Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[Alan_A 1,650]

2 minutes ago, MartinRex007 said:

Alan - It appears after a cursory read of the paper that the author gives what would be the social, and critical healthcare needs of Germany depending on whether Rt is 1, 0 or 2. A Rt greater than 1 the epidemic will continue to grow, and a Rt lower that 1 will eventually die out. Each one comes with a social and monetary price. Currently looking at the graph Germany is doing very well with a Rt of  0.3. Also looks like the World in general is under 1 which is the direction you hope for.

Martin

That was my take - the only confusion was about their initial statement that the current Rt in Germany was 1, when it clearly seems to be under that.  Might be nothing more than a result of the time it took to get the paper written and published - the Rt=1 figure for Germany was current a couple of weeks ago.

Whatever the current figure is, it doesn't change their scenario planning, which is pessimistic about relaxing restrictions.

The paper I've been working on is similarly based on a set of best-case, intermediate-case and worst-case projections, but focused on economic impact.  It should be up in a couple of days - I'll post a link to it once it's public.

[MartinRex007 390]

15 minutes ago, Alan_A said:

That was my take - the only confusion was about their initial statement that the current Rt in Germany was 1, when it clearly seems to be under that.  Might be nothing more than a result of the time it took to get the paper written and published - the Rt=1 figure for Germany was current a couple of weeks ago.

Whatever the current figure is, it doesn't change their scenario planning, which is pessimistic about relaxing restrictions.

The paper I've been working on is similarly based on a set of best-case, intermediate-case and worst-case projections, but focused on economic impact.  It should be up in a couple of days - I'll post a link to it once it's public.

Look forward to reading it!

[F737MAX 5,598]

The macro level analysis of the virus, its spread, its containment (or lack thereof in the initial phase), the economic fallout and how to mitigate is highly interesting.
I look forward to reading your paper Alan.

On a micro level, I would really like to know when I'm no longer contagious. There's no definitive answer available. Though I did get some nasty symptoms, I never had a fever, so cannot base it on counting from when it broke.
I've been in self-isolation in the spare room for a long time now. Technically today is day 14 since I encountered the worst of it.
Still, I consider myself fortunate that I didn't have to go to hospital. Thankfully, my friend that did is now back home, though struggling somewhat with the physical and emotional impact it had on him.
 

[n4gix 4,947]

11 hours ago, dave2013 said:

There are also other less biased, more objective news sources out there.

Dave

I do read other sources aside from DKos. I don't even follow DKos as a "news source" anyway. I enjoy reading many of the comments. There are a lot of really bright people who reply there frequently

10 hours ago, birdguy said:

If any of you here are getting the 2400.00 and don't really need it I suggest St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital and the Shriners Children's Hospital can both use help.  They treat kids with cancer at no charge to the parents. 

Noel, St. Jude's is one of my favorite places to contribute. The past two years I've raised donations for my "Birthday Present".

As for Chloroquine, can guess who owns stock in the pharmaceutical company that produces it?

That is a rhetorical question incidently...

[Alan_A 1,650]

3 hours ago, F737NG said:

I look forward to reading your paper Alan.

Thanks - but actually it's a stretch to say it's mine.  There are credited authors - it's just something I'm helping out with (and drowning in the details of).  Part of my editorial heavy-lift operation... 😎

[Alan_A 1,650]

3 hours ago, F737NG said:

I've been in self-isolation in the spare room for a long time now. Technically today is day 14 since I encountered the worst of it.

Hope you continue to rebound, and glad to hear your friend is making it through.

I now have four friends in various stages of covid, all in and around New York City - thankfully no one worse that moderate, and all recovering now.

I also have one colleague in Massachusetts who has either covid or strep throat, no one's sure.  They've locked him in his bedroom for seven days just to be safe.

It's the times...

[birdguy 3,943]

Today the only state that showed an increase Covd-19 cases was California with 1,259.

So far the death toll in the US is 28,554.  Of course we don't know how many of those were the result of underlying causes.

As of today the world-wide death toll is 134,669.

In 2017 the 10 leading cause of death in the United States were:

Heat disease - 640,457

Cancer - 599,108

Accidents - 169,936

Respiratory Disease - 160,201 (and we still sell tobacco products and vaping devices)

Strokes - 146,383

Alzheimer's - 121,404

Diabetes - 83,564

Influenza - 55,672

Kidney Disease - 50,633

Suicide - 47,173

Just sayin'

Noel

 

 

As of today the world wide death tolll

[Alan_A 1,650]

1 minute ago, birdguy said:

So far the death toll in the US is 28,554.  Of course we don't know how many of those were the result of underlying causes.

Covid acts on underlying causes like heart disease, so those are covid deaths.  To say otherwise is to say that somebody died of blood loss, and the bullet through his chest had nothing to do with it. The person with heart disease who dies after contracting covid would not have died at that time if he or she hadn't contracted covid.

And the covid death count should probably be double the official figure.  Reporting problems are keeping it low - for example, in states that aren't counting covid deaths without a test.  But if someone dies at home, there's no test.  The New York at-home mortality figures are running at ten times normal rates, suggesting a massive covid undercount.

And once again, about those disease totals - you're comparing deaths over a 12-month period for those other diseases, to deaths in a six-week period for covid.

It's the growth rate that matters.

It's the impact on the healthcare system.

It's the contagion.

[Mallard 195]

...and it's the blatant ignorance and approach taken by people like Noel.

One of the issues with the low numbers in Germany was that, at least initially, covid was not mentioned on the death certificates - even if it was the trigger for the eventual catastrophic outcome of an individual's death. Exactly as Alan states it was then registered as something else.

Just today there was an - in my opinion - slightly alarming article in one of our online news outlets. According to a survey "more than a third of Irish people say they are unsure if they would accept a potential vaccine for Covid-19 if one was developed...". The only way around that would probably to simply say that if you haven't had the jab, you're not allowed out of your home.

 

https://www.thejournal.ie/covid-19-vaccine-mental-health-study-ireland-5075328-Apr2020/

 

It should be interesting to see if the numbers have changed when the second survey is undertaken in May.

 

Cheers

 

Mallard

[SteveFx 258]

I think you are being rather unfair on Noel.  He has done lots of research and is trying to understand from his own perspective whether the sacrifice being asked is worth it.

[G-RFRY 1,711]

Covid-19 has become Political that`s why some country`s want to come out of lockdown now, you know who they are one effect if it goes on to long the collapse of the EU and the EURO. You cannot go on printing money without a comeback. 

[KevinAu 441]

4 hours ago, birdguy said:

So far the death toll in the US is 28,554.  Of course we don't know how many of those were the result of underlying causes.

Just sayin'

Noel

The reason it is at 28554 today is because of the lockdowns, the social distancing and the masks. Otherwise, it would be a much higher number. The whole reason we are doing all those measures is so that people like you can say ‘what was the big deal?’

Fighting a disease is like fighting terrorism. The success of fighting terrorism means people wonder why we bother doing what we do, because nothing happened today.

[F737MAX 5,598]

4 hours ago, birdguy said:

As of today the world-wide death toll is 134,669.

In 2017 the 10 leading cause of death in the United States were:

3 hours ago, SteveFx said:

I think you are being rather unfair on Noel.  He has done lots of research and is trying to understand from his own perspective whether the sacrifice being asked is worth it.

 
It is not unfair. There is a fundemental lack of like-for-like analysis of the situation.

The lockdown of several countries to prevent the exponential increase of deaths has (thankfully) distorted the number of deaths by reducing the number expected.

It's currently anticipated that between 100,000 and 240,000 people in the U.S. will succumb to the disease.
That would put it between #3 and #6 on the top 10 list of causes of deaths in the U.S. even with movement restrictions put in place by individual states to prevent its further spread.

Even if you don't agree with the above model, just take a look at the numbers affecting New York City.
Population: 8,398,748 (2018 est.)
Confirmed cases: 237,371
Deaths: 11,586
CFR: 4.88%

That puts NYC at #6 on a worldwide list of deaths behind whole countries with populations ~7x larger.

The rate of deaths in the U.S. was tracking the average for countries poorly-prepared, such as Italy, Spain, U.K. and France until day 23 or so. Now, the number of daily deaths is growing at 2x the rate of the European countries listed.

Even when ignoring the numbers from China, it's not a good look for the U.S.
 

6 hours ago, Alan_A said:

Hope you continue to rebound, and glad to hear your friend is making it through.

Thank you Alan. I hope your colleague makes a full recovery from whatever he has. Yes, it's definitely a sign of the times when a sore throat can elicit a quarantine.
 

Edited April 16, 2020 by F737NG

[Nedo68 533]

57 minutes ago, KevinAu said:

The reason it is at 28554 today is because of the lockdowns, the social distancing and the masks. Otherwise, it would be a much higher number. The whole reason we are doing all those measures is so that people like you can say ‘what was the big deal?’

Fighting a disease is like fighting terrorism. The success of fighting terrorism means people wonder why we bother doing what we do, because nothing happened today.

KevinAu I couldn't have said it better myself!
I meet people here every day to whom I have to explain exactly that, every ***** day!
One dude(26) told me yesterday that his grandfather thinks that all this is exaggerated,
if his time to die has come, then it is so, because of a flu or corona.

I am almost outraged, we should let old people just die because they die soon anyway?
Everyone, no matter how old, deserves help from the health system, but especially the
elderly people who have worked and paid into the insurance all their lives and have
enabled us younger people to have this high standard of living.
Some people's horizon is so vastly small, i can't believe it.

[SteveFx 258]

I think you are quoting  me somewhat out of context.

I have consistently argued the opposite to Noel.

But I don’t think it’s fair to suggest that he is blatantly being word not allowed as was posted ( I know that wasn’t you), he is describing the world as he sees it and searching out new information and he is always friendly and respectful of other’s viewpoints and is pretty much following the state guidelines whilst querying why it is necessary.

When reflecting on Noel’s viewpoint let’s imagine that the Coronavirus behaved differently. 0.5% of the population (mostly elderly) became ill and quietly passed away at home with a heart attack.  Were that the case then I suspect that our governments would view that with sadness and provide advice for the elderly to isolate but that aside the world would carry on.

The problem that that we face with the actual virus is that it hospitalises a much greater number maybe 2.5% In a distressed state  and the majority of those can be saved with medical care ( e.g like Boris Johnson).

The high Rt of around 3 means that numbers double every 3-4 days if left unchecked. To achieve herd immunity we would need 2/3rds of the population to have been exposed and even the best healthcare system in the world in Germany will be overwhelmed.  
 

When that occurs all the saveable cases will die as well and the exponential growth curve means that the vast majority of cases  will occur when the healthcare system is overloaded.  Hence the overall fatality rate will be around 2% of the population which is huge. 

When shown these numbers every world leader has concluded that this cannot be allowed to happen.  It should be noted that one part of their decision may be that in the peak weeks there will be terrible scenes as people try to take loved ones to hospitals which are too full to accept them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by SteveFx