Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[Biggles2010 343]

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

the numbers will probably increase.  But as I said, even if 100 million are infected it is still a very small percentage of an entire population.

This is true, but the problem is you can't always control the distribution. Suppose 50% of that 100 million were in the USA, the picture would not look so good.

 

 

[G-RFRY 1,711]

It has been mentioned the cure may be more painful than the disease, Financial meltdown.

[Alan_A 1,650]

5 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

It has been mentioned the cure may be more painful than the disease, Financial meltdown.

Except that consensus among economists seems to be that it's not an either/or - that higher death tolls lead to more economic damage.

Results of a University of Chicago survey of economists here: http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/policy-for-the-covid-19-crisis/

 

[birdguy 3,943]

Adrian, we are biologically animals and subject to the natural laws that affect animals.  We eat, sleep, reproduce, feel pain, get sick, and die like all the other animals.  We are more intelligent and a superior to them in many ways.  In many ways we are not.  

Not

[birdguy 3,943]

Biggles 2010 I think the distribution models are thus far pretty consistent.  It would take something very extraordinary to depart from the norm.  Th closest thing was Italy and it has the oldest population of any other country.  And given the most deaths occur in 70 and 80 and 90 year olds that wold be expected.

Noel

 

[birdguy 3,943]

Yeah Charlie.  Given my location I face that extra threat.

 

Noel

[Biggles2010 343]

38 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Biggles 2010 I think the distribution models are thus far pretty consistent.  It would take something very extraordinary to depart from the norm.  Th closest thing was Italy and it has the oldest population of any other country.  And given the most deaths occur in 70 and 80 and 90 year olds that wold be expected.

Agreed, and with anticipated numbers, that distribution will probably remain the case and this outbreak should be controlled eventually. But the 100 million deaths case you used as an example would be very extraordinary. If things increased to that level there might be a very different distribution, with concentrations in areas of denser population. It tended to happen with 50 million flu deaths in 1918. Not a nice thought.

[W2DR 1,860]

On 4/2/2020 at 1:46 PM, domkle said:

If you believe any data coming from China, you might be interested by a bridge I have in stock. Almost new, few scratches, a good price, the owner (a Nigerian prince) needs money and is in hurry to sell.

I can say the same thing about the data coming from the government in the USA. And I too have a bridge for sale. Mine is brand new and has no scratches. I own it myself so no one else is involved. Make me an offer..............

[W2DR 1,860]

9 hours ago, birdguy said:

I'm going to take a lot of flak for this but here goes.  And I am not suggesting that safeguards not be put into place.  However, the sky is not falling.

The mortality rate is not the whole story Noel. The sky is, indeed, falling. We're facing the greatest downturn in employment and the over-all economy since the 1930's. Millions of people will be without jobs. Business, both large and small, is coming to a standstill all across the country. The recovery from this disaster will take years. A huge percentage of people in this country live from paycheck-to-paycheck. How are they to survive the next few months or years? My wife and I are fortunate. In spite of the fact that our investments are in the toilet we have a fixed monthly income that will allow us to survive whatever happens. But we're in a small minority. Anyone who who says the sky isn't falling clearly doesn't understand the problem........Doug

 

[Jethro 65]

On ‎3‎/‎13‎/‎2020 at 4:03 AM, birdguy said:

So far 38 Americans have died of coronavirus this year.  So far 710 Americans have died of gun violence this year.  So you see my dilemma.  If I can only choose one when I go out should I wear a surgical mask or a bullet proof vest?  (Yes, I am being facetious here.)

Noel

 

You may need both in the USA where guns settle arguments, ( Just being real here) the preppers will jealously guard their perceived safety and survival booty. When economies/trade will inevitably collapse the virus won't matter. We'll just wait and see how the selfish prioritise the bubble of individual protection over the potential risk of viral contamination. Suspicion is a poisonous state of mind where fearful people can be unpredictable.

[birdguy 3,943]

I agree Doug.  While the sky might not be falling viz-aviz coronavirus deaths it certainly could be for our economic system.

Like you my wife and I have secure incomes with social security and my military retirement annuity.  But we will be facing other results of an economic collapse like food shortages.  The government can step in for a time but when revenue shortfalls hit due to unemployed people and failed taxes it could get ugly.  Our forms of government might be at risk.  The US has an election coming up in eight months.  Up to now we went to polling places to vote.  Will we be able to do that?  Can they come up with alternatives like mail-in ballots in eight months?  We live in dangerous times.  Jethro's underscores that for the US.

Noel

 

[Nedo68 533]

5 hours ago, W2DR said:

We're facing the greatest downturn in employment and the over-all economy since the 1930's. Millions of people will be without jobs. Business, both large and small, is coming to a standstill all across the country. The recovery from this disaster will take years.problem.......

 

I think it's gonna recover faster, the economy didnt stopped because it didnt worked well, it just halted a very healthy economy. The collapse 1930 had no good economy at all.

(Of course i could be wrong)

[Ray Proudfoot 8,954]

Unlike after WW2 all the infrastructure is in place for our respective economies to recover once the lockdowns have been lifted. It's not as though bombed cities have to be rebuilt.

The greatest contribution each of us can make to ridding us on this dreadful virus is to stay at home. I go to the supermarket once a week for food shopping  and controls are now in place to keep people apart. Given our expertise in queueing it should come as second nature. That is the only time I come close to contact with other people.

The most selfish and stupid thing people can do is drive away from their neighbourhood and go to the countryside. If you have a garden use that. If you don't then that's unfortunate but would you really want to be seen as being anti-social buy not staying at home and prolonging the lockdown?

On the financial side every country has a national debt. I don't know who is responsible for controlling that but it seems sensible that could be looked at and part of the slate wiped clean if possible.

[G-RFRY 1,711]

That`s the problem debt will have to be repaid it`s called austerity, you cut back on projects = unemployment = less sales = unemployment and so on  

PS the top ten most in debt country`s in the world 5 are in the EU clue 4 southern Europe + France they have no control over there currency they cannot devalue to help balance the books.    

Edited April 4, 2020 by G-RFRY

[Ray Proudfoot 8,954]

@G-RFRY, but to whom is the debt being repaid? The IMF I presume. What is the purpose of them holding so much money? To loan it out to countries in debt. It seems like a vicious circle that needs breaking for the good of everyone.