Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[BillCusick 75]

18 hours ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

Crikey! Haven’t bought those in decades. Muesli these days but bit tricky to apply. 😁

A walking stick works beautifully....

Regards

Bill

[martin-w 3,234]

Apparently there's a study that suggests blood type plays a role in how badly you get Covid and whether you are more likely to die. This study has not been peer reviewed, so don't take it as gospel but it suggests that people with Type O blood may be better protected and people with Type A blood might be worse off. I'm type B+ so no idea what that means. Average risk I presume. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/coronavirus-covid-19-blood-type-link-risk-infect-chinese-study-12570290

 

[Reader 2,009]

UK

Fact: there are no more people or animals to be fed than there were before this started.

Government state: do not go out except for food. If possible order online for home delivery. Result: no online deliveries at all from anywhere available for at least three weeks, the full initial length of the "lockdown". People have been reserving delivery slots for themselves for three weeks when they are in no need of any purchases. Therefore the vulnerable cannot get a look in.

Go to the shops instead. Wait outside, 2m from the next person, eventually go inside, shop shelves empty. Result: despite assurances to the contrary, the food chain is not coping, stupidity and selfishness has overwhelmed it. This despite the fact that the entire catering trade has been closed down, presumably leaving a vast amount of unused food somewhere and that no one can be found who will admit to buying anything extra.

Try to order dog food from the supplier that has been used for years. Result: website closed to allow staff to catch up with massive orders, to feed exactly the same number of animals.

Inevitable result: refuse collectors report that bins are filling with waste fresh food that has been stockpiled but now gone rotten. Millions of people must be filling their homes with products in such quantities that they will never be used, while those who actually need them can find none for sale.

There are of course vast numbers of people who are far worse off than this on a daily basis and this is very much a self-inflicted first world problem, even though it seems to have spread everywhere. It is however frustrating that it need not be happening at all.

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by Reader

[Biggles2010 342]

2 hours ago, martin-w said:

Apparently there's a study that suggests blood type plays a role in how badly you get Covid and whether you are more likely to die. This study has not been peer reviewed, so don't take it as gospel but it suggests that people with Type O blood may be better protected and people with Type A blood might be worse off. I'm type B+ so no idea what that means. Average risk I presume. 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/coronavirus-covid-19-blood-type-link-risk-infect-chinese-study-12570290

 

Interesting study. The third hospital results were stated as inconclusive, but they actually seem to reinforce the results from the other two. Am I missing something.

At Shenzhen Third People’s Hospital, 29 per cent of the control population (23,386) had blood group A and 39 per cent blood group O. 

Of the 285 COVID-19 patients, 28.8 per cent had blood group A and 28.4 per cent blood group O. 

The control population blood group proportions suggest that with no other factors involved, you might expect similar proportions in the infected group. 

In fact the group O cases look to be less than might have been expected, suggesting that the blood group may be a factor.

[Chock 17,769]

29 minutes ago, Biggles2010 said:

The third hospital results were stated as inconclusive, but they actually seem to reinforce the results from the other two. Am I missing something.

When they say 'inconclusive' they don't mean that the results were contrary to what they tended to indicate, they mean that without further study, there is the possibility that any conclusion drawn from that specific example could - until they can absolutely confirm otherwise - equally be an unusual 'blip' in the statistics of what would normally be the case. Because of that, it would be premature to draw any conclusion which one could have absolute confidence in. After all, the primary objective at the time those stats were taken, was not to study such a trend, but to treat the patients, so it was unlikely to have taken place in an environment where the careful control of any influencing factors was taking place when saving lives was of course the priority.

Let's say you roll a pair of dice and both come up six, then you do it nine more times and every time they both come up six to give you ten double sixes in a row. It'd be freaky and it might tend to indicate that these dice always land on six, but it could still just possibly be a fluke that you got ten double sixes in a row. So until you give it a few more tries, and also examine the dice and indeed the surface you are rolling the dice on and anything else which might potentially influence the result of the dice rolls, you would be incorrect to draw a decisive conclusion based solely on those ten throw results with no other analysis.

Of course after a thorough and detailed analysis, you might indeed accurately conclude that the dice are loaded, but until then, it is entirely possible - albeit freaky - that you could roll ten double sixes in a row with a completely ordinary pair of dice. Just as it is possible that people of a particular blood group might do better in recovering from a viral infection purely by chance.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Chock

[Biggles2010 342]

27 minutes ago, Chock said:

When they say 'inconclusive' they don't mean that the results were contrary to what they tended to indicate, they mean that without further study, there is the possibility that any conclusion drawn from that specific example could - until they can absolutely confirm otherwise

I understand what you say and don't really disagree. My post was about the curious nature of the figures for Shenzhen, and I was not suggesting any conclusion should be assumed.

Reading further down the report it says:

Although there was a significant difference between the patients of COVID-19 with blood groups A and O in the Wuhan hospitals, there was no significant difference in the Shenzhen hospital.

The figures they provide for the control group suggest they might have expected a higher number of infected patients than they had, in group O, if blood groups did not influence the infection rate. That seems farely evident. Of course all this is speculative until validated.

[Dominique_K 10,133]

Hey the youngsters

Beyond statistics, there is life. My son who is a MD in Paris tells us about one colleague's wife  and one colleague who are  in reanimation,. Both below 40 yo. Both without prior conditions.

More and more, at ground level, there is the feeling that acute forms of this illness strike very hard the young.

Be careful.

 

 

[martin-w 3,234]

4 hours ago, Reader said:

UK

Fact: there are no more people or animals to be fed than there were before this started.

Result: no online deliveries at all from anywhere available for at least three weeks, the full initial length of the "lockdown". People have been reserving delivery slots for themselves for three weeks when they are in no need of any purchases. Therefore the vulnerable cannot get a look in.

 

 

 

 

My son has just seen on Facebook, a guy requesting Morison's online delivery... 129,000 in the queue. 😦

[Biggles2010 342]

3 minutes ago, domkle said:

More and more, at ground level, there is the feeling that acute forms of this illness strike very hard the young.

Definitely.  It's happening in other countries too. There have been a number of similar cases in the UK. It might persuade some of the remaining young rebels to comply with the precautions.

[martin-w 3,234]

3 minutes ago, domkle said:

Hey the youngsters

Beyond statistics, there is life. My son who is a MD in Paris tells us about one colleague's wife  and one colleague who are  in reanimation,. Both below 40 yo. Both without prior conditions.

More and more, at ground level, there is the feeling that acute forms of this illness strike very hard the young.

Be careful.

 

 

 

I'm thinking maybe those in the medical profession, treating patents with Covid, working all hours, utterly exhausted, probably have weakened immune systems and are thus more susceptible to infection and more susceptible to severe consequences. 

[martin-w 3,234]

Who knew Sabine Hossenfelder one of my favourite physicists had a good voice. 😀

 

 

[CYXR 257]

33 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Who knew Sabine Hossenfelder one of my favourite physicists had a good voice. 😀

 

 

I`m a great fan of hers too! She`s perhaps the only quantum gravity physicist who has the ovaries to do a music video in a library. 

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by CYXR

[martin-w 3,234]

Amazing how many physicists are musically minded. Sabine is great, although I think a bit too sceptical of other physicists theories at times

 

Edited March 26, 2020 by martin-w

[Dominique_K 10,133]

43 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Amazing how many physicists are musically minded. Sabine is great, although I think a bit too sceptical of other physicists theories at times

 

I love when Feynman says, at the beginning of one of his course, after being presented as a Nobel prize winner but also an accomplished bongo player, that he was never introduced in a cabaret as a leading physicist.

Sharing your skepticism about Sabine H.'s definitive views on some topics. 

Edited March 26, 2020 by domkle

[Alan_A 1,650]

A sharable reminder that the exponential growth curve works both ways...