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33 minutes ago, SteveFx said:

The FT has some excellent graphics that give more perspective than the raw numbers from who/worldcounters etc.

That's a fantastic presentation.



Alan Ampolsk

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incredible, i was talking just a few days about 8000 cases in germany with hope they dont rise more then south korea,

and we (germany) have right now almost 50,000 cases, and the total number of cases in the U.S. reached now 100,000

i really dont know where we are heading now.


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1 hour ago, Nedo68 said:

i really dont know where we are heading now.

Heading to a bad place, sorry to say.

I'm originally from New York City - born there, lived there for 47 years.  I have many friends there and do a lot of business there, so I keep in touch.  It's getting hard to take.  You can read the reports about the hospitals shortfalls.  I talked to a friend there this afternoon and he was telling me about hearing the ambulances running all the time.  Apparently the 911 emergency dispatch system is starting to break down under the strain. And they're still at least 2-3 weeks away from peak.

I wish I could find something there to be hopeful about.  My friend there did tell me about a friend of his who's 75 and asthmatic and contracted the virus.  He got through without needing to be hospitalized and he's on the mend.  So that's one thing.

Let's hope for the best, but we've got to start doing a much better job of preparing for the worst.

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Alan Ampolsk

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Is the actual death rate possibly 0.1% as mentioned by Fauci today?  That should put people at ease if true.  But I have hard time reconciling that with what is going on in N.Y.  Regular flu with 0.1% death rate certainly has never overwhelmed a cities like what is going on now.

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30 minutes ago, gregda said:

Is the actual death rate possibly 0.1% as mentioned by Fauci today? 

Do you have a source for that?  Genuine question - I'm having trouble finding a reference.  If you have a link, please share.  To my knowledge, Fauci has been estimating the case fatality rate for the US in the range of 0.5 percent to 1 percent, which would make the best case about five times worse than seasonal flu.  There's confusion about the numbers because so few people have been tested - which leads some commentators to suggest that if there are a lot of asymptomatic cases - something we don't know because of our failure to test - then the case fatality rate would be much lower than what's been estimated. In practice, this is often presented as evidence that social distancing restrictions should be relaxed. In this formulation, lots of asymptomatic cases equals lower case fatality equals a less serious threat.

What all this ignores is the rate of contagion including from asymptomatic cases - which is generally put at 2.5 cases per infection, a high figure, though lower than the current Colorado estimate of 4 percent, which is frightengly high.  In other words, lots of asymptomatic cases may serve to pull down the case fatality rate in the immediate term, but from the standpoint of contagion they're not something to celebrate. It also ignores the hospitalization rate, which is running 10 percent or more, and the very high rate of hospitalized patients who need ICU beds.  That means the worst cases are extremely bad, and there are many more of them than there are with seasonal flu. And because of the lack of ventilators, protective gear and other essential hospital equipment, this is where the healthcare system get overwhelmed.  And if it can't recover, then the fatality rate goes much higher.

You're right that the picture in New York doesn't point to a seasonal flu-like rate of infection.  And unfortunately New York is just the leading edge of what's likely to happen elsewhere.

Wish I had happier news.



Alan Ampolsk

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33 minutes ago, gregda said:

Is the actual death rate possibly 0.1% as mentioned by Fauci today?

Didn't hear Dr. Fauci today, but China, where the pandemic started and where we have the most data, had a crude death rate of approximately 4%. We refer to it as crude death rate because it is not adjusted for age, sex or race, etc.. It is the total number of known COVID-19 cases who have died divided by the total number of known cases of COVID-19, pretty simple calculation. The United States currently is reporting approximately 104,000 cases of COVID-19 so I would expect in about 2 weeks or less here in the United States we will have approximately 4,100 deaths, currently our death rate is doubling every 3 days. Everyone is hoping social distancing and other measure being taken will begin to show a slowing down of new cases, but right now that hasn't happened we are still on the exponential growth phase of the epidemiological curve.

Martin 

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A good chunk of the infected is indeed asymptomatic, usually they are not detected (not tested) nor hospitalized.
Those are the numbers which will drop the death rate.

As for the drop in infection, that will happen after 2-3 weeks, provided there is an actual lockdown and most are not going to work. And it will happen only on the first epicenter, not on every single zone at the same time (since coronavirus didn't arrive there at the same time either).

China's numbers can be trusted up to a certain point, and make sense only in the way their main epicenter was a single one.

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10 hours ago, Alan_A said:

My friend there did tell me about a friend of his who's 75 and asthmatic and contracted the virus.  He got through without needing to be hospitalized and he's on the mend.  So that's one thing.

Hi Alan, nice to hear that! We have numbers of infected & recovered
but I can't find any information or numbers about the age of the recovered, i think that means all age groups recover?


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16 hours ago, threegreen said:

I don't know what to say other than that I hope that things stay at very, very mild for you and your wife until you get rid of it and I hope your friend will recover and do so quickly.

15 hours ago, Alan_A said:

 Hang in - sincerely hoping that it stays mild for you and your wife, and that your friend makes it through.  You're in our thoughts.

Thank you both, very much appreciated.

Some good news comes from the occasional high risk catagories who beat the virus: 98-year-old in the UK, 101-year-old Italian yesterday and a Cystic Fibrosis sufferer
https://www.rsvplive.ie/news/uk-world-news/man-cystic-fibrosis-encourages-others-21762777

Still - and it's partly the reason for my post yesterday - it's important to note that the virus is indiscriminate in who it gives serious symptoms.

Stay at home, save lives

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Here`s a sneak peak into our near future... unless it's the trailer of the sequel. Wuhan begins to lift its lockdown. Let's watch and learn this time, eh? If it will have been too early there, it won`t be the time, everywhere. 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-wuhan/chinas-wuhan-where-the-coronavirus-emerged-begins-to-lift-its-lockdown-idUSKBN21F0B9

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If the leaks coming out if china are true they are still dying.

And if the Washington post is true 1.4 % of the US population has died from Covid 19 I did not know that, third largest population in the world but if it`s in the press it must be true.  


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21 minutes ago, G-RFRY said:

If the leaks coming out if china are true they are still dying.

And if the Washington post is true 1.4 % of the US population has died from Covid 19 I did not know that, third largest population in the world but if it`s in the press it must be true.  

You’re either not understanding the facts (wapo never said 1.4% of us pop died) or trying to spread false information. 


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5 minutes ago, kdfw__ said:

You’re either not understanding the facts (wapo never said 1.4% of us pop died) or trying to spread false information. 

They were asking why is it more people are dying in the US than Germany and put Germany at 0.4% and I think they messed up with the US numbers, but not getting into politics you know why.  


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2 minutes ago, kdfw__ said:

You’re either not understanding the facts (wapo never said 1.4% of us pop died) or trying to spread false information. 

Indeed  WAPO never reported that. With 104K+ cases and 1.7K casualties of COVID-19 in the US, the spreading of this  disinformation is a symptom of a whole different illness. As for the leaks coming out of China: it`s no state secret: people have been dying in China for thousands of years and they`ll foreseeably continue to die, of all kinds of causes, in the future. 

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2 hours ago, Pastaiolo said:



China's numbers can be trusted up to a certain point, and make sense only in the way their main epicenter was a single one.

Apparently there is now only one country where people don’t believe numbers coming from China. That is China. The Chinese know better than believe what their callous authorities say.


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