Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

[scottb613 1,188]

Hi Folks,

Been MIA for a bit not really using the sim much - nice to see some familiar faces around here - might as well jump in the deep end.

Camus: "The welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants".

 

Here's a video that best describes my opinion on the matter:

 

Regards,
Scott

[HiFlyer 9,359]

4 minutes ago, scottb613 said:

Hi Folks,

Been MIA for a bit not really using the sim much - nice to see some familiar faces around here - might as well jump in the deep end.

Camus: "The welfare of humanity is always the alibi of tyrants".

 

Here's a video that best describes my opinion on the matter:

 

Regards,
Scott

It was fairly subtle when his argument crossed the line.

No, the goalposts did not move from flatten the curb to stop the spread altogether. Almost any competent medical person would probably laugh at that.

The goal remains flatten the curve (and containing outbreaks) especially in states where the trend is still upwards.

Most of the ranting after that was comprised of the standard talking points already addressed repeatedly throughout this thread.

[scottb613 1,188]

21 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

It was fairly subtle when his argument crossed the line.

No, the goalposts did not move from flatten the curb to stop the spread altogether. Almost any competent medical person would probably laugh at that.

The goal remains flatten the curve (and containing outbreaks) especially in states where the trend is still upwards.

Most of the ranting after that was comprised of the standard talking points already addressed repeatedly throughout this thread.

Hi,

I live and work in downtown Manhattan - arguably the hardest hit spot in the US - our hospitals are not overwhelmed - we sent the Navy Hospital Ship away - we dismantled temporary hospitals setup in convention centers and Central Park - we have all the medical equipment we need - we have all the beds we need - nobody is going without ventilators - nobody is going without care. Laugh if you will - a successfully flattened curve spreads health care needs over time and the peak of hospitalizations under the given health care capacity available - a measure we've successfully met.

Regards,
Scott

Edited May 21, 2020 by scottb613

[KevinAu 441]

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

So you are assuming there is no + or - in the 6foot rule.  It's absolute that the gunk can travel no further than 6 feet.  

However, if you can leave your masks off in a restaurant I'll go.  But one of my favorites has a salad bar.  Are they going to limit the salad bar to one or two persons at a time?  "I'll take your order now.  Here's your reservation for the salad bar."

Noel

I can assure you right now. There will be no salad bar. At all. You don’t want to touch those tongs after others have touched them. And no one wants to touch them after you have either. Six feet is a layer of swiss cheese. Better if further. More risk if closer. That is risk management.

[HiFlyer 9,359]

21 minutes ago, scottb613 said:

Hi,

I live and work in downtown Manhattan - arguably the hardest hit spot in the US - our hospitals are not overwhelmed - we sent the Navy Hospital Ship away - we dismantled temporary hospitals setup in convention centers and Central Park - we have all the medical equipment we need - we have all the beds we need - nobody is going without ventilators - nobody is going without care. Laugh if you will - a successfully flattened curve spreads health care needs over time and the peak of hospitalizations under the given health care capacity - a measure we've successfully met.

Regards,
Scott

I still see no goalposts moved, as Ny is indeed cautiously reopening, keeping in mind areas that are still more affected than others. In the meantime, some focus has switched to testing, so that new cases and those possibly affected by them can be efficiently tracked down and isolated as necessary.

Again, I see a government performing its due diligence to protect its citizens.

Something also to remember, is that NY does not live in a vacuum. It's working hand in hand with surrounding states to coordinate its response, so that everyone can move forward together. This also seems sane and logical, especially considering the mobility of workers and residents that could quickly turn small incidents into widespread lockdowns.

Ny has flattened the curve at great cost. I can't imagine it wants to lose that progress by precipitous actions.

I also suspect that unlike other states that are blasting full speed ahead after meeting almost none of the basic federal guidelines for reopening, we will not hear of NY possibly obfuscating numbers to delay unwelcome news.

The end of Liberty?

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-seventh-region-hits-benchmark-begin

Quote

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Governor Cuomo announced that the Capital Region has met all seven metrics required to begin phase one of the state's regional phased reopening plan starting tomorrow, joining the Western New York, Central New York, North Country, Finger Lakes, Southern Tier and Mohawk Valley Regions. The Capital Region has now identified enough contact tracers to meet the state's guidelines, and the tracers are being trained today in preparation for Western New York entering phase one, which includes construction; manufacturing and wholesale supply chain; retail for curbside pickup and drop-off or in-store pickup; and agriculture, forestry and fishing. Business guidance for phase one of the state's reopening plan is available here. A guide to the state's "NY Forward Reopening" Plan is available here. The state's regional monitoring dashboard is available here.

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by HiFlyer

[scottb613 1,188]

3 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

I still see no goalposts moved, as Ny is indeed cautiously reopening, keeping in mind areas that are still more affected than others. In the meantime, some focus has switched to testing, so that new cases and those possibly affected by them can be efficiently tracked down and isolated as necessary.

Again, I see a government performing its due diligence to protect its citizens.

Something also to remember, is that NY does not live in a vacuum. It's working hand in hand with surrounding states to coordinate its response, so that everyone can move forward together. This also seems sane and logical, especially considering the mobility of workers and residents that could quickly turn small incidents into widespread lockdowns.

Ny has flattened the curve at great cost. I can't imagine it wants to lose that progress by precipitous actions.

I also suspect that unlike other states that are blasting full speed ahead. we will not hear of them possibly manipulating numbers to hide rebounds.

Hi,

Yeah - LOL - New York is the epitome of a well managed virus response - for some reason we thought it wise to order nursing homes to take in infected COVID patients - propelling us to the number one hotspot in the country - causing countless unnecessary deaths and untold suffering. You have far more faith in government than I and the number manipulation accusations happens on BOTH sides.

Regards,

Scott

[W2DR 1,860]

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

 

 

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

So when my doctor or the nurse or the medical tech removes his mask to talk to me and I remove mine to talk to him isn't that an increased risk for both of us?

And if 6ft isn't absolute can it be 7 feet or 8 feet?  And where does that put restaurants when they put tables 6 feet apart.?  And if they increase the distance to say 8 or 10 feet  and every third booth open then how few tables can they maintain to be profitable?

Is 6ft normal conversation?  How about shouting or laughing?

Noel

Of course it's an increased risk. If they remove their masks to talk to you I'd suggest you find a new doctor/nurse/medical tech. No responsible medical professional would do this. I'm surprised you haven't asked what happens when you/they fart.

Edited May 21, 2020 by W2DR

[HiFlyer 9,359]

16 minutes ago, scottb613 said:

Hi,

Yeah - LOL - New York is the epitome of a well managed virus response - for some reason we thought it wise to order nursing homes to take in infected COVID patients

I'm at a loss to think of (off the top of my head) any states that did not, or are not having issues with nursing home deaths. I will simply point out that you neglected to mention that the order actually came from the health department, and that as new information became available Cuomo promptly reversed the nursing home order. https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-reverses-nursing-home-directive-to-take-covid-19-patients-requires-more-staff-testing/2410533/

And this is where I part company with the type of rant you posted. Though such things often contain nuggets of truth, they also tend to rely on distortions, omissions, and the lack of interest on the part of viewers to independently confirm any basis for their accusations.

Caveat Emptor!

Quote

 

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo issued a series of new rules for nursing homes in hopes of curbing the spread of the coronavirus and protecting the health and safety of the state’s most vulnerable population.

Since the start of the pandemic, more than 5,300 New Yorkers living in nursing homes have died from the virus, that's according to a tally from the Associated Press.

Hospitals cannot release patients to nursing homes in New York unless the patient tests negative for the virus, Cuomo said Sunday. The governor's announcement is a reversal of sorts from a March order by the state's health department requiring nursing home to accept recovering patients.

Previously, the health department's order stated "[nursing homes] are prohibited from requiring a hospitalized resident who is determined medically stable to be tested for COVID-19 prior to admission or readmission."

"We're just not going to send a person who is positive to a nursing home after hospital visit. Period. If there's any issue, the resident must be referred to the department of health which will find alternative care," Cuomo said Sunday.

 

 

Edited May 21, 2020 by HiFlyer

[W2DR 1,860]

4 hours ago, birdguy said:

Thanks for the kind words.

Noel

You're more than welcome..............

[JRBarrett 3,070]

4 hours ago, W2DR said:

Being a long-time DX'er I can't relate to two meters. But I can understand 6.56168 feet................

I’m extra cautious - I try to stay 28 MHz distant. (Speaking of 10 and DX, some pretty good Es openings this week!)

[W2DR 1,860]

1 minute ago, JRBarrett said:

I’m extra cautious - I try to stay 28 MHz distant. (Speaking of 10 and DX, some pretty good Es openings this week!)

I've been off the air for years now. We've lived in an antenna-restricted development since 2006. But it was a good run before we came here. 312 confirmed and 5 deadbeats who never sent a card. I'll never forget the night I worked my 100th on 80 meters. Those were the days......................

[Alan_A 1,650]

Well... this thread has certainly moved along.

I guess I've got some catching up to do.

Last things first - on the matter of public health vs. civil liberties, the discussion could use some more meat.  So I'll re-up this article and this commentary from earlier posts.

I'd just point out also - as I have in the past - that individual rights vs. the public good are always in tension.  It's pretty much impossible to find an absolute, unrestricted right.  Free speech has been restricted at various times (sometimes for arguable reasons).  The right to bear arms does not extend to a US citizen's ability to purchase an RPG launcher or an armored fighting vehicle.  Arguments happen at the border where conflicts between individual rights and collective needs are balanced.  Courts have generally sided with the state's need to restrict liberties in public health emergencies, though there are still grounds for debate.  The articles linked above outline some of that debate.

A similar set of tensions applies to other things under discussion, like restrictions or outright bans on various kinds of products.  By analogy, there have been some arguments here about the state's ability to ban cigarettes or alcohol.  In practice there are some restrictions on each.  The rationale for restrictions is, again, collective needs - for example, health problems caused by cigarettes are treated at public expense, so it can be argued that there's a public interest in such restrictions.  Custom and habit are also in force.  I haven't seen anyone argue that it should be legal to sell meth or heroin.  In other words, we readily accept bans on certain "product" categories but not others.  Marijuana is an interesting gray area in which things have changed slightly in recent years.  Again bringing it back to health issues - I once interviewed the head of addiction medicine at a major New York hospital, who said that if he could be granted one wish, it would be to travel back in time and arrange things so that marijuana could be fully legal and alcohol would be banned.  That was, he said, because alcohol had a much greater range of negative health impacts - in his view, most of the illnesses that came through the door of the hospital had alcohol as a root cause. He also thought that marijuana had advantages because it tended to make people happy and non-aggressive - again a contrast with alcohol.  Of course, we know how the last attempt to ban alcohol worked out.  Legislating social behavior often works out badly.

And about that... 

3 hours ago, n4gix said:

The Atlantic has another very interesting article posted titled:

America’s Patchwork Pandemic Is Fraying Even Further

This article is well worth the time to read as it explains how this novel virus is presenting itself in a "patchwork" fashion in so far as each state is experiencing it in distinctly different ways...

GREAT article!

It reminded me that, however much we're debating here, things are going to take their course.  We're effectively repeating the experience of 1918-1919, when each city and each jurisdiction came up with its own policies.  The result is a laboratory for historians and epidemiologists - you can look at all the different approaches and see which ones worked and which ones didn't.

In our current case - we'll know soon enough if the re-openings were a good idea or not.  Give it, say, three or four weeks to see what happens to transmission rates... and three or four months to find out what a possible second wave does to it all.

We'll all have fresh things to talk about and we'll all learn - maybe the hard way.

[JRBarrett 3,070]

1 hour ago, W2DR said:

I've been off the air for years now. We've lived in an antenna-restricted development since 2006. But it was a good run before we came here. 312 confirmed and 5 deadbeats who never sent a card. I'll never forget the night I worked my 100th on 80 meters. Those were the days......................

Ah yes, nowadays it’s hard to find any housing developments that don’t have restrictions like that.

[pete_auau 1,158]

4 hours ago, birdguy said:

So when my doctor or the nurse or the medical tech removes his mask to talk to me and I remove mine to talk to him isn't that an increased risk for both of us?

Why do you need  to take  your  mask off  for  talking is  the  question?   You  still  can  talk  with your  mask on.

Edited May 22, 2020 by pete_auau

[HiFlyer 9,359]

There are a bunch of guys i think of as "The old masters".

Every year, for about the last five years, i encounter these guys at the various lakes and stream, during the sumer trout season, and all being retired, they are pretty much constantly out every day, almost from sunrise to sunset whenever I wander by.

With their help, I went from somebody why couldn't catch a fish if you threw it at me, to somebody who actually doesn't feel totally humiliated as they reel them in one after the other while I catch a few.......

This year...... Nada.

I've not seen any of them at all, and I'm kind of worried. I hope they are all alright, out there......