So what happened to Navigraph survey results?

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

There are a couple of other interesting tidbits in the results. First, the market penetration of VR among respondents increased since 2017, but it is still very low. Second, about one third of respondents are considering switching sims, with slightly more favoring XP than P3d. If that projection is accurate, the roughly equal split between the two sims should continue, I'm assuming at the expense of FSX.

[ErichB 3,637]

I always thought a generally good barometer of the core flightsim market was reflected in the subscriber numbers to people like Matt Davies and Froogle’s YouTube channels.  I generally expected the respondent numbers in this survey to be at least half of their subscriber numbers, but it isn’t anywhere near. Shows you how much of a patchwork the community really is. 

[GCBraun 2,390]

3 hours ago, jabloomf1230 said:

There are a couple of other interesting tidbits in the results. First, the market penetration of VR among respondents increased since 2017, but it is still very low. Second, about one third of respondents are considering switching sims, with slightly more favoring XP than P3d. If that projection is accurate, the roughly equal split between the two sims should continue, I'm assuming at the expense of FSX.

Regarding VR, I think over 10% market penetration for mostly 1st. generation devices is quite remarkable. That is about half of what TrackIR and other head-trackers have and those have been present in the market for over a decade.

I also think that once users experience VR, most of them tend to continue using it, so this percentage should only grow from this point.

[carrotroot 77]

16 hours ago, Rob Ainscough said:

I agree with the XP11 growth but I wouldn't assume that is coming from users leaving FSX ... many of us are multi-platform.  Also keep in mind this survey was done before P3D V4.4 released that had significant updates with PBR and higher resolution PR and further draw distances. 

I'm very doubtful that the inclusion of PBR would have resulted in any meaningful shift in the results of the survey, it not as a significant improvement as the move to 64bit was over a year ago. There are other factors at work for instance market availability, P3D isn't sold outside of Lockheed Martin's website, X-Plane is sold on steam and is often goes on sale for $40USD or less -- this lowers a barrier to entry for many people.

Also, it's difficult to maintain 2 platforms (especially if the average user is spending around $200 a year in addons)... overtime people will tend to spend more time in a single sim.

 

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

6 hours ago, GCBraun said:

Regarding VR, I think over 10% market penetration for mostly 1st. generation devices is quite remarkable. That is about half of what TrackIR and other head-trackers have and those have been present in the market for over a decade.

I also think that once users experience VR, most of them tend to continue using it, so this percentage should only grow from this point.

TrackIR is not even a niche product for mainstream gamers. VR headsets are purchased for more than just flightsim use. Most of the 1st gen headsets have been purchased out of curiosity because of the novelty of VR. Until the consumer VR headset technology/price point improves, the adoption rate will continue to be low. Forget about PC-based flightsimming for a second and consider that VR adoption rates on consoles are weak also. Console game developers continue to focus on tailoring their products to 4k flat panel displays.

[GCBraun 2,390]

2 minutes ago, jabloomf1230 said:

TrackIR is not even a niche product for mainstream gamers. VR headsets are purchased for more than just flightsim use. Most of the 1st gen headsets have been purchased out of curiosity because of the novelty of VR. Until the consumer VR headset technology/price point improves, the adoption rate will continue to be low. Forget about PC-based flightsimming for a second and consider that VR adoption rates on consoles are weak also. Console game developers continue to focus on tailoring their products to 4k flat panel displays.

I don’t believe VR will ever become mainstream, but it will be an important niche in a niche market such as flight or race simming. The fact that all major platforms already support VR natively is a clear indication of that. 

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

Having cast a dark shadow on  VR (I'm not sure if it's from a 2D or 3D cloud, though) I still think that VR has the potential to take over the console and smartphone gaming market. The main barrier is not having comparable IQ to a 4k monitor at a reasonable price. The PC gaming market is unfortunately another story. The PC market will need a blockbuster game to create the demand for VR.

I also expect that at some point in the near future a company will release a high res prosumer VR headset designed just for flightsim use. The market will be similar to the target market for nVidia Titan video cards and the cost will be in the thousand(s) of US dollars range.

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

2 hours ago, carrotroot said:

Also, it's difficult to maintain 2 platforms (especially if the average user is spending around $200 a year in addons)... overtime people will tend to spend more time in a single sim.

I always thought that too, but I have bought just the payware basics for XP11 (weather, ATC, AI traffic and a few airports and aircraft). That no frills setup suits me fine for every day GA flying. On the other hand, my P3d4 installation has a lot of payware, but a good portion of it is FSX vintage that got either free or discounted P3d upgrades. That complex setup works for a wide variety of flight and aircraft types.

You can somewhat see that same dichotomy in survey results, as P3d4 has more heavy usage, although XP11 has more total usage.

Edited December 20, 2018 by jabloomf1230
Typo

[HiFlyer 9,337]

Most predictions are of up to 65 million vr headsets of various sorts out there by 2022. And about 7 million out there now.

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

As long as we're making predictions, mine is that the future of gaming will be entirely cloud based and not require either a PC or a console.  You'll just buy a subscription from either Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony, Apple, Google or Amazon and just play. Your TV is already a WiFi device and headsets will also be wireless.

[HiFlyer 9,337]

23 minutes ago, jabloomf1230 said:

As long as we're making predictions, mine is that the future of gaming will be entirely cloud based and not require either a PC or a console.  You'll just buy a subscription from either Microsoft, Nintendo, Sony, Apple, Google or Amazon and just play. Your TV is already a WiFi device and headsets will also be wireless.

Mine was not a personal prediction, but following business news forbes, etc. https://www.statista.com/statistics/426469/active-virtual-reality-users-worldwide/

https://www.roadtovr.com/valve-monthly-active-vr-users-on-steam-are-up-160-year-over-year/

I don't trust my own anecdotal impressions, so I continually read to keep track of what the actual numbers seem to be. Then, like the numbers from this survey, people can take those numbers and add their own spin.

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

VR growth projections have been consistently overestimated.

[HiFlyer 9,337]

6 minutes ago, jabloomf1230 said:

VR growth projections have been consistently overestimated.

Could be. But somebody must believe in it. Just this month three new higher-end headsets have been announced....

I don't think X-plane, P3D or anyone looking to the future intends to be left behind or be caught napping on this.

Honestly, I always thought one of DTG sims possible failures/deal breakers for many was no visible path to VR.

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

The poor sales of Aerofly FS2 is somewhat related to IPACS misjudging the speed of VR adoption. 

[HiFlyer 9,337]

1 hour ago, jabloomf1230 said:

The poor sales of Aerofly FS2 is somewhat related to IPACS misjudging the speed of VR adoption. 

I respect that you believe that, but as I said, I tend to look for concrete corroborating info before accepting anecdotal information. As I said, I don't even trust my own anecdotal musings if I can't summon verifiable facts to support them.

You'll notice I am almost always sure to say "I think" or "I believe" or "I thought" because I distrust blanket statements of unsupported fact, and I always keep in mind I could be completely wrong.......

In regards to this survey however, I've seen not a thing that couldn't have been predicted by anyone paying attention. X-plane racing ahead, P3D moving along, Aerofly tiny in comparison, Dcs with a dedicated fanbase..... I could have inferred all that even if this survey never existed.

Including that partisans of one side or another would spin things like mad if the results did not match their preconceptions, which is why I decided not to take the survey.