Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[TuFun 435]

This virus does some really strange things, is it mutating?

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients

 

[HiFlyer 9,359]

42 minutes ago, TuFun said:

This virus does some really strange things, is it mutating?

A mysterious blood-clotting complication is killing coronavirus patients

 

Apparently. I had been about to post that when a lot of posts disappeared, and I decided to back away for a while. https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-study/

[birdguy 3,943]

I just looked at that IHME chart Alan and it looks optimistic.  Or am I reading it wrong?

Noel

[Alan_A 1,650]

1 hour ago, TuFun said:

This virus does some really strange things, is it mutating?

It's probably mutating, but there are also a lot of things we don't understand about it yet.  So some of these findings are just about new things we're discovering.  For example, in a couple of cases it was found that covid patients died of pulmonary embolism - blood clots in the lungs.  It could be that's a result of the strain of trying to breathe.  Or it could be that it's caused directly by the virus and we just weren't looking for it.  It's possible that anticoagulants will become part of treatment, and it's also possible that ventilators won't turn out to be as helpful as first thought - if blood clots are the issue then jamming more oxygen into the lungs may not be effective and may not be worth the lung damage that ventilators can cause.

The early days of a new disease are like this - a lot of fast discovery and trial and error.

This article is a pretty good survey of all the things the virus apparently can do.

EDIT: Here's more about the clotting issues and other strange symptoms.

Edited April 22, 2020 by Alan_A

[Alan_A 1,650]

3 minutes ago, birdguy said:

I just looked at that IHME chart Alan and it looks optimistic.  Or am I reading it wrong?

Noel

You're reading it right, and it is optimistic.  Right now it projects that deaths top out at just over 65,000 some time in July.

The estimate has come down based on new data as infection rates slow down.  That's the curve flattening they've been talking about.

The assumption the model is using right now is that restrictions remain in place for a few more weeks and infection rates don't go up.  If restrictions come off and if there's a new wave of infections - two separate things - then that will be fed into the model and it'll come back with a higher projection. It could also go up later in the year if reports start coming in about a fall/winter second wave of infections. It's a moving target. 

On the graph, the shaded part is the predicted range, and the dotted line is the best current prediction - about two-thirds less than the maximum possible. That's better than expected and shows that the lockdown really did have an impact. What it tells hospitals - the main customer - is that if things continue this way, their capacity problems won't get worse - capacity has been strained but the system hasn't broken. 

It looks encouraging.

[Alan_A 1,650]

Re-upping another good data source - the Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker, which has very good data visualizations and clear explanations.  Updated daily.  There's now a U.S. state-by-state overview in addition to the country-by-country data.

Worth following.

[n4gix 4,947]

4 hours ago, Alan_A said:

Re-upping another good data source - the Financial Times Coronavirus Tracker, which has very good data visualizations and clear explanations.  Updated daily.

That does seem to be a good source for aggregate data world-wide. Thanks for the link.

In my county - Lake Co,, Indiana I've watched the number of infected climb from 17 confirmed cases to the current 1,292...

Every county in Indiana has at least 1 case as of today.

[188AHC 2,138]

I'm 70, which is a concerning group. I still go to the stores I have to go to but I practice social distancing and proper hygiene. 

My county has 780k population and 342 Infected with 15 deaths. I've been through much different odds but I don't practice stupid. Use common sense. 

[Nedo68 533]

15 hours ago, birdguy said:

Personally I measure the risk and act accordingly.  So far the risk is low where I live.  If it gets worse I will act differently.  I don't personally know anybody who has contracted the virus.  If friends and neighbors start getting sick I will adjust my behavior to fit the situation.

Noel

in all honor to your precautions, the tricky thing about this virus is if friends starting to get sick you are aprox 2 weeks to late for adjusting.

[HighBypass 2,339]

Alan_A (and other AVSIM members) - thanks for your patient (as in being patient, the adjective, not being A patient, the noun! Got to love the English language LOL!) explanations to my questions. I should really do more virtual flying and/or asking about the SimWorks Phantom, but I can't help it sometimes! 

[sightseer 895]

23 hours ago, birdguy said:

3 - Sacrificing lives for the economy.

Now the economy is very important.  The longer it is shut down; the longer people are out of work; the longer we let the supply chain deteriorate; the longer our educational infrastructure remains closed; the more people are going to suffer loss of investments, loss of income, poverty, depression, despair, and even death.

So are, say, a million lives (0.26% of the population) worth sacrificing to save the rest of us from a long term economic depression?  Two million (0.52% of the population)?  Is there a number we are willing to live with or do we save lives at all costs, even the cost impoverishing even more people to the deprivation of a long depression? 

Admittedly that is selfish way of looking at things, but self interest is very important to most people even if they don't openly admit it.

 

 

 

 

 

I find it odd that the people of America have survived previous recessions and depressions that have gone on for years but now, after just two months, we're supposed to believe that the people and the country are just going to vanish.

 

[birdguy 3,943]

Nedo68.  A few posts ago I included something about an oximeter as an early warning device to monitor.  If your blood-oxygen level starts to drop before you even notice shortness of breathe see a doctor and get tested.  Your blood-oxygen content should be greater than 90%.  If it starts dropping into the 80% range you MIGHT have contracted the virus.  This will show up before the other symptoms do.  Oximeters are available at most sporting goods stores or on line for little more than 20 dollars.  I take my blood pressure and oximeter reading daily.  If anything is amiss I will immediately call my doctor.

Dave.  I remember the great depression as a boy and the worrying my parents did over my dad keeping his job and after he lost it going away to find another one.  I remember the scrimping to make ends meet.  We were prosperous if we had food on the table and could afford rent.  The actor Charles Bronson recalling the depression says he wore his older sister's hand-me-down dresses to school because his family couldn't afford clothes for him.

Read up on the Great Depression.  Steinbeck's The Grapes of Wrath is a good one.  And some history books...especially photo essays of the depression. World War 2 brought us out of the depression and into a post war economic boom.  But the cost in human tragedy during that war was horrific.  There is no telling how long that depression would have lasted  had it not been for that war.  And if we let the economy fall into another depression we certainly don't want a world war to pull us out.

Of course the people and the country are not going to vanish.  But the worse it gets the greater the number of people who will suffer.  Many small businesses will not reopen.  Already a public gym in my city has announced it will not reopen.  I know a half dozen people who are not working and are living on unemployment but have no idea if their old jobs will still be there when this is over.  Many will not.  They will lose their homes.  They will deplete their savings and any investments they had will be worth less than they were before this thing started.

Personally I am pretty safe.  But my concern is not only for my friends and neighbors but especially for my children and grandchildren, some of whom have already lost their jobs.

Noel

[Murmur 3,941]

England (lockdown) vs Sweden (no lockdown):

 

Deaths _by_ COVID or deaths _with_ COVID?

[sightseer 895]

4 minutes ago, birdguy said:

 

Dave.  I remember the great depression as a boy and the worrying my parents did over my dad keeping his job and after he lost it going away to find another one.  I remember the scrimping to make ends meet.  We were prosperous if we had food on the table and could afford rent.  The actor Charles Bronson recalling the depression says he wore his older sister's hand-me-down dresses to school because his family couldn't afford clothes for him.

 

Do you want to know who it is that loses their jobs the most?  Its those with serious health conditions.  many end up homeless because our system is set up around employment regardless of whether a person is employable.  Our system is set up to make it as difficult as possible to get food and shelter in the theory that this pushes people back to work...as if people don't want to work by default.

This current epidemic i am hoping will open the eyes of many as to our so called safety net.

it does exist -- quickly for the wealthy -- but for those who have not...even what they have will be taken away.

these things frustrate me greatly because some, like you, talk about losing A job and worrying about food or rent.

so...how do you think it is when you require medication to remain concious which requires a doctor which requires money and you cant even afford rent...and you get fired anywhere from every few days to every few months depending on things that are beyond your control like the employers attitude and your health conditions.

im losing the ability to type right now but i will try to continue. its just a tremor disorder...along with a few other issues id rather not discuss.

but people realloy do need to put money in its place and care more about actual humans.

[Nedo68 533]

11 minutes ago, Murmur said:

England (lockdown) vs Sweden (no lockdown):

 

I don't think the numbers in England are going to change in any way whatever Sweden does or not.