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Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

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4 hours ago, G-RFRY said:

The problem is with large capital city's were people seem to think lock down does not apply to them and are turning into virus hot spots London is an example. in Europe Madrid Paris now Rome Berlin, and I was shocked to see a porcelain factory in Italy shutting yesterday as the virus now spreads through Italy, Total lockdown I don't think so, and I have been reading reports that the first cases in some country's have been traced to a bar in Austria a sky resort that was kept quite, before the Italy outbreak.

It`s not only in large capital cites: I live in a small northern and isolated town of 1000 souls in a mostly uninhabited part of Canada where the polar vortex, bears, coy-wolves, mosquitoes and little black flies are the usual suspects. But a few days ago a hairdresser returning from a vacation in central America met her boyfriend who flew in from Eastern Europe at CYYZ in Toronto. Neither isolated on their way back here, needing to make several stops for gas and food along the way. The hairdresser resumed cutting and washing hair in her tiny house the morning after their arrival; because she needed the cash to pay for the vacation she couldn`t reasonably afford to have and to support her penniless boyfriend who entered Canada on a tourist VISA. The social backlash against them was immediate; in a place where and when it`s -50C we are still warm towards one another. On a more positive note, aside for a few half-dozen chronic smokers who huddle outside to smoke together, I reckon only  0,10 % of us are doing the wrong things. It`s not a whole lot but it`s still too much in a little world where fate, to reprise  Ernest K. Gann`s great title, is the hunter. 

 

 

 

 

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Excellent video of someone having fun whilst complying with the current climate. Staying at home - Check. Social distancing - Check. Exercising - Check. Having fun - Check (not necessarily part of the checklist, but it helps!). Apparently this chap is rather good on a trials bike (Toni Bou).

 

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My daughter just sent me a photograph she took while on her permitted excercise walk.

Lovely beach and turquoise blue sea. 😡 I'm stuck with paving slabs occasional bit of grass and a few trees. 

Okay, I exaggerated, I have got a big pond oposite my house and quite a few trees. Not a beach is it though.

Edited by martin-w

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52 minutes ago, HighBypass said:

Excellent video of someone having fun whilst complying with the current climate. Staying at home - Check. Social distancing - Check. Exercising - Check. Having fun - Check (not necessarily part of the checklist, but it helps!). Apparently this chap is rather good on a trials bike (Toni Bou).

 

My wifey would kill me the moment she saw the motorcycle inside 😄

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Apologies for returning to a sombre tone, but I hope you all don't mind me needing an outlet and discussing it here.

Both the wife and I have very, very mild symptoms and are on day 7 of 14 of self-isolation. Naturally we're worried in case it develops for either of us, but we were doing ok.

The illusion that everything will probably be fine has just been broken.
One of our best friends has just been sedated and intubated in hospital. No-one knows for how long, nor if he will actually recover.

Admitted yesterday afternoon with low oxygen levels and pneumonia, but seemingly not needing more than just some extra O2 and some drugs. Now he's in a medically-induced coma and on a ventilator.

He has no diagnosed underlying health conditions. He's only 33.

#StayHomeStaySafe
 


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19 minutes ago, F737NG said:

Both the wife and I have very, very mild symptoms and are on day 7 of 14 of self-isolation. Naturally we're worried in case it develops for either of us, but we were doing ok.

The illusion that everything will probably be fine has just been broken.
One of our best friends has just been sedated and intubated in hospital. No-one knows for how long, nor if he will actually recover.

Admitted yesterday afternoon with low oxygen levels and pneumonia, but seemingly not needing more than just some extra O2 and some drugs. Now he's in a medically-induced coma and on a ventilator.

He has no diagnosed underlying health conditions. He's only 33.

I don't know what to say other than that I hope that things stay at very, very mild for you and your wife until you get rid of it and I hope your friend will recover and do so quickly.


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1 hour ago, F737NG said:

Apologies for returning to a sombre tone

 Hang in - sincerely hoping that it stays mild for you and your wife, and that your friend makes it through.  You're in our thoughts.

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I have two trans-atlantic trips booked this year: Split, Croatia in June, and golfing in Scotland in August.

I’m assuming there’s about a 0% chance of Croatia happening, but still holding out a little bit of hope for Scotland.


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33 minutes ago, SteveFx said:

The FT has some excellent graphics that give more perspective than the raw numbers from who/worldcounters etc.

That's a fantastic presentation.

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incredible, i was talking just a few days about 8000 cases in germany with hope they dont rise more then south korea,

and we (germany) have right now almost 50,000 cases, and the total number of cases in the U.S. reached now 100,000

i really dont know where we are heading now.

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1 hour ago, Nedo68 said:

i really dont know where we are heading now.

Heading to a bad place, sorry to say.

I'm originally from New York City - born there, lived there for 47 years.  I have many friends there and do a lot of business there, so I keep in touch.  It's getting hard to take.  You can read the reports about the hospitals shortfalls.  I talked to a friend there this afternoon and he was telling me about hearing the ambulances running all the time.  Apparently the 911 emergency dispatch system is starting to break down under the strain. And they're still at least 2-3 weeks away from peak.

I wish I could find something there to be hopeful about.  My friend there did tell me about a friend of his who's 75 and asthmatic and contracted the virus.  He got through without needing to be hospitalized and he's on the mend.  So that's one thing.

Let's hope for the best, but we've got to start doing a much better job of preparing for the worst.

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Is the actual death rate possibly 0.1% as mentioned by Fauci today?  That should put people at ease if true.  But I have hard time reconciling that with what is going on in N.Y.  Regular flu with 0.1% death rate certainly has never overwhelmed a cities like what is going on now.

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30 minutes ago, gregda said:

Is the actual death rate possibly 0.1% as mentioned by Fauci today? 

Do you have a source for that?  Genuine question - I'm having trouble finding a reference.  If you have a link, please share.  To my knowledge, Fauci has been estimating the case fatality rate for the US in the range of 0.5 percent to 1 percent, which would make the best case about five times worse than seasonal flu.  There's confusion about the numbers because so few people have been tested - which leads some commentators to suggest that if there are a lot of asymptomatic cases - something we don't know because of our failure to test - then the case fatality rate would be much lower than what's been estimated. In practice, this is often presented as evidence that social distancing restrictions should be relaxed. In this formulation, lots of asymptomatic cases equals lower case fatality equals a less serious threat.

What all this ignores is the rate of contagion including from asymptomatic cases - which is generally put at 2.5 cases per infection, a high figure, though lower than the current Colorado estimate of 4 percent, which is frightengly high.  In other words, lots of asymptomatic cases may serve to pull down the case fatality rate in the immediate term, but from the standpoint of contagion they're not something to celebrate. It also ignores the hospitalization rate, which is running 10 percent or more, and the very high rate of hospitalized patients who need ICU beds.  That means the worst cases are extremely bad, and there are many more of them than there are with seasonal flu. And because of the lack of ventilators, protective gear and other essential hospital equipment, this is where the healthcare system get overwhelmed.  And if it can't recover, then the fatality rate goes much higher.

You're right that the picture in New York doesn't point to a seasonal flu-like rate of infection.  And unfortunately New York is just the leading edge of what's likely to happen elsewhere.

Wish I had happier news.

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33 minutes ago, gregda said:

Is the actual death rate possibly 0.1% as mentioned by Fauci today?

Didn't hear Dr. Fauci today, but China, where the pandemic started and where we have the most data, had a crude death rate of approximately 4%. We refer to it as crude death rate because it is not adjusted for age, sex or race, etc.. It is the total number of known COVID-19 cases who have died divided by the total number of known cases of COVID-19, pretty simple calculation. The United States currently is reporting approximately 104,000 cases of COVID-19 so I would expect in about 2 weeks or less here in the United States we will have approximately 4,100 deaths, currently our death rate is doubling every 3 days. Everyone is hoping social distancing and other measure being taken will begin to show a slowing down of new cases, but right now that hasn't happened we are still on the exponential growth phase of the epidemiological curve.

Martin 

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