Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[Alan_A 1,650]

1 hour ago, SteveFx said:

And I agree entirely.  I have friends who own businesses who face ruin through no fault of their own.

This is a very good article in the Guardian which discuses the idea of really scaling up testing to 10s millions a day as a possible way out.  

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/political-imagination-end-lockdown-mass-testing-contact-tracing
 

 

 

Amen.  If you can test and you can trace, you can reopen.  It's asking a lot, based on where we are right now.  But that's what it'll take.

Great article  - thanks for sharing!

[HiFlyer 9,343]

2 hours ago, Alan_A said:

Amen.  If you can test and you can trace, you can reopen.  It's asking a lot, based on where we are right now.  But that's what it'll take.

Great article  - thanks for sharing!

Meanwhile: Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

[W2DR 1,859]

3 hours ago, Penzoil3 said:

Yay Birdguy! I totally agree !  We are what we are. Drum on my friend.

 Sue

Hey Sue - It's sooooo good to see you again. You need to come back more often. I miss you.......Doug

[Alan_A 1,650]

26 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Meanwhile: Heartland hotspots: A sudden rise in coronavirus cases is hitting rural states without stay-at-home orders

Well, that goes with the data on mobility that the UT epidemiologist posted today.  Suspect we'll be seeing more than this.

Today's briefing covered testing pretty thoroughly and I'm afraid turned up some holes.  It's unlikely we'll be able to test everyone - and certainly not repeatedly, which is what you'd have to do to have 100 percent monitoring. Even then there'd be gaps - say if you're testing this morning and contract an infection this afternoon.

So realistically, what you'll have to rely on is surveillance testing, where you try to locate and test a representative sample in a population.  That might give you a reasonable idea of spread and help you flag outbreaks - but it makes it more likely that there will be outbreaks, and then it's a matter of how quickly you can run them down.

I wish I could be more optimistic about how that's apt to work.  I seriously do.  You know, we choose our sides in these debates and we argue our cases, and it winds up looking like our views have solidified 100 percent on one side or the other.  That's not the case.  It's not like those of us arguing for longer lockdowns are really, really happy about the prospect of shutting the economy and throwing millions of people out of work.  This is an awful situation from any perspective.  On a mass scale it reminds me of what it was like dealing with my father's Alzherimer's, when you were continually trying to manage toward the least bad among a bunch of really bad options.

It's exhausting and it's dispiriting and I'd really like to have some quicker, happier way out.

[pete_auau 1,152]

4 hours ago, SteveFx said:

And I agree entirely.  I have friends who own businesses who face ruin through no fault of their own.

This is a very good article in the Guardian which discuses the idea of really scaling up testing to 10s millions a day as a possible way out.  

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/political-imagination-end-lockdown-mass-testing-contact-tracing
 

 

 

where  i live  in  oz  in  Australia (victoria) they  have  allotted  more money into  testing, by  they  want  to  test  every one  that  has  a  simple  cold, or  cough  or  flu  type  systems.  Yesterday  we  had   only  1  reported   case   that  had  it   and  in  Australia  there  were only  39  new  cases  in  view of  this  downturn our  Pm   said  he might lift  some  of  the  restrictions in  another  4  weeks

[kdfw__ 539]

On 4/16/2020 at 10:07 PM, dave2013 said:

The federal govt. from the beginning has granted most of the power in dealing with this pandemic to the States, with the federal govt. taking on a support and guidance role.  But I think you know that.

absolutely, the federal government said c-19 would beautifully disappear by April.

[Pastaiolo 1,686]

These are interesting reports, i don't know if you guys already saw them

https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

[Reader 2,009]

Thanks for the fascinating insights from you all. The discussion so far has been as much a study of human nature as a study of the pandemic.

Perhaps this post will survive the censor.

Edited April 18, 2020 by Reader

[SteveFx 258]

7 hours ago, Alan_A said:

On a mass scale it reminds me of what it was like dealing with my father's Alzherimer's, when you were continually trying to manage toward the least bad among a bunch of really bad options.

It's exhausting and it's dispiriting and I'd really like to have some quicker, happier way out.

Sorry to hear that Alan.  I had to deal with exactly the same thing with my father last year, and yes that’s what it’s like.  He is currently in a care home.

[SteveFx 258]

There are starting to be some population sampling studies.  These are early days and should be treated carefully.

Netherlands 3% ( antibody of blood donations)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-study/dutch-study-suggests-3-of-population-may-have-coronavirus-antibodies-idUSKCN21Y102

Austria   0.3% (  sampling using antigen)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of-austria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows

Santa Clara County 3-4% ( antibody)
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

It isn’t entirely  trivial to map these to the deaths that had occurred, as you have to consider the timings involved, e.g when in the disease progression do antibodies occur in mild patients (that would have tested) against when deaths occur.

They all suggest somewhat lower IFRs than the 0.7% which I think has been the figure used in the Imperial model.

This is an animation showing how the daily cause of deaths has changed in the US over the last month or so.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

 

[HiFlyer 9,343]

1 hour ago, SteveFx said:

There are starting to be some population sampling studies.  These are early days and should be treated carefully.

Netherlands 3% ( antibody of blood donations)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-netherlands-study/dutch-study-suggests-3-of-population-may-have-coronavirus-antibodies-idUSKCN21Y102

Austria   0.3% (  sampling using antigen)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/10/less-than-1-of-austria-infected-with-coronavirus-new-study-shows

Santa Clara County 3-4% ( antibody)
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

It isn’t entirely  trivial to map these to the deaths that had occurred, as you have to consider the timings involved, e.g when in the disease progression do antibodies occur in mild patients (that would have tested) against when deaths occur.

They all suggest somewhat lower IFRs than the 0.7% which I think has been the figure used in the Imperial model.

This is an animation showing how the daily cause of deaths has changed in the US over the last month or so.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1712761/

 

Assuming this is accurate, one wonders what that animation would have looked like had responsible people not sheltered in place.

Edited April 18, 2020 by HiFlyer

[birdguy 3,943]

Went to the market yesterday evening to buy some grapes.  Checked the paper products shelves and while not stacked full there are paper towel and toilet paper packs available.  1 package of each to a customer.  That's one thing that might be returning to normal.

Noel

[dave2013 1,123]

A recent study conducted in Santa Clara County, California estimates that 48,000 - 81,000 people have been infected in that area, which is 50-85 times the number of confirmed cases reported.  This means that the death rate drops by the same factor, which puts Covid-19's death rate somewhere between a little worse than the flu to twice as bad as the flu.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/santa-clara-coronavirus-infections-study/index.html

Of course, this is just one study, but I have read similar findings and opinions of other doctors and scientists that put the death rate somewhere between 0.2 and 1.0%.

Dave

Edited April 18, 2020 by dave2013

[HighBypass 2,339]

Not sure if you've seen this Aussie report about an extreme TP hoarder being refused a refund (I guess he wanted to price gouge and sell the 4800 rolls (150 x 32pack bundles) around the world). BRILLIANT! Serves him right! Got to love the Australians!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j0IOQ9oLpjA

 

[Alan_A 1,650]

10 hours ago, SteveFx said:

Sorry to hear that Alan.  I had to deal with exactly the same thing with my father last year, and yes that’s what it’s like.  He is currently in a care home.

Sorry to hear about yours as well.  Mine was a long time ago - my father died in 2010.  I've got bunch of notes from that period, plus a blog I kept at the time, and if work slows down, my covid project might be the book I've been meaning to write about it.  The reason I was reminded of it is that when it was going on, I really didn't experience anything conventional like grief or anger.  It was mostly an enormous management exercise with new information coming in all the time and, as I said, a range of bad options in which you were always trying to pick the least bad one.  That, plus always feeling like I was two or three steps behind - which applies to our covid situation, too.

Hope the home he's in is a good one (that was another challenge) and that you're able to hang in through it.