[13JUN18] XPlane User Updates

[Ephedrin 418]

25 minutes ago, AstorGrand said:

we will not do anything for X-Plane

I think it‘s always good for the reader to add  „at its current state“

it‘s just natural that minds change when things and circumstances change.

[HH 0]

I've been away from simming and the community for some time, so I'm just reading up a bit. I love this piece, for me, news. One of the things I love about X-Plane is the sloped runways that we don't get in Prepar3d. I tend to fly props and turbo props in X-Plane and my beloved Boeings in Prepar3d (738 and 772). I do love to fly my also beloved and nostalgic B752 and B763 in X-plane as the flight model in X-Plane, in my opinion, is second to none; and I am aware that PMDG aircraft is a different beast in this regard altogether and handles this outside the sim.

I love what you do and have loved it for so many years now. Keep up the great work 😊

[GCBraun 2,390]

Wonder if we will get any updates before year’s end about XP planes, especially the port of the DC-6 to XP11. With all the momentum that seems to be goin on with the platform (Orbx, ActiveSky, among others), it seems it would be a good moment to get some official support from PMDG. 

Really missing the old bird. Would love to be able to fully use it in XP11. Hopefully that is still the plan (and with VR integration)! 🙂

[jrgaz 34]

In my wildest dreams I imagine a new post by Mr. Randazzo stating that they are working hard to port the 747 and 777 to X Plane 11...

[alexcolka 183]

Let's hope at least after XP 11.30 goes final that some news about future XP developments could be made by the team, I know nothing is certain but we just can hope for some news (as a xmas present?) 

[rsrandazzo 6,353]

Gents,

No news at all coming.  We are a bit over-tasked as it is.

Before anyone goes into tantrum mode- the astute observer should notice we aren't publishing news on any new product lines right now.  So- please no crying...  We are keeping things to ourselves at the moment.

 

Edited December 20, 2018 by rsrandazzo

[Keith_S 5]

16 hours ago, rsrandazzo said:

Gents,

No news at all coming.  We are a bit over-tasked as it is.

Before anyone goes into tantrum mode- the astute observer should notice we aren't publishing news on any new product lines right now.  So- please no crying...  We are keeping things to ourselves at the moment.

 

That's a real shame.

Especially in light of the new Navigraph survey showing X-Plane market share is now significantly bigger than FSX, equal with P3D and likely to overtake P3D by next year.

The main reason preventing many people from moving from the ESP platform to XP is the lack of study level liners, so if PMDG got on board with XP the sky really would be the limit.

[scandinavian13 5,192]

8 minutes ago, Keith_S said:

That's a real shame.

Especially in light of the new Navigraph survey showing X-Plane market share is now significantly bigger than FSX, equal with P3D and likely to overtake P3D by next year.

The main reason preventing many people from moving from the ESP platform to XP is the lack of study level liners, so if PMDG got on board with XP the sky really would be the limit.

The survey was an interesting read.

All the same, for any statistics to be relevant, the data needs to have some sort of correlation to the overall group.

If one were to poll to see how many people liked Starbucks in a particular area, it would be better to poll a group of people that represents the larger demographics of the area, and determine tendencies within it. Polling people who pass through coffee shops, however, would lead to a bunch of selection bias.

The AVSIM studies from the past have always been interesting reads, but again, there's a selection bias in that it's largely only the group who uses(/used) AVSIM, ignoring all of the other groups, which may have different tendencies.

Further reading: Self-Selection Bias, and in the case of someone who would want to advocate for their sim of choice (as, based on your post, I'm guessing you're an XPL user), confirmation bias.

[DhruvK 2]

51 minutes ago, Keith_S said:

That's a real shame.

Especially in light of the new Navigraph survey showing X-Plane market share is now significantly bigger than FSX, equal with P3D and likely to overtake P3D by next year.

The main reason preventing many people from moving from the ESP platform to XP is the lack of study level liners, so if PMDG got on board with XP the sky really would be the limit.

I’m sure Kyle will be along shortly to point out that the Navigraph survey isn’t a substitute for hard market research that I’m sure PMDG has already comprehensively performed 😎. EDIT: His ears were clearly burning.

That being said, it’s hard to argue with trends. I sincerely hope that PMDG is paying attention to the way market forces are moving. There’s a certain amount of self-fulfillling prophecy at play here, but I don’t think anyone can argue that a PMDG airliner (modern Boeing, not the DC6) would lend a yet-unseen level of credibility to the X-Plane platform. We can only hope that the wheels are already turning on bringing such a thing to fruition.

Edited December 20, 2018 by DhruvK
Kyle proved me right.

[Keith_S 5]

5 minutes ago, scandinavian13 said:

The survey was an interesting read.

All the same, for any statistics to be relevant, the data needs to have some sort of correlation to the overall group.

If one were to poll to see how many people liked Starbucks in a particular area, it would be better to poll a group of people that represents the larger demographics of the area, and determine tendencies within it. Polling people who pass through coffee shops, however, would lead to a bunch of selection bias.

The AVSIM studies from the past have always been interesting reads, but again, there's a selection bias in that it's largely only the group who uses(/used) AVSIM, ignoring all of the other groups, which may have different tendencies.

Further reading: Self-Selection Bias, and in the case of someone who would want to advocate for their sim of choice (as, based on your post, I'm guessing you're an XPL user), confirmation bias.

Well, I was a P3D user until v3.4, after which I upgraded to X-Plane 11 and haven't looked back since.

[Ephedrin 418]

On 12/21/2018 at 12:28 AM, DhruvK said:

I’m sure Kyle will be along shortly to point out that the Navigraph survey isn’t a substitute for hard market research that I’m sure PMDG has already comprehensively performed 😎. EDIT: His ears were clearly burning.

That being said, it’s hard to argue with trends. I sincerely hope that PMDG is paying attention to the way market forces are moving. There’s a certain amount of self-fulfillling prophecy at play here, but I don’t think anyone can argue that a PMDG airliner (modern Boeing, not the DC6) would lend a yet-unseen level of credibility to the X-Plane platform. We can only hope that the wheels are already turning on bringing such a thing to fruition.

The problem I personally had with this survey was the way it was published... I haven't received any notification via email by any developer I have signed up for email updates. I only saw it on facebook via the FsElite channel and from Navigraph themselves, however I see no reason to follow them on FB. Of course there might have been other mediums but that's not that important to me. I am a FB user and I only got it there and only from FSElite. So if I was a casual P3D user without having subscribed to any FS channels because I like to use good addons but not to participate to the FS community... How could I have known about this survey? It was addressed at those who actively use the internet to look for news about flight simulation. Most XP users are eager to get quality addons into their sim, for understandable reasons, P3D/FSX users already have everything.. so why care about it? There are 100s of thousands of desktop pilots out there, if not millions. And a few thousands have answered.. that's not really much, that's those who are really eager. To me this survey is a nice view about something most people already know from reading forums. If there would have been 30000 people saying "we want a new MD-11", well this would have been a clear statement 😄

But what bothers me most is that there has no real HQ aircraft developer been involved in this survey.. Scott Gentile from A2A for example wrote he was asked but he preferes to stay quiet and watch the whole thing. And I think that's mostly enough and there is no reason to hyperventilate now. And concerning PMDG: They already said that they will develop for XP.

[kevin7898 3]

On 12/22/2018 at 3:26 PM, Ephedrin said:

The problem I personally had with this survey was the way it was published... I haven't received any notification via email by any developer I have signed up for email updates. I only saw it on facebook via the FsElite channel and from Navigraph themselves, however I see no reason to follow them on FB. Of course there might have been other mediums but that's not that important to me. I am a FB user and I only got it there and only from FSElite. So if I was a casual P3D user without having subscribed to any FS channels because I like to use good addons but not to participate to the FS community... How could I have known about this survey? It was addressed at those who actively use the internet to look for news about flight simulation. Most XP users are eager to get quality addons into their sim, for understandable reasons, P3D/FSX users already have everything.. so why care about it? There are 100s of thousands of desktop pilots out there, if not millions. And a few thousands have answered.. that's not really much, that's those who are really eager. To me this survey is a nice view about something most people already know from reading forums. If there would have been 30000 people saying "we want a new MD-11", well this would have been a clear statement 😄

But what bothers me most is that there has no real HQ aircraft developer been involved in this survey.. Scott Gentile from A2A for example wrote he was asked but he preferes to stay quiet and watch the whole thing. And I think that's mostly enough and there is no reason to hyperventilate now. And concerning PMDG: They already said that they will develop for XP.

I am 98% sure navi graph didn't do a survey persay, but pulled their data from their own servers on who is buying and using their products and services. 

 

Kevin Stuparyk

[yidahoo 365]

4 hours ago, kevin7898 said:

I am 98% sure navi graph didn't do a survey persay, but pulled their data from their own servers on who is buying and using their products and services. 

 

Kevin Stuparyk

So I guess that makes the 20 minutes I spent filling their survey a figment of my imagination. 

[Keith_S 5]

On 12/20/2018 at 11:26 PM, scandinavian13 said:

The survey was an interesting read.

All the same, for any statistics to be relevant, the data needs to have some sort of correlation to the overall group.

If one were to poll to see how many people liked Starbucks in a particular area, it would be better to poll a group of people that represents the larger demographics of the area, and determine tendencies within it. Polling people who pass through coffee shops, however, would lead to a bunch of selection bias.

The AVSIM studies from the past have always been interesting reads, but again, there's a selection bias in that it's largely only the group who uses(/used) AVSIM, ignoring all of the other groups, which may have different tendencies.

Further reading: Self-Selection Bias, and in the case of someone who would want to advocate for their sim of choice (as, based on your post, I'm guessing you're an XPL user), confirmation bias.

As far as I can tell Navigraph is fairly neutral with regard to the survey base. I would certainly be interested to hear if you have any results that are more recent than this to contradict the Navigraph survey, or perhaps your post itself is indicative of your own bias?

Please feel free to enlighten me, I am genuinely interested to know the true situation (based on fact) regardless of preference.

[scandinavian13 5,192]

34 minutes ago, Keith_S said:

As far as I can tell Navigraph is fairly neutral with regard to the survey base. I would certainly be interested to hear if you have any results that are more recent than this to contradict the Navigraph survey, or perhaps your post itself is indicative of your own bias?

I was trying to avoid getting into the depths of stat and study design, but since you asked (and vaguely accused), I will elucidate.

While it is true that Navigraph would likely be fairly neutral as far as an entity goes, that doesn't necessarily mean that a self-selected group would be. Self-selection bias is an actual statistical worry, when it comes to surveys, because - unless you're studying the idea of who might choose take a particular survey - you want a statistical sample of those relevant to your specific to your question. In other words, when it comes to trying to find the relative size of a particular group, you will want to find a cohort that matches the overall audience, not necessarily who simply volunteers to take a survey. Say, for example, you were polling "in the open" similar to this email blast survey on some random busy street corner in Washington DC, to see what someone's favorite local food place is to see which brand you want to get involved with (we'll say, perhaps, sell a revolutionary kitchen technology to or something). In theory this might look like it's neutral - particularly if you had no clear allegiance, and your random street corner were equidistant from the various options on the form. This would be seemingly fine...but it's not quite so.

First, you're getting the selection bias issue. Are the people taking the survey necessarily representative of the larger audience? This is DC, remember, and if you're trying to get involved with places in the DC area, then taking answers from non-locals would bias your results in a negative way. You want the opinions of people who would drive sales in the location you want to invest/pitch. You don't necessarily want the opinion of the couple from Minot, ND, who will likely never come back here to frequent the place you'd be selling to. Additionally, if your corner is in the business district, then you're getting a lot of commuters, and not necessarily residents. These people might sway towards lunch spots, instead of dinner spots (this could be a plus or a minus, depending on what you're looking to sell). If it's in an area where people all know the owner of one of the restaurants, then it will skew that way. If one of the early participants was on the way to the shop and mentioned it to the patrons when they got there, then there could be a bunch of people who will "drop by" to skew the results in that way.

To illustrate this concept, have you ever taken an online survey that asks you a bunch of demographic questions in advance? How old, where do you live, what's your income, and so on? Ever get rejected from one of those? Depending on your cohort, it might be rare, or it might be common, but those questions are there to narrow the scope to the demographic they are seeking. They're trying to match up their assumed market with the data set they're building/collecting. Does this theoretically skew the dataset? Yeah, but in the end, if you're selling Ferraris or Bugattis, is the opinion of someone who would never be in the market for either particularly relevant? In the same way, do you really want the opinion of someone who only buys bespoke clothing to influence your line of clothing you're selling at a store commonly found in a run-of-the-mill mall? If you're making workout clothing, do you really want the opinions of people who never, or rarely work out? As a final, but slightly interesting issue: if you're making a plane, whose opinions do you really want? In this case, I would argue that you'd want the opinions of potential passengers (how do you select for this?), pilots, cabin crew, and - often forgotten - the ramp crews...but again: how do you isolate these groups, and still have a relevant survey? Study design.

Statistics and study design go hand-in-hand, and some study designs are much better than others. Is Navigraph's wrong? No, absolutely not. In fact, it's probably better from them than many other outlets. A Twitch streamer who flies mainly in XPL would have data that skews towards XPL, whereas a streamer who flies in FSX/P3D would have a skew in that direction. Developers usually have a core sim that they develop to, so their datasets would skew in the direction of those core sims. All the same, even if it is the most unbiased does it truly reflect the larger audience of the sim crowd?

To be honest, a lot of people in forums assume that they are part of a huge cohort of the overall sim market. Don't get me wrong, the size of this cohort is growing, as the younger, more computer-savvy audience grows into the community, but a very significant portion of our market has never touched this forum. Similarly, I'd argue that a number of Navigraph's audience simply deleted the email because it didn't say "CYCLE XX/XX NOW AVAILABLE." XPL, as a community, is very community driven, so it doesn't surprise me that they would be more inclined to participate in a survey. Going back to the self-selection issue, what if a few of the XPL forums and/or news sites posted a link/announcement about it, while FS-sites didn't. That would skew the data, too. Is this necessarily the cause? I can't say. I didn't design the study, and I don't have their unfiltered dataset.

One must always look at the study design, and that study's match to the overall audience, in order to determine its relevance to them. Again, keep in mind that this doesn't mean that the statistics are not relevant, or are wholly false - it just means that not all studies are relevant to the needs of all audiences. Some stats are simply interesting to look at, while others are targeted to a specific actionable purpose.