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Do we Cancel Everything? You still Travelling??

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1 hour ago, scotchegg said:

That's a pretty myopic thing to say just after the death toll in your country hit 100,000, even with wide scale lockdowns.

Sure, whatever you say. 

100,000 people is 0.03% of the population, and the vast majority of that 0.03% are either people over 65 years old and/or with pre-existing health problems.  Almost that many die during an especially severe flu season.

Dave


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1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

But wasn't the guidance from all the public health agencies based on ***models***?  Wasn't the planning, preparation, and the estimated number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, based on ***models***? 

Models are just forecasting tools - in some sense, they're simulations, and they simulate different things.

The model that was used in the White House briefings - the IHME model - used data and trends about covid deaths to forecast hospital capacity (it's since been revised to take more information into account).  It was designed for and used by hospital administrators.

These models have a different purpose - they're designed to look at different mitigation strategies (like lockdowns and more limited social distancing) and project how the number of cases might grow. The variables are the number of infected people, the number of encounters they have, and the transmission rate.  They don't tell you what's going to happen - they tell you what might happen in different scenarios depending on what actions you do or don't take to regulate behavior.

Early on in the pandemic, there was a lot of attention paid to the UK's Imperial College model, which similarly looked at a range of policy options from total lockdown to no restrictions at all.  At the high end of the forecast, it projected 2 million deaths in the US.  That wasn't a prediction of what was going to happen - it was a simulation of what would happen in the most extreme scenario, where there were no steps taken to reduce transmission.  Not what will happen, but what could happen.

Each model is different, and to work with it you need to know what question it's trying to answer.

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21 minutes ago, w6kd said:

I think it's important to distinguish between use of the term as a current state, versus as a classification of disease severity.  Both are used.  As a state, you can have the disease but not show any symptoms, but if symptoms do later develop that state is retroactively reclassified as "presymptomatic" rather than "asymptomatic".  If, however, you run the complete course of the disease without detecting symptoms, that case is classified, as a measure of severity, as an "asymptomatic case", meaning that the person was infected and resolved the infection naturally without any symptoms ever being detected. 

Agreed.  The distinction may matter more from a clinical standpoint (especially if it tells you something about viral load, or allows you to project the course of the person's infection) than from a public health standpoint, where an asymptomatic and a presymptomatic patient represent pretty much the same thing - a person with no symptoms who might be contagious, but who isn't going to be detected by temperature checks or other kinds of symptom-focused screening.

It could be that at some future point, we find out that the presymptomatic patients are more contagious, and then you'd want a quick, reliable way to measure viral load.  But right now, it makes more sense to cast a wide net.

If it does turn out that higher viral load predicts symptomatic illness, then that would factor into projections and make them more accurate.

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Just now, Alan_A said:

A new publication in Science,  the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/05/27/science.abc6197

Short version: wear a mask.

All polls I have seen show the majority of Americans understand this and agree with the necessity. The ones protesting appear to be statistical outliers.

 

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2 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Sure, whatever you say. 

100,000 people is 0.03% of the population, and the vast majority of that 0.03% are either people over 65 years old and/or with pre-existing health problems.  Almost that many die during an especially severe flu season.

Dave

 

Covid deaths will be in addition to this seasons flu deaths though. We cant draw any real conclusions untill we look at all cause mortality in 12 months time.

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5 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Covid-19 is not nearly as deadly as we were all led to believe by the media and others

Absolutely correct ........ it can only kill you once, what's all the fuss about?

100,000+ of your countrymen dead probably isn't too bad if you don't know/aren't related to any of them.

Dave.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, dave belsey said:

Absolutely correct ........ it can only kill you once, what's all the fuss about?

 

Yep - or the equivalent of about 190 fully laden 747s (or roughly 460 737s) that have crashed over the past three months. But nothing to see here. Keep up the good work!

 

😐

 

Mallard

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1 hour ago, dave belsey said:

Absolutely correct ........ it can only kill you once, what's all the fuss about?

100,000+ of your countrymen dead probably isn't too bad if you don't know/aren't related to any of them.

Dave.

 

 

LOL! That reminded me I had downloaded this a while ago........

gRnj2q.jpg

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6 hours ago, dave2013 said:

Almost that many die during an especially severe flu season.

Dave

 

The following might be helpful. As you can see, stating that there are just as many deaths from flu isn't exactly accurate. 

 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2766121

 

Quote

The root of such incorrect comparisons may be a knowledge gap regarding how seasonal influenza and COVID-19 data are publicly reported. The CDC, like many similar disease control agencies around the world, presents seasonal influenza morbidity and mortality not as raw counts but as calculated estimates based on submitted International Classification of Diseases codes.2 Between 2013-2014 and 2018-2019, the reported yearly estimated influenza deaths ranged from 23 000 to 61 000.3 Over that same time period, however, the number of counted influenza deaths was between 3448 and 15 620 yearly.4 On average, the CDC estimates of deaths attributed to influenza were nearly 6 times greater than its reported counted numbers. Conversely, COVID-19 fatalities are at present being counted and reported directly, not estimated. As a result, the more valid comparison would be to compare weekly counts of COVID-19 deaths to weekly counts of seasonal influenza deaths.

 

Quote

During the week ending April 21, 2020, 15 455 COVID-19 counted deaths were reported in the US.5 The reported number of counted deaths from the previous week, ending April 14, was 14 478. By contrast, according to the CDC, counted deaths during the peak week of the influenza seasons from 2013-2014 to 2019-2020 ranged from 351 (2015-2016, week 11 of 2016) to 1626 (2017-2018, week 3 of 2018).6 The mean number of counted deaths during the peak week of influenza seasons from 2013-2020 was 752.4 (95% CI, 558.8-946.1).7 These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase (95% CI, 16.3-27.7).5,6

 

Quote

At present, the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak is one of the few situations for which complete data are available. For this outbreak, the case fatality rate as of late April 2020 was 1.8% (13 deaths out of 712 cases); age adjusted to reflect the general population, the figure would have been closer to 0.5%.1,9 A case fatality rate of 0.5% would still be 5 times the commonly cited case fatality rate of adult seasonal influenza.3,10

 

Quote

In summary, our analysis suggests that comparisons between SARS-CoV-2 mortality and seasonal influenza mortality must be made using an apples-to-apples comparison, not an apples-to-oranges comparison. Doing so better demonstrates the true threat to public health from COVID-19.

 

Edited by martin-w

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Regarding Godzilla - just like a virus the big guy's mutated over the years. In the latest movies (not anime, and not the Shin Godzilla release in 2016), he's not attacked humans directly - we are just collateral damage. Heck, we even juiced him up a bit with a nuke to the snout so he could get back into the fight and help us..

 

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6 hours ago, martin-w said:

Covid deaths will be in addition to this seasons flu deaths though. We cant draw any real conclusions untill we look at all cause mortality in 12 months time.

Silly me.  After reading all the hype about corona virus on Google News and watching the news on TV and following this thread I thought Coronavirus was the only thing people died of anymore.

Noel

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The tires are worn.  The shocks are shot.  The steering is wobbly.  But the engine still runs fine.

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7 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Silly me.  After reading all the hype about corona virus on Google News and watching the news on TV and following this thread I thought Coronavirus was the only thing people died of anymore.

Noel

Right on.

No matter how much evidence I and others discover which indicates that Covid-19 is not nearly as deadly as was being breathlessly reported by the media and health agencies just a couple months ago, there are some who instantly dismiss it out of hand.  However, we're expected to believe all of their opinions, reports, and sources.

Then there are those who virtue signal by accusing me of not caring about the poor people that have died of Covid-19.

Fortunately, a lot of people have woken up to the scare tactics and are starting to go about their normal lives again instead of staying home scared all the time like some would have us do.

People in my area have been out and about almost like they did pre-Covid-19 for several weeks now.  Many are wearing masks and distancing, which in addition to practicing good hygiene, is all you really need to do to stay safe.

Oh, but wait, some people might still catch Covid-19 and die, so how dare I suggest that it's OK to venture out!  

Deaths must be prevented at all costs, but only Covid-19 deaths, consequences be damned!

Dave


Simulator: P3Dv5.4

System Specs: Intel i7 13700K CPU, MSI Mag Z790 Tomahawk Motherboard, 32GB DDR5 6000MHz RAM, Nvidia GeForce RTX 4070 Video Card, 3x 1TB Samsung 980 Pro M.2 2280 SSDs, Windows 11 Home OS

 

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3 hours ago, martin-w said:

The following might be helpful. As you can see, stating that there are just as many deaths from flu isn't exactly accurate. 

Thank you for once again clearing things up.


We are all connected..... To each other, biologically...... To the Earth, chemically...... To the rest of the Universe atomically.
 
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I just looked up the ten leading causes of death in Roswell last year.

1 - Heart Disease

2 - Cancer

3 - Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease

4 - Diabetes

5 - Unintentional Injuries (Auto Accidents - Falling Off The Roof- etc.)

6 - Stroke

7 - Suicide

8 - Alzheimer's

9 - Chronic Liver Disease

10 - Influenza

Given Monday will be the First of June and we have a total of 2 Covid-19 deaths so far I doubt the virus will make the top ten for this year.  Murder doesn't even make the top ten.

Noel

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The tires are worn.  The shocks are shot.  The steering is wobbly.  But the engine still runs fine.

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Anxiety prescriptions are up 34% since February.

A study done by the U.S. Census Bureau has found that one third of Americans are struggling with anxiety and depression amid the Covid-19 pandemic.  The study was initiated on April 23 and surveyed app. 40,000 people. 

A whopping 47% of those aged 18 to 29 showed signs of anxiety or depression, whereas only 20% of those in their 70s showed signs.

Way to go media and others.  You've got a lot of people good and scared, depressed, and anxious now over something that kills .05% of those under 50, and 0.2% of those between 50 and 64.

Dave

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