in the PMDG forums lately where X-plane users have been acting with complete disrespect towards FSX/P3D users, and PMDG.

Let's buck that trend yeah?

 

*Side note: Stuttgart is home of Porsche, Munich is home of BMW.

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Cheers,
Chris Brand
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Just now, PMDG777 said:

Anonymous (your full name is required in all posts in the PMDG forums);

He signed - just manually, above the grey line. Careful :wink:


Kyle Rodgers

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Just now, scandinavian13 said:

He signed - just manually, above the grey line. Careful :wink:

I'll go get my eyes checked :cool: Apologies


Cheers,
Chris Brand
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14 minutes ago, PMDG777 said:

I don't get what you're trying to prove here? Are you trying to prove that PMDG are wrong and you are right? Did you stop to consider that they have access to market data that you don't? The arrogance and attitude of always being right aren't going to get very far in this neck of the woods (and certainly won't make PMDG develop anything for X-plane).

Please re-read my posts more carefully. It was just a discussion about the rising popularity of XP11, and I never said anyone at PMDG were wrong. What arrogance and attitude you're talking about? I just presented my views and my reasoning in a civil manner.

14 minutes ago, PMDG777 said:

Arguing over this (with a developer of all people...I mean come on) in PMDGs forums (one of the big names in P3D/FSX) is like walking into the middle of Stuttgart and arguing that BMW is better than Porsche*.

They developed for X-Plane as well. Moreover, in my posts here, I never argued that X-Plane is better than FSX or P3D. Just participated in a discussion about XP market share.

14 minutes ago, PMDG777 said:

Since you seem to like trends, there's been a recent trend in the PMDG forums lately where X-plane users have been acting with complete disrespect towards FSX/P3D users, and PMDG.

I do not condone that, and I'm not responsible for the behaviour of others. In my opinion, they actually do damage to the XP community.

In any case, I presented my point of view here and for me the discussion is over. I do not want to take further space and time from more useful discussions for PMDG users. :-)

 

Marco Ottaviano

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"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is hard to verify their authenticity." [Abraham Lincoln]

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Gents,

Interesting discussion.  (Isn't it refreshing to see a difference of opinion not devolve into name calling?  And since we actually have names in our posts...  :biggrin:)

Google search engine trend data tells only a piece of the story- and that is an important point.  It is NOT the sort of thing you use to make decisions without actual, hard data to back up the trend lines.  We have actual data that we are evaluating, and that is what we will rely upon primarily.  I see a few folks stating with certainty that this-or-that is happening, but they are really just voicing an opinion or a hope without actual data to support the supposition. 

There is a theory in social psychology that if you see a statement repeated by three different sources, you will believe it to be fact.  This is quite evident in the simming community because so many of us monitor so many different sites- and attribution is almost non-existent.  So having folks post on various sites "people are doing X!" makes it seem like it is actually happening, even though the data may not support the statement.

Ultimately, the sole determinant for what we will do-or-not-do comes down to earning potential.  If every person on the planet googles a platform, then the platform will seem active.  If the google activity isn't followed up with actual adoption of the platform, or if the users of the platform aren't interested in the kinds of products that PMDG produces- it doesn't matter how large or small the market is.

We are a business...  We make market penetration decisions based on data, not opinions about market activity...

 

 

  • Upvote 2

Robert S. Randazzo coolcap.gif

PLEASE NOTE THAT PMDG HAS DEPARTED AVSIM

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1 hour ago, rsrandazzo said:

Google search engine trend data tells only a piece of the story-

 

 

Exactly, sometimes, if I'm looking for a Prepar3d version of an addon scenery, I'll actually type FSX KIAD rather than Prepar3D and KIAD as FSX is easier to type. Ps. I'm also an X-Plane 10/11 user but don't make so much noise about it :)
 


Jude Bradley
Beech Baron: Uh, Tower, verify you want me to taxi in front of the 747?
ATC: Yeah, it's OK. He's not hungry.

X-Plane 11 and P3D v5 hotfix 2 and MSFS2020  🙂

System specs: Windows 10  Pro 64-bit, i9-9900KF  Gigabyte Z390 RTX-2070, 32GB RAM  1X 1TB M2 for X-Plane 11, 1x 500GB SSD for P3Dv5, 1x256GB SSD for OS. Alpha-tester for FS2020

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1 hour ago, Jude Bradley said:

Exactly, sometimes, if I'm looking for a Prepar3d version of an addon scenery, I'll actually type FSX KIAD rather than Prepar3D and KIAD as FSX is easier to type. Ps. I'm also an X-Plane 10/11 user but don't make so much noise about it :)
 

I was just going to relate the same experience.  Earlier today in P3Dv4 in response to a Ctrl+J to summons the jetway I get the 'unable to use jetway if not at a parking location" message that has been in the flightsim program since whenever... and I used a FSX "tag" in google instead of P3D to increase the number of hits.  Never did figure it out, simply used the go to airport and reset the parking, which didn't move the airplane because it was already marshalled to the exact same spot... and jetway moves. Anywho... I used FSX to look for a P3D problem... do it most times I google an issue.  Even AVSIM library used to combine all P3D and FSX stuff in FSX sections.  So I think the google stats for P3D slightly underscore the proportion of P3D based searches.


Dan Downs KCRP

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We can discuss statistics and graphs all we want. But one thing is for sure. Everyone looking at X-plane 11 wishes they could have a PMDG airliner add-on with it and I can guarantee that when (or if) this happens that statistics will change...

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Sebastian Björk - Stockholm, Sweden

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2 hours ago, Sebjo89 said:

We can discuss statistics and graphs all we want. But one thing is for sure. Everyone looking at X-plane 11 wishes they could have a PMDG airliner add-on with it and I can guarantee that when (or if) this happens that statistics will change...

I personally agree with this statement. X- plane would be my sim of choice if PMDG was making planes for it. I would like to see ASN, FT, to name a few making products for a plane. A lot of P3D users would switch to X-plane like myself. Don't like the environment , lighting, etc in P3D. X-plane is better. I'm just going by the videos online. Looks more realistic.

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George Lee

Asus Maximus Hero IX Motherboard, Intel i7 6700K CPU, Geforce GTX 1080, Corsair 16Gb memory, Corsair case, Corsair PSU
 

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