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Future of X-plane

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1 hour ago, BigDee said:

If there are really only 5 developers in X-Plane

Austin said they employed a studio in Eastern Europe to develop their next gen art assets, which definately conjours images of cyberpunk 2077 and medium

 

Edited by mSparks
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I think Austin has the money He is just prone to spend it more wisely, laminar have a road map, they know where the money need to go.

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23 minutes ago, mjrhealth said:

I think Austin has the money He is just prone to spend it more wisely, laminar have a road map, they know where the money need to go.

They had the money but it was spent in all the wrong places (side projects, making documentaries, Tesla's etc). They just never imagined MSFS would come back like this. 

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3 hours ago, Greazer said:

They had the money but it was spent in all the wrong places (side projects, making documentaries, Tesla's etc). They just never imagined MSFS would come back like this. 

I didn't know you had access to Austin's and LR's private business and banking accounts, as well as their development roadmap!!??  I'm starting to think you might be Austin's personal accountant/lawyer.   
But let's just put it another way, with information that is already out there.  Austin has said he sold over 100 000 units of X-Plane 11.  At $60.  That's a gross income of $6 million.  He bought a Tesla for himself, and his wife (Not that that is any of your business, but since he posted photos of them, I'll mention it) for what could easily be classified as "pocket change" compared to his net income.  X-Plane mobile is generating more millions.  XAvion, even more millions.  There's a difference between spending money on personal items and investing money into side projects to make more money.  Did you know that X-Plane mobile financed X-Plane 10?

Stop trolling, Greazer.  You're always going to be met with rebuttals.

Edited by GoranM
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1 hour ago, GoranM said:

I didn't know you had access to Austin's and LR's private business and banking accounts, as well as their development roadmap!!??  I'm starting to think you might be Austin's personal accountant/lawyer.   
But let's just put it another way, with information that is already out there.  Austin has said he sold over 100 000 units of X-Plane 11.  At $60.  That's a gross income of $6 million.  He bought a Tesla for himself, and his wife (Not that that is any of your business, but since he posted photos of them, I'll mention it) for what could easily be classified as "pocket change" compared to his net income.  X-Plane mobile is generating more millions.  XAvion, even more millions.  There's a difference between spending money on personal items and investing money into side projects to make more money.  Did you know that X-Plane mobile financed X-Plane 10?

Stop trolling, Greazer.  You're always going to be met with rebuttals.

Not a rebutal, have you ever being fishing, when the fish stop biting teh fishermen go home.

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2 hours ago, GoranM said:

Austin has said he sold over 100 000 units of X-Plane 11.

That seems very low to me? Especially with regard to the number of third party developers. Would they bother with such a small user base?  The forecast for MS2020 sales is 3.5 million and rising.

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3 minutes ago, jarmstro said:

The forecast for MS2020 sales is 3.5 million and rising.

That seems very low to me? Candy Crush Saga was downloaded 10 million times just in one month (December 2012, according Wikipedia).

MS2020 must be a much worse piece of software than Candy Crush Saga?

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2 hours ago, jarmstro said:

That seems very low to me? Especially with regard to the number of third party developers. Would they bother with such a small user base?  The forecast for MS2020 sales is 3.5 million and rising.

Let's break it down, and elaborate.  First of all, note that I said "Austin has said he sold OVER 100 000 units of X-Plane".  And that was some time in 2019 that he said that.  2 years after X-Plane 11 came out.  With a staff of about 14 (give or take a few), I would say that's a highly profitable return for the figure THEN.  

Let's consider add on developers.  I remember the Level D 767 sold 35 000 units after several years for FS9 AND FSX.  That was considered the best add on of its time.  Yet, it's less than 33% of X-Plane 11's total sales.

LR has been in business for, I'm pretty sure about this, as long as Microsoft has been in business.  Remember, the origins of MSFS was rooted in Apple, and Microsoft took it up.  Austin didn't like what was out there, so he made his own flight simulator.

Let's take MSFS figures of their most recent release compared to, for example, 150 000 units of X-Plane.  Asobo is a team of, if I recall, 200+ developers.  Let's go on the reasonable side, and assume that each developer makes $100 000/year.  Multiply that by (it's over 200, so...) 250.  That's $25 million Microsoft needs to make, JUST to pay Asobo.  Asobo have been working on this for 6-7 years (please correct me if I'm wrong).  So based on the figure of 6-7 years, up until release day (not including future support and enhancements), Microsoft would need to sell 250 000 copies of MSFS, per year, for 6-7 years, just to pay the Asobo staff for the work they did over the last 6 years. Let's not forget overheads.  Let's not forget the merch and dollars that Microsoft sent to streamers and youtubers like iJustine.  Jayz2cents.  Dr Disrespect.  Linus Tech Tips.  Those people are not cheap.  Let's take into account that Microsoft flew youtubers and streamers out to Seattle to test out MSFS.  

So, your figure of 3.5 million as a forecast, is quite ambitious, and extremely low.  Especially considering their sales have tapered off quite drastically since this.  So at least they have the first 4 years of development covered.  2-3 left, plus any work Asobo have done, and are going to do for MSFS AFTER last years release of MSFS.

Austin and LR have a proven business model, that has consistently made a profit over the last few decades, WITHOUT advertising.  Microsoft has pulled the plug on the flight sim franchise TWICE.  

Any savvy business man would look at those 2 models and consider the MSFS franchise risky at best.  

 

Edited by GoranM
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1 hour ago, Janov said:

Candy Crush Saga was downloaded 10 million times just in one month

I'm in the wrong business!!!

Actually, you would think at $1/mth, at least 5 million copies of MSFS would have been downloaded.  Very surprised by the (low) 3.5 million forecast.

Edited by GoranM
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14 minutes ago, GoranM said:

Let's break it down, and elaborate.  First of all, note that I said "Austin has said he sold OVER 100 000 units of X-Plane".  And that was some time in 2019 that he said that.  2 years after X-Plane 11 came out.  With a staff of about 14 (give or take a few), I would say that's a highly profitable return for the figure THEN.  

Let's consider add on developers.  I remember the Level D 767 sold 35 000 units after several years for FS9 AND FSX.  That was considered the best add on of its time.  Yet, it's less than 33% of X-Plane 11's total sales.

LR has been in business for, I'm pretty sure about this, as long as Microsoft has been in business.  Remember, the origins of MSFS was rooted in Apple, and Microsoft took it up.  Austin didn't like what was out there, so he made his own flight simulator.

Let's take MSFS figures of their most recent release compared to, for example, 150 000 units of X-Plane.  Asobo is a team of, if I recall, 200+ developers.  Let's go on the reasonable side, and assume that each developer makes $100 000/year.  Multiply that by (it's over 200, so...) 250.  That's $25 million PER YEAR FOR 6-7 YEARS Microsoft needs to make, JUST to pay Asobo.  Asobo have been working on this for 6-7 years (please correct me if I'm wrong).  So based on the figure of 6-7 years, up until release day (not including future support and enhancements), Microsoft would need to sell 250 000 copies of MSFS, per year, for 6-7 years, just to pay the Asobo staff for the work they did over the last 6 years. Let's not forget overheads.  Let's not forget the merch and dollars that Microsoft sent to streamers and youtubers like iJustine.  Jayz2cents.  Dr Disrespect.  Linus Tech Tips.  Those people are not cheap.  Let's take into account that Microsoft flew youtubers and streamers out to Seattle to test out MSFS.  

So, your figure of 3.5 million as a forecast, is quite ambitious, and extremely low.  Especially considering their sales have tapered off quite drastically since this.  So at least they have the first 4 years of development covered.  2-3 left, plus any work Asobo have done, and are going to do for MSFS AFTER last years release of MSFS.

Austin and LR have a proven business model, that has consistently made a profit over the last few decades, WITHOUT advertising.  Microsoft has pulled the plug on the flight sim franchise TWICE.  

Any savvy business man would look at those 2 models and consider the MSFS franchise risky at best.  

I have always said, than when the investors say, "where is our money", things might change it did before, MS are in it for the money and no less..

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Just now, mjrhealth said:

I have always said, than when the investors say, "where is our money", things might change it did before, MS are in it for the money and no less..

That's why I laugh my a** off when I see people say, "This is Microsoft Flight Sim.  Microsoft have BILLIONS to throw at this project.  X-Plane is dead!! BAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!"
They actually believe that Microsoft will pour endless amounts of money into the project.  
SMH-LMAO

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Whether I buy XP12 or not will depend on whether the considerable sums I have spent on addons for XP11 will work in it. If they won't then I'm not buying it,

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9 hours ago, mSparks said:

Austin said they employed a studio in Eastern Europe to develop their next gen art assets, which definately conjours images of cyberpunk 2077 and medium.

That`s great to hear. Thanks to MSFS we will have to wait a longer time for anouncements and screenshots. Great :(.

Considering X-Plane 11 sells, even 100 000 is a high number for a serious simulator. There are also many videos in YouTube that are close to 1 million views. 

Austin is a good bussiness man, his X-Avion application is a great tool and both, X-Plane for tablets and X-Avion produce income, that is likely quite relevant for Laminar. 

Up until now there were many frequent releases of X-Planes and I really wish it will continue this way. there are some examples, like GTA V, which I don`t like anyway. The game was released in 2013, 9 years have passed since then, no anouncement of a new version. It`s not that I do care about about a new version, but one can clearly see, some people are tending to lay off their work, when there is enough money. Or take another example, LFS, it is a sim game that was supported by Williams BMW F1, Intel and VW. I used to play the sim in 2003-2005. Just take a look at this. The release of the new physics was sheduled in 2010, now we have 2021.

 

X-Plane is clearly not built for profilt, LR and Austin are trying to find different ways for their income, with real solutions that might help people, like X-Avion. MSFS is primarily built for masses. MSFS is a complete fail for me. 

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1 minute ago, BigDee said:

MSFS is primarily built for masses. MSFS is a complete fail for me. 

Why? Just because it's built for masses?


PC specs: i5-12400F, RTX 3070 Ti and 32 GB of RAM.

Simulators I'm using: X-Plane 12, Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) and FlightGear.

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Reading all of the previous posts, the exact thing I'm afraid of is happening. Posts are quickly turning into "MSFS hasn't achieved anything, it looks worse than X-Plane, it flies worse than FSX, X-Plane is already so much better, it doesn't need any improvement". That exact mindset causes all of the issues with X-Plane to be dismissed, while Laminar Research would definitely appreciate proper feedback, preferably not from gatekeepers. Thankfully Laminar Research doesn't follow that mindset, otherwise X-Plane wouldn't improve at all.

Also, being annoyed so much by people calling X-Plane dead because of MSFS and at the same time desperately hoping MSFS to fail is what's called double standard, but whatever.

Edited by BiologicalNanobot
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PC specs: i5-12400F, RTX 3070 Ti and 32 GB of RAM.

Simulators I'm using: X-Plane 12, Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) and FlightGear.

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