Don't copy, beat them

[hasse29 41]

I tried something different recently, and I have learned a lot from it. Two days ago I preformed DLH418 flight EDDF-KIAD. I used max load in my 748 and put in fuel so I would have 12 000 kg when I land in Dulles. Looking at live weather in active sky, I choose a western route into northern France. Near Reims, I turned nort-northwest towards England, passing Folkestone near Dover. I went little more north and turned west, passing south of London and just outside northern Bristol, and from there towards Shannon.

I couldn't find the gate that Flightradar24 said was the correct one, so I chose a different gate. I waited for the real airplane to show up. I don't know what payload they had or their fuel planning. I used the same runway as they did. I took of about three minutes ahead of the real airplane according to Flightradar24. The real airplane choose a different route. It went north-northwest towards Cologne and Amsterdam, passed little north of London. They went to same flight level as me.

My route was actually better than theirs. I measured it in GS. My GS was around 455-460, while theirs was around 430. When I turned north in France, my groundspeed decreased to about 435-440. At the same time, they started heading west and increased GS to 445-450. Over England, when I turned west again, my GS increased to 460 again.

Using Shannon as a checkpoint, I arrived 7 minutes before the real airplane. After that it went more bad. I choose a more southern NAT than they did. Arriving Canada, I was just 4 minutes ahead of them. GS was almost the same in both aircrafts, with their aircraft slightly faster at some parts of the route. In US, we had the same route and same GS, and I landed 5 minutes before him according to Flightradar24.

It was very interesting to se what effect different routes can have. I realize that there are some details that might vary in the simulator from "irl", but still fun. I can recommend this instead of just copying a route from a website. You learn a lot from it.

[Himbi 1]

In fact this is nothing new... I always look at a website which shows me actual and forecasted winds and decide then myself...

Sometimes you hit Iceland and Greenland on your way from Europe to JFK for example... and sometimes you pass the Bretagne and pass New Foundland in the south...

[pracines 823]

How did you know the real world DLH418 cost index being used that day?

[hasse29 41]

38 minutes ago, pracines said:

How did you know the real world DLH418 cost index being used that day?

I don't. I used CI from link below. But since distance and GS was the same when the route was the same, it can't have differed much. Difference was when we choose different path.

https://www.scribd.com/document/374519450/Cost-Index-Database-2017

[Budbud 227]

One big factor is the winds aloft.

I use ASP4 and though it is as realistic as possible, there still remains some discrepancies.

When comparing already the winds in PFPX between the one forecasted by ASP4 and the one from the web, sometimes the route that seems the most interesting with the ASP4 winds doesn't like right with the online forecasted winds.

So whether I choose the same route than the real flights, or a different one, I may be a little faster or slower than the real flight just because the winds with ASP4 may be a bit different than the real winds experienced by the real flight.

 

[OAL809 14]

Nice try to "beat" the real flight but you have to take into consideration the following :

-actual winds (little difference with as)

- traffic at the airport (delays)

-cost index of that flight 

-payload

-their actual flight plan could be optimized for less fuel or less cost or wind optimized with weather avoidance, nats , volume

-a little divergence between flightradar24 and real flight

 

[30K 72]

And in addition to that:

• Airspace rules
• Company regulations (ETOPS airports, preferred ALTN, and so on)
• Curfews
• a ton of stuff I can't think of right now

Boi EWG, as an example, has a whole team on planning and stuff. I know it because they are based at the airport (and sometimes I grab sum flightplans from them 🙂)

Trust me you weren't doing it better than them.

Edited November 1, 2018 by 30K

[scandinavian13 5,192]

I think this is neat, and a fun comparative challenge. Not sure why everyone is on about externalities, and mitigating factors, and so on. For all anyone knows the real flight could've gotten a direct-to at some point and beaten him there, and I'm willing to bet that a lot of people would be less apt to criticise had it gone the other way. The factors go both ways. I think most people here would recognize that they exist without being told.

Nice way to add some fun and a simple 'challenge' into the flying that could otherwise be boring, honestly.

[captainsazzman 83]

On 11/1/2018 at 2:08 PM, scandinavian13 said:

I think this is neat, and a fun comparative challenge. Not sure why everyone is on about externalities, and mitigating factors, and so on. For all anyone knows the real flight could've gotten a direct-to at some point and beaten him there, and I'm willing to bet that a lot of people would be less apt to criticise had it gone the other way. The factors go both ways. I think most people here would recognize that they exist without being told.

Nice way to add some fun and a simple 'challenge' into the flying that could otherwise be boring, honestly.

hello kyle, what remaining fuel would you recommend for the 747-8? I like to make sure I land with 15,000KG and put enough fuel that the Progress page says I should land with 23,000KG. Secondly, why does the estimated arrival fuel and actual landing fuel never match up?

[Captain Kevin 586]

Estimated is just that, an estimate. Not knowing how much it said you should have and how much you actually landed with, hard to say since I don't know what the difference between the two is.

[scandinavian13 5,192]

2 hours ago, captainsazzman said:

hello kyle, what remaining fuel would you recommend for the 747-8? I like to make sure I land with 15,000KG and put enough fuel that the Progress page says I should land with 23,000KG. Secondly, why does the estimated arrival fuel and actual landing fuel never match up?

I throw in 16000 (lbs) as a landing min, and tack the alternate, contingency, and so on, on top of that.

Estimated and actual not matching up usually means that you're not setting it up closely enough to reality. In other words, ensure you've imported the wind for the altitude you're using, and following the plan you've planned. If there's a constant speed segment (flying a NAT? that's constant speed), or an altitude-restricted (NAT, again) leg in your plan, but you fly CI and steps the whole time, that will cause what you're seeing.

Plans are great. The resultant values are good for getting an idea of what will likely happen. If you don't follow that plan and the numbers don't match, then that isn't the fault of the plan (or plane).

[captainsazzman 83]

1 minute ago, scandinavian13 said:

I throw in 16000 (lbs) as a landing min, and tack the alternate, contingency, and so on, on top of that.

Estimated and actual not matching up usually means that you're not setting it up closely enough to reality. In other words, ensure you've imported the wind for the altitude you're using, and following the plan you've planned. If there's a constant speed segment (flying a NAT? that's constant speed), or an altitude-restricted (NAT, again) leg in your plan, but you fly CI and steps the whole time, that will cause what you're seeing.

Plans are great. The resultant values are good for getting an idea of what will likely happen. If you don't follow that plan and the numbers don't match, then that isn't the fault of the plan (or plane).

might be flight plan stuff. sometimes i ignore the custom step climb altitudes in a long haul when I'm too  lazy to program them in (and let auto step do its thing)

[scandinavian13 5,192]

9 minutes ago, captainsazzman said:

might be flight plan stuff. sometimes i ignore the custom step climb altitudes in a long haul when I'm too  lazy to program them in (and let auto step do its thing)

That'll do it. The prediction is only as good as its ability to predict your behavior.