Navigraph 2020 survey results: MSFS is the winner!

[virtuali 4,419]

9 hours ago, pmb said:

The vast majority answering the survey are thinking people with a lot of experience

Exactly.

The main point that many seems to miss is this is not the *absolute* market share partition of the main simulator, it's a limited window over the part of those that responded to the Navigraph survey, which are not representative of the overall user base.

If this was a real scientific poll, we might say the sample is heavily biased towards a specific user profile, is as if you asked who's gonna win the US Elections by asking only to users living in the Silicon Valley, and then being surprised Trump got 74 millions votes, when he shouldn't have got any, according to "the poll"

Now, before someone says "yes, but this is the most interesting demographic, because they are the one who buys the addons", this might have been true in the past years ( and not entirely, since I haven't found a single developer that hasn't confirmed their X-Plane sales never reached P3D levels, even the users number were very similar, so those users are not all the same in their purchasing habits ), but the presence of the MS Marketplace changes everything. 

Because you, as users, only see this survey but we, as developers ( those that sell both on the the Marketplace and independently ), see the only thing that matters, which is *actual* sales, regardless where they are coming from, and that data is telling us the Marketshare for MSFS 2020, even considering only user that buy add-on, is already way bigger than what seems to be from that survey.

In fact, I'd say it's impressive that MSFS was able to get in the lead SO FAST, even amongst the most dedicated users, it seems nobody seems to remember how hard was for FSX to achieve the same result against FS9.

I hope nobody would doubt the clear market lead for MSFS can only increase, since right now is fighting with one hand on its back, considering the lack of certain important add-ons.

And before someone would say "but Microsoft can pull the plug from MSFS and the Marketplace at any time", I'd say while it's possible, it's very unlikely, and it would go against *everything* Microsoft did in the past years that put them back squarely at the top, that is switching from the old concept of selling you a new version of the software every X years, to selling a service with a subscription.

Because that's MSFS + Marketplace really is, if you got it on Gamepass, you are already paying your sub fees directly to Microsoft, and if you haven't, you are still paying indirectly, each time you buy an add-on on the Marketplace, because of the MS fees. So, as long as people buy add-ons from the Marketplace ( and they do ), Microsoft won't pull any plug and support for sim will continue to be sustainable, and there's a new version for the Xbox coming up, which will support all the add-ons made according to the current SDK, that's the one and only reason why you are seeing a general drop in prices: developers are betting for another bunch of new users, one they never had any means to reach before, which will likely ask for *simpler* and *cheaper* add-ons.

Edited January 13, 2021 by virtuali

[Reader 2,009]

Microsoft Flight Simulator has everything that the majority of flight simulator users want. It looks good, performs well, does not crash and gives the user the impression that they are simulating a flight above the real world.

That is what the majority want from a simulator and the same majority does not visit forums such as these to comment on the quality or otherwise of addons, because they are either happy with them, or they do not use them. 

There are then numerous niches, those who demand helicopters, those who demand the "study level", those who demand as real as it gets weather conditions, exactly matching what is outside their front doors and so on.

Members of these niches do tend to visit forums and complain that their various wishes are not being fulfilled, or to vilify those to whom these simulators are just games. They may or may not participate in a survey such as this because it is beneath them, as already posted by some of them, both before and after the survey. The silent majority arguably do not even know of the survey's existence.

The survey results should be viewed in that context and as Umberto just wrote, the only accurate guide for developers is their sales.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2021 by Reader

[ARV187 0]

7 hours ago, virtuali said:

developers are betting for another bunch of new users, one they never had any means to reach before, which will likely ask for *simpler* and *cheaper* add-ons.

Does that mean that developers are going to abandon the most purist users, not being able to find the same “complexity and product quality” for fs2020?

[EvidencePlz 276]

2 hours ago, ARV187 said:

Does that mean that developers are going to abandon the most purist users, not being able to find the same “complexity and product quality” for fs2020?

If that was to be the case, then top study-level developers such as PMDG, FSLabs, Majestic, A2A, Leonardo, Aerosoft, SimCoders, JRollon etc would have announced their departure rather than involvement and engagement with the Microsoft Flight Simulator platform long time ago.

Microsoft and all the top level developers mentioned above never ever said they were going to abandon the study level audience. Matter of fact they said the exact opposite, that MSFS will be a simulator for simmers first and foremost, yet accessible and user-friendly to beginners.

Edited January 13, 2021 by EvidencePlz

[Ricardo41 5,936]

The numbers can be read in any number of ways, but the fact is that in 6 months MSFS 2020 has eliminated any commercial potential that the other sims had. I suspect that within a year or so P3D will be a niche simulator.

What we are probably seeing is a slow hemorrhaging away from the other sims, as Asobo improves the base version and as more and more mods and freeware scenery is released. 

The release of the first "study level" tube liner will be the final naill in the coffin. 

Edited January 14, 2021 by Ricardo41

[DEHowie 269]

30 minutes ago, Ricardo41 said:

The numbers can be read in any number of ways, but the fact is that in 6 months MSFS 2020 has eliminated any commercial potential that the other sims had. I suspect that within a year or so P3D will be a niche simulator.

What we are probably seeing is a slow hemorrhaging away from the other sims, as Asobo improves the base version and as more and more mods and freeware scenery is released. 

The release of the first "study level" tube liner will be the final naill in the coffin. 

I would say the complete reverse.

Given the first "good" airliner is well over a year away for the many in the sim world this forces them back to xplane 11 and P3D.

Does it really matter ho great Venice looks if the aircraft are simply terrible?

When msfs first launched every streamer except a limited few where in msfs land, 24 hours a day gotta love that Super Cub.

Go look around today.

The gamer types are still in msfs but those interested in an aviation experience are all back in P3D and Xp11.

You can only entertain yourself with poorly modelled aircraft with a flight model thats more like FSx for so long no matter how nice the scenery.

As soon as the latest CJ4 mod drops people clamber for something, anything thats closer to a properly simulated aircraft.

Its an absolute indictment on Asobo that the community has been left to prop up msfs..in fact its pretty disgusting and the praise should be complaint mail.

Very well done on the CJ4 mod and it almost makes MSFS worth spending time with.

With P3D rapidly being modded with a complete new lighting model and 3D world are you going to sit idly by doing orbits over your house in a super cub while we have superb aircraft in P3D that anyone in msfs would die for?

The FBW mod is years away from even getting close to an A320. SOrry to rain on anyones parade but having flown the real one for 16 years if they think in a year they will even have the FBW system sorted they are fooling themselves.

When Carenado are held up as a premier aircraft in a sim you know there is something very very wrong and people are just dying for an aircraft of some quality to come along. Unfortunately thats not happening anytime soon.

MS and Asobo are not co-operating with devs and delays will blow out and out and out until either the devs walk away or MS caves on its locked up sim not allowing devs in for stability purposes.

New versions of P3D and Xp in the far superior DX12 allowing far better performance means the door is open for these two to very much remain the preferred choice for simmers as they develop while DX11 like a bowling ball around the ankles will stop and hold msfs back.

If you think this isnt a major issue just look right now at the barely flyable 787. And sorry i compare that to the one i fly for a living or maybe even the Quality Wings even it is lacking in many areas. It struggles on frames with reasonable settings and it simulates basically nothing. It models no 787 systems correctly, the FMC is terrible, displays are incorrect using basic fonts etc. By the time any dev tries to port in a high intensity sim like the PMDG 737 it will bring msfs crashing to its knees stuttering and staggering restricted by DX11 and its poor optimization.

P3D and Xplane will not be going anywhere and anyone thinking the future is certain with MSFS had better reasses and Asobo only have themselves to blame.

[honanhal 1,420]

43 minutes ago, DEHowie said:

With P3D rapidly being modded with a complete new lighting model and 3D world

Genuine question: did I miss something?

[snglecoil 1,828]

2 hours ago, DEHowie said:

When Carenado are held up as a premier aircraft in a sim you know there is something very very wrong

Ouch 🤣

[threexgreen 3,135]

2 hours ago, DEHowie said:

MS and Asobo are not co-operating with devs and delays will blow out and out and out until either the devs walk away or MS caves on its locked up sim not allowing devs in for stability purposes.

I'm sure you can make more accurate judgements on aircraft fidelity than the average enthusiast being a RW airliner pilot and I always welcome 'more proficient' people to give their opinion on flight simulation so that others not in the profession have a better benchmark. But what I quoted here is everything from making claims about things none of us can know to doom-mongering without reason.

None of us are behind the curtain and we can only see what's put on the outside and that certainly is the complete opposite of what you said. They have a lot of 3rd parties being involved with the simulator itself and also include developers by working together with them on a daily basis going as far as including them directly in SDK development and they co-operate with freeware devs like those developing the mods as well. Several 'high profile' developers have repeatedly said that work together with Asobo is daily and going well.

The rest is just the usual doom-mongering predicting the inevitable demise of the simulator based on nothing but speculation and guesses, e. g. how certain developers' planes are going to work in the sim while they are not even anywhere near finished and many still in the early stages about which the public knows absolutely nothing.

I think we're all better off taking what's there and waiting to see what happens next instead of constantly telling each other what simulator will fail or flourish and who's to blame for it. I would think the fact that MSFS is even a thing shows that anything can happen.

Edited January 14, 2021 by threegreen

[ryanbatc 12,819]

You can have all the in depth aircraft, but you're still flying them in decades old terrain and scenery.  Ugh I just can't do it anymore.  I can't go back to P3D, much less XP11.  As a real world pilot, the atmosphere (even with the weird "live" weather), is absolutely believable for me.  If I only flew airliners and loved pressing buttons, and rarely glanced at the scenery...sure...I can see why people would stay with those ancient sims.

Today, in the now, I can hop in MSFS, fly to a destination, and do the same flight later in the real aircraft.  I can brief myself on potential issues like obstructions or terrain in the sim.  It's incredible!

I will admit you could probably do that in a few areas in p3d with add-on scenery, but my point is you could do that anywhere in the world in MSFS.

Edited January 14, 2021 by ryanbatcund

[pmb 5,137]

3 hours ago, DEHowie said:

The gamer types are still in msfs but those interested in an aviation experience are all back in P3D and Xp11.

This is a myth which, despite being repeated, I can't confirm based on my observation of fora. Look around in the MSFS fora and you'll see plenty of highly experienced (much higher than me) former Prepar3D/XP pilots now on MSFS. Several of them help shaping the simulator by constructive criticism and newcomers to gain ground.

There are certainly people going backwards to Prepar3d as well as people going forwards toward MSFS. From my observation, I wouldn't even dare to say which group is bigger. And we just had a representative survery, no need to make another one by amateurs.

However, besides that, I observe an influx of people having given up flight simulation as it became stagnant over the years. Plus, add the newcomers. You may downgrade them as "gamers" but at least part of them represent the future for our hobby, some of them to become virtual - and perhaps a few even real - captains later. The net effect of MSFS is a revitalization of the scene, and this is something I was hoping for.

Kind regards, Michael

[omarsmak30 4,067]

3 hours ago, DEHowie said:

The FBW mod is years away from even getting close to an A320. SOrry to rain on anyones parade but having flown the real one for 16 years if they think in a year they will even have the FBW system sorted they are fooling themselves.

ouch that is negative statement. These folks actually have done transmodus job, you can take a closer look at the changelog. And for your info, the custom flybywire is already available, the custom AP is already half ready, there is heavy work to re-implement all the systems in rust/C++, heavy work to rewrite the flightplan (using WT flightplan) .. etc, and that for how long? 5months :D. Give them 1 year and see what could happen . Of course, is no where the proper depths are there but I bet these awesome folks will get there sooner or later. 

 

3 hours ago, DEHowie said:

New versions of P3D and Xp in the far superior DX12 allowing far better performance means the door is open for these two to very much remain the preferred choice for simmers as they develop while DX11 like a bowling ball around the ankles will stop and hold msfs back.

Holding MSFS back how? MSFS performance is way better what you'd get in P3D v5 (at least on my machine). DX12 is coming this summer to MSFS, however it won't bring a lot of performance optimisations but more enabling to have more graphic features like raytracing ... etc

 

3 hours ago, DEHowie said:

With P3D rapidly being modded with a complete new lighting model and 3D world are you going to sit idly by doing orbits over your house in a super cub while we have superb aircraft in P3D that anyone in msfs would die for?

So you are telling a graphic engine dated back to 2006 (maybe even 2004) will overtake a sim with modern gaming engine (Forzatech) that is being used in Forza games? 😄 

[spitzer45 99]

Xp 11 is a very good simulation with its super flight dynamics. It gives the feel you fly an aircraft. But, p3d without those famous addons like pmdg, fslabs, active sky etc. is very weak about flight dynamics and default cartoonish graphics.

Msfs 2020 is a next gen and in a few years will be a very good sim. 

[ca_metal 2,015]

13 minutes ago, omarsmak30 said:

So you are telling a graphic engine dated back to 2006 (maybe even 2004) will overtake a sim with modern gaming engine (Forzatech) that is being used in Forza games? 😄 

I would like to understand that too. Because while I can agree x-plane and P3D have much better airlines (the expensive payware add-ons of course), scenery wise MSFS is in a completely different level. And there’s no sign the other sims can/will compete on that matter. 

Laminar’s approach to the scenery is their plausible World, they don’t seek for accuracy, but something that would look like. 70% of the world looks like a suburb on the US. The other 30% looks like Germany. Their lighting system isn’t also good.

P3D, well, it doesn’t seem to be LM’s priority to have a good scenery or good lighting effects, they seek performance and stability. 

[Tuskin38 6,459]

40 minutes ago, ca_metal said:

they seek performance and stability. 

Have you seen P3Dv5? 😄