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12 minutes ago, domkle said:

Maybe Alan was joking, who knows  :laugh:?

 

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Edited by Alan_A
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Just now, Superdelphinus said:

The original house of cards...

The good one.

Satire/black comedy > melodrama

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4 hours ago, Ron Attwood said:

I do. And the joke inferred that climate change is real.

Well isn't it?


Matthew S

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4 hours ago, byork said:

A lot of developers may go a way for a while.

But when FS2020 is released, it's going to be a new gold rush.

And especially with X-Box...  I'm trying to think about an X-Box version of FS2Crew.

It excites me and terrifies me at the same time 😉

But I stand by my words... except for a few hold outs, X-Plane and P3D in my view are gonna be history in 12 plus months.

But for the next 12 months or so, they're all we have.  And people will continue to enjoy them. 

Bryan - Thanks for your realistic view of things.  It is nice to hear the thoughts/insights from the established long-time developers.  It is also welcome to see this without an 'off the rails' rant about not having an SDK yet and the pleading to everyone to never again utter the phrase "I may not buy much for P3d until the release of MSFS".  I look forward to your products in the upcoming sim...and my guess is we will not have to wait "years" for them after MSFS has been released...😄


Eric

i9-12900k, RTX 3080ti FTW, 32GB ddr5 5600 RAM, 2TB 980 Pro SSD, H100i AIO, Samsung CRG90 49", Win 11

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Bryan,

Quote "But I stand by my words... except for a few hold outs, X-Plane and P3D in my view are gonna be history in 12 plus months"

I have to say that this is a very big call. I seriously wonder just how many simmers share this view, and further, are you talking about the Devs or the platforms themselves?

May I also ask, with respect, are you in receipt of information about the new platforms that we do not have.  If you do, I am not asking specifically what information that is. I acknowledge that you have no public association with Xplane as a third Party developer.

I listened and watched, briefly the XPlane Q & A last night and despite the horrible sound, which as difficult for me to hear and understand, I got just a little excited about the prospects of Vulkan.  I can only imagine that with new engines P3D can and will, like XPlane and MSFS2020 take every advantage of full multicore usage. 

I agree entirely with you, that the release of MSFS2020  will bring on a rush of new and old developers to the fray.  I also believe that the same will largely apply, (depending, of course, of the quality of their new efforts) to P3D and XPlane. MSFS has the advantage at this time, of being out there in the public eye. However, with the early release of the screenshots and information now in the public forum, I believe that they will give a huge benefit to both P3D and XPlane in that, those developers know just where the bar is sitting.  It may well be that some catchup will be involved in much the same way as AMD has overtaken Intel in the CPU arena.  

If, as you say, P3D and Xplane, are not currently in the new release loop, and cannot match MSFS I would imagine they would fold fairly quickly. The thing in their favour for continued existence, is obviously the financial backing of two reasonably big companies, and, of course, the community backing.

With all due respect, and I sincerely mean that, I really, really hope, that you are very wrong.  I do not think that only one player (regardless of how good it is) is ever going to be good for the community.

Regards

Tony

Oh and very good to hear that you are going forward with MSFS  

 

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Tony Chilcott.

 

My System. Motherboard. ASRock Taichi X570 CPU Ryzen 9 3900x (not yet overclocked). RAM 32gb Corsair Vengeance (2x16) 3200mhz. 1 x Gigabyte Aorus GTX1080ti Extreme and a 1200watt PSU.

1 x 1tb SSD 3 x 240BG SSD and 4 x 2TB HDD

OS Win 10 Pro 64bit. Simulators ... FS2004/P3Dv4.5/Xplane.DCS/Aeroflyfs2...MSFS to come for sure.

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7 hours ago, himmelhorse said:

I seriously wonder just how many simmers share this view,

Hello Tony,

I do, at least in a way.

P3D: I wouldn't be surprised if P3D went back to what it was always intended to be - a training tool for commercial and government customers only. Personally I see home cockpit builders as professional customers, so they will probably stay with the platform for the time being too (being bound by their hardware solutions). But the number of users is basically irrelevant, since they are not paying for the sim anymore (developer licenses nonwithstanding). The end user market will probably collapse, and I think that end user sales of the simulator itself have already almost stopped. If I were a long time FSX user, I would think twice about buying into P3D in the present situation, especially when confronted with the license terms. The new FSX:SE beta program doesn't help with that decision either. I don't expect big strides in further development of P3D for the forseeable future. Lockheed will have their development plan/roadmap/backlog mapped out for 12-18 months into the future. They will not take major risks or deviations from it, since their main concern is compatibility and continuity. Professional customers don't update the same way that end users do. Every sim installation cost money to build and to maintain, every update means extra effort that they have to pay for - and while you are updating, you can't use it, so you have a loss of productivity too. Updating a complex production environment is usually seen as a risk, and you only go there if you absolutely have to. 

XP: I don't think that a major shift will happen in the XP world. It will be noticable, but much less so than with P3D. XP has the trek to Vulkan to pull off, and I think that it will take a while to get everything working smoothly again. When that is done, XP is still on the same visual level that it is now, just on a new tech. Only then can developers think of taking the next step - while in this special case that step is not really that well defined. XP can already provide something like what MSFS can do scenery wise, albeit with less fidelity and much more work or cost to consider. It doesn't have to take that much of a leap IMHO.

Best regards

Edited by Lorby_SI
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LORBY-SI

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Oliver,

I do very much respect your opinion, and to some degree, I understand your logic, particularly regarding LM going back to their roots.  I have to reiterate though, that I believe the collapse of even one of our platforms is not going to be good for our community.

I hope it does not happen, but, if a platform is not good enough or is not prepared to put in the R & D dollars to compete, then I would assume that collapse/slow decline is precisely what is inevitable.  I have always cheered for the underdog and MSFS has certainly turned our community on it ear. Long may it live as long as it maintains the standards it may have already set.

Thanks for your wise words

Regards

Tony  


Tony Chilcott.

 

My System. Motherboard. ASRock Taichi X570 CPU Ryzen 9 3900x (not yet overclocked). RAM 32gb Corsair Vengeance (2x16) 3200mhz. 1 x Gigabyte Aorus GTX1080ti Extreme and a 1200watt PSU.

1 x 1tb SSD 3 x 240BG SSD and 4 x 2TB HDD

OS Win 10 Pro 64bit. Simulators ... FS2004/P3Dv4.5/Xplane.DCS/Aeroflyfs2...MSFS to come for sure.

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9 hours ago, Lorby_SI said:

P3D: I wouldn't be surprised if P3D went back to what it was always intended to be - a training tool for commercial and government customers only.

They never left their roots as a professional training platform, so honestly there's no where to go back to...

I honestly believe that flightsim enthusiasts have vastly over-inflated their importance to L-M and Prepar3D. It has been nice to be allowed to come along for the ride, but simmers have never been the focus of their efforts.

Some developers will remain as P3D developers for the actual professional target market, as well as embracing MSFS when the marketplace opens for business.

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Fr. Bill    

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5 minutes ago, n4gix said:

so honestly there's no where to go back to...

I meant that in the commercial sense. The end user sales go away, and what remains is what LM have built their business case on in the first place. It wouldn't make sense to factor the home simmer market into that, when at the same time the licensing excludes the whole segment. So I tend to believe that they didn't.

Best regards

Edited by Lorby_SI

LORBY-SI

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5 minutes ago, n4gix said:

They never left their roots as a professional training platform, so honestly there's no where to go back to...

I honestly believe that flightsim enthusiasts have vastly over-inflated their importance to L-M and Prepar3D. It has been nice to be allowed to come along for the ride, but simmers have never been the focus of their efforts.

 

If LM has taken simmers to "come along for the ride" I doubt that it is out of the goodness of heart. That would be rather unusual to see a large corporation entertaining (pun non intended)  for 9 years a minor activity to serve a market out of their customer base core  if  it was not highly profitable, money-wise or part of a larger strategy. 

 

 

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Dominique

Simming since 1981 -  4770k@3.7 GHz with 16 GB of RAM and a 1080 with 8 GB VRAM running a 27" @ 2560*1440 - Windows 10 - Warthog HOTAS - MFG pedals - MSFS Standard version with Steam

 

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21 minutes ago, domkle said:

If LM has taken simmers to "come along for the ride" I doubt that it is out of the goodness of heart. That would be rather unusual to see a large corporation entertaining (pun non intended)  for 9 years a minor activity to serve a market out of their customer base core  if  it was not highly profitable, money-wise or part of a larger strategy. 

The strategy was to gain many, many people who were willing to pay for the privilege of being testers for P3D development... Seriously! That's why P3D has forums of their own to allow for such feedback and suggestions.

That also includes many (most?) commercial developers as well as some freeware developers who were likewise happy to pay for the opportunity to be the more valuable beta testers, who also developed a secondary market for Joe Serious Simmer to enhance their own experience and (gasp!) fun. I can guarantee everyone that developer feedback has proven extremely valuable for the P3D team. That is why P3D has a separate, dedicated forum for developer's feedback and testing reports.

In my view, that has been a brilliant strategy.

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Fr. Bill    

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     Avsim Board of Directors | Avsim Forums Moderator

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19 minutes ago, domkle said:

If LM has taken simmers to "come along for the ride" I doubt that it is out of the goodness of heart. That would be rather unusual to see a large corporation entertaining (pun non intended)  for 9 years a minor activity to serve a market out of their customer base core  if  it was not highly profitable, money-wise or part of a larger strategy. 

 

 

Of course it was beneficial for them. Where else do you get paying beta testers for a product which is intended for professional training? 😛

A wide number of beta testers is extremely useful for finding out about certain bugs which might be missed in the internal testing due to the variety of different hardware combinations and so on.

 

@n4gix Whops we posted at the same time 😄

Edited by france89
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Chock 1.1: "The only thing that whines louder than a jet engine is a flight simmer."

 

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Not a problem. It's good to see additional support for my comments... :tongue:


Fr. Bill    

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     Avsim Board of Directors | Avsim Forums Moderator

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2 minutes ago, n4gix said:

In my view, that has been a brilliant strategy.

In addition, allowing consumers into the house has generated a great deal of goodwill for LM - which, while may not be a consumer company, is funded by taxpayer dollars, so it needs their support.  Cultivating a good relationship with enthusiastic "civilians" has the same value as buying naming rights to sports stadiums, or taking out image ads in consumer media.  Not the only value of consumer access to P3D - I agree that an army of paying beta testers comes first - but it's an added benefit.  Smart move all around.

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