Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[KevinAu 441]

41 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

Well, the data for the graph I used, which shows less deaths per day than yours, comes from the Sweden Public Health Agency.  The source for the graph you linked to is the European CDC.  Who is right?   Anyway, when you adjust the graph for population with data from the UK, the number of deaths is about the same, and Sweden didn't shut everything down like the UK did.

Anyway, here's another interesting graph for Sweden:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/

66% of Covid-19 deaths are persons 80 years of age and older.

88% are 70 years of age and older.

95% are 60 years of age and older.

98% are 50 years of age and older.

Only 1.5% are people under 50 years of age.

I'll bet that some of those under 60 had other health problems. 

This is a disease that targets old and sick people, and those are the good folks that we should focus on protecting instead of stupidly keeping all the schools closed down for 6 months.

Dave

 

 

Don’t forget, if you’re under 65, there’s also a 10% chance you will require icu care. That’s my primary concern. Who cares if you die. They put you to sleep and if you make it through the coma, you make. If not, theoretically you die in your sleep as you suffocate to death. You don’t have to worry about anything once you’re dead. It’s the pain and suffering and post covid disabilities and bills that kill you slowly and painfully. It’s the 1 in 10 chance of that kind pain and suffering that concerns me.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105420/covid-icu-admission-rates-us-by-age-group/

Edited May 21, 2020 by KevinAu

[jabloomf1230 2,445]

40 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

This is a disease that targets old and sick people,

Yeah, that's pretty novel for a disease that can be fatal. 

The UK is not a good comparison to Sweden. Finland, Norway and Denmark are. The UK has substantially more intercontinental air travel, which was the major vector that spread COVID-19 from one geographic region to the next. 

[HiFlyer 9,359]

[birdguy 3,943]

5 hours ago, KevinAu said:

7 hours ago, birdguy said:

 

Exactly! And those could all have stayed open if we had all started wearing masks at the beginning of this.

If you have to wear masks in public places it's rather difficult to enjoy prime rib and a baked potato with a mask on.

Noel

[birdguy 3,943]

5 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Well, the data for the graph I used, which shows less deaths per day than yours, comes from the Sweden Public Health Agency.  The source for the graph you linked to is the European CDC.  Who is right?   Anyway, when you adjust the graph for population with data from the UK, the number of deaths is about the same, and Sweden didn't shut everything down like the UK did.

Anyway, here's another interesting graph for Sweden:

Does anybody really know how many coronavirus deaths there have really been?  How many coronavirus cases there really are?  How many people are really passing it on to other people?  Or is this all the best guess du jure?  This my graph can beat up your graph doesn't inspire confidence.

Noel

[KevinAu 441]

56 minutes ago, birdguy said:

If you have to wear masks in public places it's rather difficult to enjoy prime rib and a baked potato with a mask on.

Noel

Don’t worry, the state will give you a step by step procedure.

[WingZ 547]

7 hours ago, dave2013 said:

96% of Covid-19 deaths are persons over 60 years of age.

Here's an interesting article which asks:
"Why do some COVID-19 patients infect many others, whereas most don’t spread the virus at all?"

It speaks of the "dispersion factor" rather than the usual R0, to explain, among other things, why:

 

When 61 people met for a choir practice in a church in Mount Vernon, Washington, on 10 March, everything seemed normal. For 2.5 hours the chorists sang, snacked on cookies and oranges, and sang some more. But one of them had been suffering for 3 days from what felt like a cold—and turned out to be COVID-19. In the following weeks, 53 choir members got sick, three were hospitalized, and two died

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?utm_source=newsfromscience%3Dflipboard%3Dflipboard2461116

A lot of this is just plain commonsense, if you think about it.

The virus loves the cold, and the Southern Hemisphere winter is starting. While Europe tails off into July, the likes of Brazil has just taken off:

 https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=BRA+DNK+ITA+NZL+SWE+GBR+USA

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by WingZ

[martin-w 3,235]

9 hours ago, KevinAu said:

No, Big Brother *watches* you. That is what the term big brother alludes to.

 

From the novel 1984. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Brother_(Nineteen_Eighty-Four)

[martin-w 3,235]

8 hours ago, dave2013 said:

 Anyway, when you adjust the graph for population with data from the UK, the number of deaths is about the same, and Sweden didn't shut everything down like the UK did.

 

 

Sweden becomes country with highest coronavirus death rate per capita...

 

Quote

Sweden has now overtaken the UK, Italy and Belgium to have the highest coronavirus per capita death rate in the world, throwing its decision to avoid a strict lockdown into further doubt.

 

To be honest, Sweden may not have shut EVERYTHING down, but they are complying with social distancing advice voluntarily.

I think we have to understand that these country comparisons are not going to be accurate. They are all calculated differently. It wont be until we can look at all cause mortality in a couple of years time that we will truly know how will each nation has done. So many variables at play. 

 

As I say, so many variables...

 

Quote

Sweden stands out in many ways. It has one of the lowest population densities in the world, a low level of multigenerational mixing, it borders only other countries with low population densities and it includes no international hub such as coronavirus hotspots Brussels, New York and London. It follows that when comparing absolute numbers Sweden can only be meaningfully compared to its Nordic neighbours.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by martin-w

[martin-w 3,235]

8 hours ago, dave2013 said:

 

This is a disease that targets old and sick people, and those are the good folks that we should focus on protecting instead of stupidly

 

Dave

 

 

Trouble is, if you lock down/protect old people in care homes, old people and the sick at home, and allow the virus to propagate elsewhere, you end up with enclaves you are trying to protect, surrounded by a sea of virus. I don't see that as very effective. I fear with that approach there would be multiple vectors for infection. 

[W2DR 1,860]

19 hours ago, birdguy said:

Well, you lovers of authoritarian government have won.  Our governor has ordered everyone to wear face masks in public starting Saturday or pay a 100 dollar fine.

Just one more freedom tossed down the well of oblivion.  

What's next?  Mandating my diet?  Fining me for eating red meat, butter and eggs?

Those of you who will applaud our governor's decision watch your backs.  Big Sister is smiling in New Mexico.

Noel

So why not just carry-on and pay the occasional fine? Or don't you truly believe in the "stuff" you've been posting here? Seems like a just cause given your strong feelings. But, you can't have it both ways.

[pete_auau 1,158]

13 hours ago, cmpbellsjc said:

The only one I can think of that might have gone almost as long as this one, was the topic back around 2007/2008 when PCAviator announced a new ground breaking product that was going to change simming forever. The speculation ran rampant for weeks on here, racking up tons of replies to that topic. After it was revelased the new ground breaking product was MSE, the topic continued for some time.

think this  one  going to break  every  record  since  we  still got  another  year or  so of  this

[sightseer 895]

nevermind.

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by sightseer

[W2DR 1,860]

Here is one source I find helpful:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/  . There are many others. A Google search for COVID-19 Test Statistics should give you other choices. As for the reliability of the data...it's only as good as the agency reporting it. And in the USA right there are many questions as it's now known that there have been a number of cases where the data has been manipulated to make it "look better".....Doug

Edited May 21, 2020 by W2DR
kant spel

[birdguy 3,943]

6 hours ago, KevinAu said:

Don’t worry, the state will give you a step by step procedure.

Ah, your beloved state again will teach us how to eat.  And perhaps what to eat.

Noel