Going back to the concept of weekly population testing a group of academics have written to the uk government and suggested that we trial it on a city of 200k  population and if it’s successful then build up a capability to test 10M people a day and then  roll out to the whole country.

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620309363.pdf

For such a trial I would have thought that the Isle of Wight would be a great candidate.  It has a population of 140k and is not connected to the mainland other than by ferries.

This would clearly be a massive undertaking but at least its a way forward to restart normal life in a few months.

 

Back in my working days I had several offices around the USA. My home office was Alpharetta, Georgia and one of the others was in Orlando, Florida. How well I remember the Disney World Express. It's just a 54 minute flight from Atlanta to Orlando but those flights were always full of kids going to Disney World. And most of the time I'd come home sick. It's amazing how many "bugs" kids carry around with them. Keep your masks on and stay safe............Doug

18 hours ago, Alan_A said:

...there are issues with some of the serologic antibody tests because they don't easily distinguish between antibodies for ncov and antibodies for other coronaviruses  That alone would drive the positive rate way up because you'd be flagging people who had the seasonal flu...

This is why we need to make darn sure that the correct virus is isolated so that a vaccine will work...

Influenza isn't a coronavirus, though...it's an orthomyxovirus more closely related to measles, mumps, rabies, and ebola.  The other coronaviruses affecting humans include less common diseases like SARS and MERS.  I doubt we'd see many false positives from people previously infected with other coronaviruses. 

7 hours ago, W2DR said:

Back in my working days I had several offices around the USA. My home office was Alpharetta, Georgia and one of the others was in Orlando, Florida. How well I remember the Disney World Express. It's just a 54 minute flight from Atlanta to Orlando but those flights were always full of kids going to Disney World. And most of the time I'd come home sick. It's amazing how many "bugs" kids carry around with them. Keep your masks on and stay safe............Doug

Makes me wonder how airline seating is managed these days and gate congregation for those waiting to board a flight.

Noel

Good overview here of the issues involved in covid testing.

EDIT: And about detecting other viruses - there's similar genetic material in a range of viruses (not just coronaviruses - I misspoke about that) which can affect the accuracy of certain tests. 
 

Quote

 

What exactly does the molecular test tell you?

Since molecular tests detect the presence of viral genetic material, a positive result indicates an active COVID-19 infection but does not rule out bacterial infections or co-infections with other viruses. 

With every test, there’s a limit at which you can still detect a signal. A negative result with the molecular test means that the virus that causes COVID-19 was not found in the sample above the limit of detection, but it is still possible to have very low levels of the virus in the body.

 

More here.

EDIT 2: And there seem to be quality control issues as well, and there are other limits on what some of the tests are able to detect:

Quote

 

Their products vary. Some test only for a transient antibody that spikes while the body is in the throes of an active infection. An antibody that peaks about four weeks after infection and marks longer-term immunity is a separate target. There are tests that look for both antibodies; others also look for a third involved in respiratory infections.

The most reliable ones involve a laboratory technique called Elisa that can indicate the amount of antibodies a person may have. Higher levels generally mean a stronger physiological response, but it is unclear what levels are needed for immunity to the new coronavirus — or how long it would last.

 

 

Edited April 19, 20206 yr by Alan_A

2 hours ago, birdguy said:

Makes me wonder how airline seating is managed these days and gate congregation for those waiting to board a flight.

Noel

I've seen reports that they're cutting middle seats, and some are now boarding the rear seats first to limit interactions.

They're also eliminating most food service - but weren't they doing that already?

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

Makes me wonder how airline seating is managed these days and gate congregation for those waiting to board a flight.

Noel

I dunno but I'm not about to book a flight to find out...............

Concerning our debate the other day (and of course the much bigger, ongoing one) about restrictions and economic impacts, here's a report on an interesting study.

Quote

Our paper yields two main insights. First, we find that areas that were more severely affected by the 1918 Flu Pandemic saw a sharp and persistent decline in real economic activity. Second, we find that cities that implemented early and extensive NPIs [non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as bans on large gatherings] suffered no adverse economic effects over the medium term. On the contrary, cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively experienced a relative increase in real economic activity after the pandemic subsided. Altogether, our findings suggest that pandemics can have substantial economic costs, and NPIs can lead to both better economic outcomes and lower mortality rates.

You can find the full paper here.

 

Hmmmmmm.......

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/2020/04/19/9ca3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

3 hours ago, Alan_A said:

... some are now boarding the rear seats first to limit interactions.

Hallelujah.

I have watched my life trickle away while waiting for a passenger in seat 2A trying to stuff an oversize and possibly overweight carry-on bag into an already full overhead bin. Amazing too, that they are apparently oblivious of the jetway backing up into the terminal as a result.

May all surviving airlines wake up to this most obvious ploy in future.

See? Good can come from a pandemic, I will add this one to my list of Good Things, there are several.

31 minutes ago, HiFlyer said:

Hmmmmmm.......

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/2020/04/19/9ca3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

Had been wondering about that.

Welcome to the wonderful world of second-order effects!

3 hours ago, HiFlyer said:

Hmmmmmm.......

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/2020/04/19/9ca3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

Darn paywalls! Most papers have made all Covid-19 stories free from their paywall.

6 minutes ago, n4gix said:

Darn paywalls! Most papers have made all Covid-19 stories free from their paywall.

They usually give you one or two free looks a day...

If not, then due to shrinking writing staffs and freelancing, you can usually find the same story spread across multiple outlets, if any particular venue proves pesky.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/ar-BB12SZBY

Edited April 20, 20206 yr by HiFlyer

4 hours ago, n4gix said:

Darn paywalls! Most papers have made all Covid-19 stories free from their paywall.

They mostly have - this one might have been miscoded.

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