Mars not as hellish as you think.

[martin-w 3,235]

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Abundant and accessible water below the Martian surface is still pure conjecture.  The atmosphere is minimal, as well as is oxygen, but solar radiation is sure abundant. 

 

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Two years ago, planetary scientists reported the discovery of a large saltwater lake under the ice at Mars’s south pole, a finding that was met with excitement and some scepticism. Now, researchers have confirmed the presence of that lake — and found three more.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02751-1

Conjecture yes, but the evidence is getting stronger.

 

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Prior research suggested that most of Mars’s water escaped into space as its atmosphere was stripped away by the sun’s radiation. But this new study, published today in the journal Science and virtually presented at this year’s Lunar and Planetary Science Conference, concludes that Mars’s water experienced both an atmospheric exodus and a geologic entrapment.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/where-did-mars-liquid-water-go-new-theory-holds-fresh-clues

 

Oxygen  isn't an issue. In fact Perseverance has just manufactured oxygen from the Martian atmosphere.

Radiation is said to be no greater than experienced by the crew of the ISS. Habitats should provide enough protection.

 

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The are also severe dust storms covering millions of square miles from time to time, and are not predictable. 

 

Yep, a properly designed habitat should offer enough protection. Lava tubes are an option too. 

 

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Until then:  Who wants to take a two to three year round-trip there?

 

Scientists, engineers, explorers... and the people that have done such risky things throughout human history and given us much of what we have today. We are explores, its what we do. 

 

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most people who reach the peak of Mt. Everest only spend less than 15 minutes up there.

 

Not surprised, when they summit they don't even have tents. Our Mars visitors will have 3D printed, comfortable houses. Not to mention the option of Lava Tubes to build a nice habitat in. 

[Pascal_LSGC 298]

48 minutes ago, martin-w said:

Radiation is said to be no greater than experienced by the crew of the ISS. Habitats should provide enough protection.

Who said that? This article says otherwise:

https://phys.org/news/2016-11-bad-mars.html

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Over the course of about 18 months, the Mars Odyssey probe detected ongoing radiation levels which are 2.5 times higher than what astronauts experience on the International Space Station – 22 millirads per day, which works out to 8000 millirads (8 rads) per year. The spacecraft also detected 2 solar proton events, where radiation levels peaked at about 2,000 millirads in a day, and a few other events that got up to about 100 millirads.

Pascal

[martin-w 3,235]

1 hour ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

Who said that? This article says otherwise:

 

The Angry Astronaut Channel. Think he was talking about inside the habitat, The 3D printed habitat. 

I still think the lava tubes are a great idea for a base to be honest. Combined with the new NASA Kilopower reactor for power. Solar panels as well of course. 

https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/kilopower

 

Edited May 12, 2021 by martin-w

[birdguy 3,943]

23 hours ago, Rob_Ainscough said:

It's the journey, not the destination

That only counts for first class rail travel.

Noel

[birdguy 3,943]

22 hours ago, dmwalker said:

Sorry to be so negative but he seems a bit unrealistic about children enjoying living on Mars and seeing  the geological features

I agree.   How many different Grand Canyons can you enjoy?  My son lived in Flagstaff for years and got sick of going to the Grand Canyon when friends and relatives arrived wanted him to take them there.

Would yu like to live by the seashore all your life without going somewhere else?  Or even the same city?

Travel and tourism is a prime recreation for so many of us.  Who is going to open a travel agency on Mars?

On the other hand children born and raised in the same unchanging environment might not know the difference.  There's always books to read a chess to play.

Noel

[birdguy 3,943]

10 hours ago, martin-w said:

I don't think children being born there will happen for quite a while.

They had better have some super birth control programs and pills in the interim.

Noel

[dmwalker 603]

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

There's always books to read a chess to play.

Since there will presumably be a connection to Earth Internet, I imagine they will form online friendships with Earth children out of curiosity as well as Martian children.

Also, the video “The First 10,000 Days on Mars” suggested that the first astronaut settlers would include “military personnel with scientific backgrounds”. I wonder if the military will be in charge of the colony.

[martin-w 3,235]

11 hours ago, dmwalker said:

Since there will presumably be a connection to Earth Internet, I imagine they will form online friendships with Earth children out of curiosity as well as Martian children.

Also, the video “The First 10,000 Days on Mars” suggested that the first astronaut settlers would include “military personnel with scientific backgrounds”. I wonder if the military will be in charge of the colony.

 

The military are bound to have a presence on the Moon or Mars. I suspect they would want their own base though.

[Pascal_LSGC 298]

I finally watched the video and find it very interesting, it gives a nice overview of all the technologies and ideas that are being developed.

And I think it is probably possible to live on Mars.

But I have a big problem with the premise: being a multi-planetary specie. I think we should study that question more seriously before pretending we can be one.

Having a colony on Mars or another planet does not protect us from extinction. At all. Even a big colony with millions of people.

Here's why. Living on Mars requires a high level of technology. That technology is dependant on ultra-specialised knowledge of hundreds of thousands of scientists, and on the technical and industrial infrastructure present all over the earth. Not even speaking about the material ressources.

Look at your smartphone or your computer: not one human on earth has the complete knowledge of all the science and technical processes that are involved to make it possible.

Which brings me to my main argument:

A colony on Mars will never be completely independent technology-wise. So, you destroy Mother-Earth - or even more likely: our civilization collapses - and it's only a question of years until our colonies in the solar system slowly die, deprived of any support from their home planet, lonely on a planet they where not evolved for.

I truly believe there is no escape from the fact that we must find ways to solidify our survival on Earth. That's not only our cradle, that's our home, and for a very, very long time. Any suggestion that we can escape that fact is ultimately dangerous and irresponsible.

 

Pascal

 

13 hours ago, martin-w said:

The Angry Astronaut Channel. Think he was talking about inside the habitat, The 3D printed habitat. 

I still think the lava tubes are a great idea for a base to be honest. Combined with the new NASA Kilopower reactor for power. Solar panels as well of course. 

https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/kilopower

 

 

[martin-w 3,235]

59 minutes ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

But I have a big problem with the premise: being a multi-planetary specie. I think we should study that question more seriously before pretending we can be one.

 

Well, it has been something that has been studied extensively for many decades. Zubrin and the Mars society have been doing so as long as I can remember. NASA have spent plenty of time studying the concept too. I certainly think we now have the capability to do so. And we certainly have more technological capability to go to Mars now, than we did the Moon in the 60's. The long term questions that remain are biological and psychological in my opinion. But they are surmountable. And it is happening of course, NASA are committed and SpaceX is 100% committed. 

 

59 minutes ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

A colony on Mars will never be completely independent technology-wise. So, you destroy Mother-Earth - or even more likely: our civilization collapses - and it's only a question of years until our colonies in the solar system slowly die, deprived of any support from their home planet, lonely on a planet they where not evolved for.

 

No that's not correct. The aim is to head toward a FULLY sustainable colony. Everything we do on Earth can be done on Mars or the Moon in a technological sense. All that's required is energy. 

 

59 minutes ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

I truly believe there is no escape from the fact that we must find ways to solidify our survival on Earth. That's not only our cradle, that's our home, and for a very, very long time. Any suggestion that we can escape that fact is ultimately dangerous and irresponsible.

 

Well yes, we absolutely should do that, and we are, not with enough gusto but we are. That doesn't protect us from a nuclear war, a planet killing asteroid, a super volcano, a mega sized CME or any one of many existential crisis's. The point, also made in the video, is that if we don't become a self sustaining multiplanetary species we WILL become extinct. 

Edited May 13, 2021 by martin-w

[Pascal_LSGC 298]

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

 

Well, it has been something that has been studied extensively for many decades. Zubrin and the Mars society have been doing so as long as I can remember. NASA have spent plenty of time studying the concept too. I certainly think we now have the capability to do so. And we certainly have more technological capability to go to Mars now, than we did the Moon in the 60's. The long term questions that remain are biological and psychological in my opinion. But they are surmountable. And it is happening of course, NASA are committed and SpaceX is 100% committed. 

No. These people has studied the possibility to colonize Mars. My main point was to explain that this is not equivalent to being a multi-planetary specie, in the sense of two or more non-interdependant civilizations.

 

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

Everything we do on Earth can be done on Mars or the Moon in a technological sense. All that's required is energy.

And it was my point to try to explain that is absolutely not the case. In fact, I hope not to hurt you, but I find this point of view very naive. It takes a whole civilization and a great diversity of materials only available on earth to make an advanced technological object.

But all I ask is that we study this technological dependency chain very seriously. And those who make the "multi-planetary" claim never do that.

 

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

Well yes, we absolutely should do that, and we are, not with enough gusto but we are. That doesn't protect us from a nuclear war, a planet killing asteroid, a super volcano, a mega sized CME or any one of many existential crisis's. The point, also made in the video, is that if we don't become a self sustaining multiplanetary species we WILL become extinct. 

There are different time scales here. First, we can become extinct (or at least our civilization collapse) because of our own doing. That can happen in a time scale of decades, or maybe centuries. And yes, sadly, the risk seems very high. But the probability is not calculable. To calculate a probability you must have several samples of the event. Which we don't have. That's our first time.

Then, there are the scales of catastrophic asteroids or cosmic events. It happens every few million years. At worst, a risk still exists in the few thousands years to come. We don't even know what humanity could look like so far in the future, and what we will be able to do or not. Those are, with supernovae, the only kind of event that are are certain to happen, but we can't project that far to calculate a probability of survival.

So, in short. you have no scientific basis to affirm we will become extinct. But at least, the shortest, and immediately dangerous time scale is in our hands. We can try to do something. Of course, that doesn't say that we will. But the moment we start to look somewhere else to solve our problems is the moment we escape our responsibilities.

 

 

[Pascal_LSGC 298]

I'd like to add: don't get me wrong, I'm very passionate about discoveries on Mars, and a future human habitat. Mostly for scientific reasons. And yes, science could help us survive too. I'd even say it is absolutely necessary to know our solar system better.

[martin-w 3,235]

57 minutes ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

No. These people has studied the possibility to colonize Mars. My main point was to explain that this is not equivalent to being a multi-planetary specie, in the sense of two or more non-interdependant civilizations.

 

Well yes, but we have studied this. NASA have conducted a lot of research in regard to being a self sustaining colony, in fact the Perseverance Rover has just manufactured oxygen on Mars. We have built Mars Domes on Earth and studied the psychology and we are experimenting with growing crops, building habitats and many other aspects of what's required. We have been for some time.

 

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And it was my point to try to explain that is absolutely not the case. In fact, I hope not to hurt you, but I find this point of view very naive. It takes a whole civilization and a great diversity of materials only available on earth to make an advanced technological object.

 

Nope! It is the case. You are wrong! The great diversity of materials you talk about are MORE abundant on the Moon, Mars and asteroid belts. Especially Helium 3 which is the perfect fuel for fusion. Its doesn't at all "take a whole civilisation" to "make an technological object". OUR civilisation has already invented the technology and done the research. Our Martian colonists would have that knowledge and experience and qualified engineers in their colony. Martian colonists wouldn't wipe their brains of all technical knowledge when they arrived. All that's required IS energy. The materials are already there, the expertise is already there, the knowledge is already there, the capability is already there to manufacture what they need..

Name one thing they need but couldn't manufacture?

 

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But all I ask is that we study this technological dependency chain very seriously

 

 Its  short term though, perhaps just a handful of years. The engineers and scientists on our Mars colony already have the knowledge, the education, and the materials for manufacture. There would be a period of time to pass before a self sustaining colony was attained but it wouldn't be protracted. 

 

57 minutes ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

So, in short. you have no scientific basis to affirm we will become extinct.

 

Of course there is. The time frame isn't known but of course we will ultimately become extinct if we stay on one planet. No civilisation has ever remained indefinitely. The resources here WILL be depleted, already we have a shortage of resources. War is a constant threat. A planet killing asteroid could hit in one million years or it could hit tomorrow but sooner or later it will. And it doesn't have to be a huge planet killing asteroid, a smaller asteroid could hit that effectively knocks us back to the stone age and renders modern civilisation non existent. 

 

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First, we can become extinct (or at least our civilization collapse) because of our own doing. That can happen in a time scale of decades, or maybe centuries. And yes, sadly, the risk seems very high. But the probability is not calculable.

 

It doesn't have to be calculable. Its enough to know its a probability. So it makes sense to mitigate that probability. 

 

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But the moment we start to look somewhere else to solve our problems is the moment we escape our responsibilities.

 

That makes no sense. We are looking elsewhere now, a planned Mars presence and in the future a Mars colony. Simultaneously we are attempting to address the issues here. We CAN and ARE doing both. One does not negate the other!

Edited May 13, 2021 by martin-w

[birdguy 3,943]

1 hour ago, Pascal_LSGC said:

if we don't become a self sustaining multiplanetary species we WILL become extinct. 

Well, isn't that the natural order of things?  Every living ends up becoming extinct.  Why not earthlings?

As for the colony on Mars.  Who are we trying to save from extinction?  The scientists and engineers?  What about the 99.9% of the people who don't have advanced degrees in science and engineering?  Are you going to leave behind the Burger King and Dominos Pizza people?  Taxi drivers?  Newspaper reporters?  Automobile mechanics? Carpenters? Undertakers?  Brick Layers?  Tailors?  Sales people?  Gardeners and landscapers?  Ordinary plumbers and electricians?  All the retired people over 65? People like myself who never went to college and have no degrees?

Are you planning for the survival of the elite in the scientific field?  Everything else that I have enumerated the last paragraph to be replaced by robots and automatons and 3D printers and deemed to be unproductive in the Mars community left behind for extinction?

Noel

[goates 576]

26 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Are you planning for the survival of the elite in the scientific field?  Everything else that I have enumerated the last paragraph to be replaced by robots and automatons and 3D printers and deemed to be unproductive in the Mars community left behind for extinction?

Once the colony became fully self sufficient and starts growing, it would be possible for many others to move there as well. Saving artists, musicians, authors and others would certainly be required too if you want to save human civilization. It will take a bit for the first explorers and settlers to establish the colony before it could be opened up to more people. However, I'm betting plumbers and electricians would be among the first to be sent (someone has to keep the water pipes and toilets running). And while many of those jobs you list may be replaced by robots, there will very likely be other jobs created that we don't know about now. How many buggy whip manufacturers are around today? How many airline pilots and computer programmers were there a hundred years ago? What jobs will there be a hundred years from now? We can't really say, but so far we have been pretty good at coming up with new jobs as old ones are replaced.