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nickhod

Some Bold Predictions

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All of these are just my take on what's known so far. Pure speculation before anyone says "that's just speculation".¬†ūüėÄ

1) Aircraft will be much easier to develop. With a good built-in physics model, and out-the-box rain and icing effects, there will be less or no custom code to write.
Creating an aircraft will mainly be 3D modelling, texture and animation work and setting parameters for the physics engine to use.

2) The included aircraft will be very good and 3rd party versions of those will be a hard sell. I can see the default 747 being excellent quality and meeting many people's needs.

3) People will be slightly disappointed with non-photogrametry cities that aren't big tourist destinations. We've been spoiled with screenshots and videos of scenery that looks unbelievably realistic. However, there's no way Asobo can create accurate models for every tall building and other POIs in an average non-photogrametry city. I wonder if current expectations outstrip practicalities here.

4) There will be a lot of quick-and-dirty FSX aircraft ports and some backlash against that. I was surprised that MSFS is going to include a compatibility mode for legacy FSX physics. Personally I think they should have forced a clean slate to drive up quality. It's not hard to imagine some developers charging full price for bulk (relatively) low effort ports.

5) They will deliver VR pretty soon after release, or at release, maybe in an beta mode initially. I'm still shocked it wasn't prioritised early on. They risk every review of the game making a big play on it "lacking features that simmers expect, like VR".
Edit: Reviewers will inevitably compare it to other sims which have native VR. Whether you or I want VR or not is almost irrelevant to my general point here.

6) The (rumoured) in-game add on store will allow smaller, dedicated developers to shine and penalise low quality shovel-ware with bad reviews. This will be a good thing overall.

7) Smaller add-on developers who rely on scenery and airports for their income may, unfortunately, go out of business. The reality will be that people can get a lot of hours of enjoyment out of the game without spending an extra penny.

8 ) It'll be available via XBox Game pass exclusively for a few weeks or months, and only then available as a one-time purchase. It's surely too tempting for them not to do this. They could probably pick up tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of XBox Game Pass subscriptions in a few weeks.

Edited by nickhod
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about point 4) i think with this option people will realize the differences in the old flight physics and the new one much more,

and once this happened nobody will fly old FSX physics ūüėĄ

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37 minutes ago, nickhod said:

4) There will be a lot of quick-and-dirty FSX aircraft ports and some backlash against that. I was surprised that MSFS is going to include a compatibility mode for legacy FSX physics. Personally I think they should have forced a clean slate to drive up quality. It's not hard to imagine some developers charging full price for bulk (relatively) low effort ports.

5) They will deliver VR pretty soon after release, or at release, maybe in an beta mode initially. I'm still shocked it wasn't prioritised early on. They risk every review of the game making a big play on it "lacking features that simmers expect, like VR".

On point 4 I suspect one of the reasons for the compatibility mode is to get round people arguing that their favourite plane's not available in the new sim so they're sticking with their current sim.This way they're more likely to test out the new sim earlier than they would have otherwise.

As for point 5 I can categorically state that yours truly does not possess a VR headset, is in no great rush to acquire one and frankly couldn't give a toss whether the new sim will support VR at launch or not so I feel that statement does not in anyway speak for the majority of simmers.

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Give people power to really test their personality.

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37 minutes ago, nickhod said:

3) People will be slightly disappointed with non-photogrametry cities that aren't big tourist destinations. We've been spoiled with screenshots and videos of scenery that looks unbelievably realistic. However, there's no way Asobo can create accurate models for every tall building and other POIs in an average non-photogrametry city. I wonder if current expectations outstrip practicalities here.

7) Smaller add-on developers who rely on scenery and airports for their income may, unfortunately, go out of business. The reality will be that people can get a lot of hours of enjoyment out of the game without spending an extra penny.

8 ) It'll be available via XBox Game pass exclusively for a few weeks or months, and only then available as a one-time purchase. It's surely too tempting for them not to do this. They could probably pick up tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of XBox Game Pass subscriptions in a few weeks.

3) In the X019 event some french youtuber guy (there's a video here on the forum) asked the devs to show an specific area near Muscat - Oman. A place none of the devs had tested before and the guy was amazed how the scenery looked accurate and beautiful on the sim. I wouldn't say Muscat is a tourist destination nor an important city (worldwide).

7) Scenery wise, there will be a lot of space to populate the world with custom made skyscrapers, POIs and landmarks in areas not covered by photogrammetry. About airports, I'm 100% sure there will be space for good developers like orbx (as they develop small/medium airports). The default airports might happen to be good enought, but there will always be the need for improved/more accurate/updated versions of the airports. 

8 ) Don't think so. Microsoft never have put any of their titles exclusively acessible through the Game Pass, they always made it available on their store on the release day. Actualy, sometimes, it was the other way around, the game first became available on the store and only after a while it got to the Game Pass.

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5 minutes ago, ca_metal said:

3) the guy was amazed how the scenery looked accurate and beautiful on the sim. I
7) Scenery wise, there will be a lot of space to populate the world with custom made skyscrapers, POIs and landmarks in areas not covered by photogrammetry.
8 ) Don't think so. Microsoft never have put any of their titles exclusively acessible through the Game Pass

It's good to know that first-hand reviews of less popular places are good. I agree that the community will be there to make "POI packs" where stuff is lacking.

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15 minutes ago, SamYeager said:

As for point 5 I can categorically state that yours truly does not possess a VR headset, is in no great rush to acquire one and frankly couldn't give a toss whether the new sim will support VR at launch or not so I feel that statement does not in anyway speak for the majority of simmers.

To clarify, before this turns into another VR thread ūü§ź, my point is that because P3D and XP support VR natively, it's inevitable that comparisons will be made when the game is released.

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2 hours ago, nickhod said:

 

Look who is here :smile: ! Glad to see you back Nick.

 

1) Aircraft will be much easier to develop.  

See following point

2) The included aircraft will be very good and 3rd party versions of those will be a hard sell. 

This is a probable new paradigm for default aircraft, I agree. The good side of it, is that the best developers will have to do their utmost to outshine Asobo birds.  Win/win situation for us.  

5) They will deliver VR pretty soon after release, 

In the French interview, Sébastien Wloch was pretty clear. They have a great experience in the matter but they don't want to rush to the market a lame stereoscopic VR. They want to perfect the interactions with the cockpit first. These people are serious about doing the right thing. If you understand French, listen to the vid. 

 7) Smaller add-on developers who rely on scenery and airports for their income may, unfortunately, go out of business. T 

Debatable. They can't do 48k airports. They will be a lot of room for free- and payware stuff.

8 ) It'll be available via XBox Game pass exclusively for a few weeks or months 

Hmmm, approaching the stormy zone now. I don't think that they are that stupid. Besides they would enter a shady territory as similar practices are  illegal in some countries (tied sales). 

 

Edited by domkle
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Dominique

Simming since 1981 -  4770k@3.7 GHz with 16 GB of RAM and a 1080 with 8 GB VRAM running a 27" @ 2560*1440 - Warthog HOTAS - MFG pedals - MFS Standard version with Steam

 

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A reasonable set of predictions. I agree with others in this thread¬†that VR may not be that big a thing. It‚Äôs still a minority hardware possession and reviewers¬†may dwell on it not because it‚Äôs important but simply because they have to find something to be ‚Äúcritical‚ÄĚ about.

My hope is that they make the engine highly extensible along the lines of Bohemia Interactive’s military sim games (Arma3). From the ground up Arma has had its own scripting language and mod making tools. That’s made it the base for a huge amateur industry for making missions and mods. That’s all been well supported with extensive documentation. They also have an excellent bug reporting and tracking portal. This has been a smart move by BI. It’s helped to maintain consumer engagement with their products, and the hive-mind of their consumers has actively helped the development of their games (e.g., the game’s ability to let you rest a firearm on a support started out as a community mod). Let your customers (a subset of them at least) have fun and do development/coding for you and pay you for the privilege!

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23 minutes ago, nickhod said:

To clarify, before this turns into another VR thread ūü§ź, my point is that because P3D and XP support VR natively, it's inevitable that comparisons will be made when the game is released.

qIZDvrG.jpg
 

instead of using ‚ÄúVR‚ÄĚ can we use ‚ÄúRV‚ÄĚ instead? It may be more palatable for some here¬†ūüėā

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Specs: I9-10900KF, RTX 3090 | 32bg ram I9-9900K Nvidia 1080 TI, 32bg ram | Headsets: HP Reverb, Samsung Odyssey OG, Oculus Rift, Oculus Quest and Oculus Go
Flight Simulators: MSFS, DCS

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C***, how people can transform an interesting thread into garbage...ūüėě

Edited by Nedo68
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why no " 9)  Will have amazing helicopters with great physics" ?


Ryzen 5 1600x - 16GB DDR4 - RTX 3050 8GB - MSI Gaming Plus

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1 hour ago, nickhod said:

1) Aircraft will be much easier to develop. With a good built-in physics model, and out-the-box rain and icing effects, there will be less or no custom code to write.
Creating an aircraft will mainly be 3D modelling, texture and animation work and setting parameters for the physics engine to use.

2) The included aircraft will be very good and 3rd party versions of those will be a hard sell. I can see the default 747 being excellent quality and meeting many people's needs.

3) People will be slightly disappointed with non-photogrametry cities that aren't big tourist destinations. We've been spoiled with screenshots and videos of scenery that looks unbelievably realistic. However, there's no way Asobo can create accurate models for every tall building and other POIs in an average non-photogrametry city. I wonder if current expectations outstrip practicalities here.

7) Smaller add-on developers who rely on scenery and airports for their income may, unfortunately, go out of business. The reality will be that people can get a lot of hours of enjoyment out of the game without spending an extra penny.

8 ) It'll be available via XBox Game pass exclusively for a few weeks or months, and only then available as a one-time purchase. It's surely too tempting for them not to do this. They could probably pick up tens, maybe hundreds of thousands of XBox Game Pass subscriptions in a few weeks.

1&2) Agreed.  At least at first.  People always eventually want new stuff.

3) Agreed, and it's why I'm glad Asobo aren't shying away from showing the odd bit of footage that brings home the reality of trying to procedurally model satellite data of the entire planet, which hopefully keeps expectations in check.  Managing hype is going to be one of Asobo's most important tasks up to release, or there could be an initial backlash when it isn't quite the magical be-all end-all planet simulator some people are already seeing in their heads based on promotional media.

7) Agreed, although I don't think it'll be quite as big of a wiping of the 3PD slate as some seem to anticipate.  I think airport scenery creators are going to be very busy, when it comes to a sim with 40,000+ airports to choose from.

#8 Won't happen. Microsoft are too sensitive to not rocking the boat with the flight sim community, and forcing simmers to get a Game Pass sub or wait for weeks or months, would needlessly aggravate that relationship.  However, they might find some other way to make having Game Pass a value for MSFS users anyway.

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25 minutes ago, HumptyDumpty said:

why no " 9)  Will have amazing helicopters with great physics" ?

It's on their roadmap but you won't see it anytime soon (even at release). Like VR, they want to do it perfectly (physics of helicopters work differently than airplanes).


MSFS Alpha Tester, please don't ask me any questions regarding the alpha.

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2 hours ago, nickhod said:

1) Aircraft will be much easier to develop. With a good built-in physics model, and out-the-box rain and icing effects, there will be less or no custom code to write.
Creating an aircraft will mainly be 3D modelling, texture and animation work and setting parameters for the physics engine to use

That is certainly a matter for the developers to consider, not for us the simmers unless the ease of development is also reflected on the prices of aircraft add-ons. That said I dont see any benefit at the moment since 737 will likely cost $140.

Within a year or two after the release we might see add-ons priced around $200. 


Ahmet Can

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The first developers to market aircraft (especially helicopters) with high visibility cockpits will do very well.

Low and slow to explore the world.

These were the first to come to mind.

Bell 47

Lockwood Aircam

Ultralights

 

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