MSFS download numbers

[BobFS88 633]

41 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

If you haven’t been paying attention, JustFlight, Milviz, and FSCrew have recently all said or implied they are stopping new products (new projects) for P3D, because the P3D market for new products has drastically shrunk.  This is on top of Aerosoft doing the same thing last year.  P3D, for the consumer home market is quickly becoming obsolete for 3rd party developers.  So yes, it is lights out for P3D soon for the consumer home market (ironically, P3D officially was never intended for the consumer home market).

X-Plane is not there yet but without “revolutionary” improvement by X-Plane 12, I forecast X-Plane will suffer the same fate P3D is suffering now within the next 2 years.

X-plane has one advantage that PD3 doesn’t. While you acknowledge that PD3 was never meant for the consumer home market, X-plane is. That is one area where X-plane has the advantage with a much broader reach along with the fact that its market is across three operating systems. Its also why they have remained in business for some 26 years so it doesn’t not change much for them as it is.

For PD3 its very difficult to compete on the home front when your own licensing prohibits you from advantaging the home market while also being on one OS against your competitors. PD3 advantages is that they still have their commercial licensing that is not depended on the desires of the home market wishes and therefore will remain important in that sector.    

What X-plane 12 will be is still unknown but I won’t be betting against them just because of how MSFS is seen today. We have no idea what X-plane roadmap will look like at all and its anyone guess as to what it will be. What we do know is what MSFS road map looks like now and into the future. The real question is,  when MSFS is no longer the new kid on the block able to maintain its appeal in the those few years with the new X-plane on the scene.  

[abrams_tank 7,394]

4 minutes ago, BobFS88 said:

X-plane has one advantage that PD3 doesn’t. While you acknowledge that PD3 was never meant for the consumer home market, X-plane is. That is one area where X-plane has the advantage with a much broader reach along with the fact that its market is across three operating systems. Its also why they have remained in business for some 26 years so it doesn’t not change much for them as it is.

For PD3 its very difficult to compete on the home front when your own licensing prohibits you from advantaging the home market while also being on one OS against your competitors. PD3 advantages is that they still have their commercial licensing that is not depended on the desires of the home market wishes and therefore will remain important in that sector.    

What X-plane 12 will be is still unknown but I won’t be betting against them just because of how MSFS is seen today. We have no idea what X-plane roadmap will look like at all and its anyone guess as to what it will be. What we do know is what MSFS road map looks like now and into the future. The real question is,  when MSFS is no longer the new kid on the block able to maintain its appeal in the those few years with the new X-plane on the scene.  

I’ll also say this: in August and September or 2020 when MSFS was released, P3D users were laughing at MSFS and predicting MSFS’s demise.  Fast forward 11 months later and P3D users aren’t laughing anymore as they see developer after developer abandoning the P3D platform for MSFS.

I see the same thing from X-Plane users today who don’t see the coming storm.

It’s reminiscent of the Blackberry users who scoffed at IPhone upon IPhone’s release.  Even the head of Blackberry was scoffing at IPhone upon its release.  Well, look where the Blackberry is today and where the IPhone is today. Some of those Blackberry users that scoffed at IPhone back in 2007 are probably using an IPhone themselves today.

[Jeff Nielsen 1,385]

32 minutes ago, BobFS88 said:

X-plane has one advantage that PD3 doesn’t. While you acknowledge that PD3 was never meant for the consumer home market, X-plane is. That is one area where X-plane has the advantage with a much broader reach along with the fact that its market is across three operating systems. Its also why they have remained in business for some 26 years so it doesn’t not change much for them as it is.

For PD3 its very difficult to compete on the home front when your own licensing prohibits you from advantaging the home market while also being on one OS against your competitors. PD3 advantages is that they still have their commercial licensing that is not depended on the desires of the home market wishes and therefore will remain important in that sector.    

What X-plane 12 will be is still unknown but I won’t be betting against them just because of how MSFS is seen today. We have no idea what X-plane roadmap will look like at all and its anyone guess as to what it will be. What we do know is what MSFS road map looks like now and into the future. The real question is,  when MSFS is no longer the new kid on the block able to maintain its appeal in the those few years with the new X-plane on the scene.  

MSFS is better poised to upscale as a platform, IMO.  LM and XP may not be so much in their current form.  It's seems that MS is pretty much giving the FS team carte blanche to make the sim as good as they possibly can.  It seems like anything is on the table.

Side note:  I've often wondered if MS will come out with a license for LM to use for the new sim...lol.  I think it'd be really really hard for LM's customers to switch their stuff over.  Extremely time consuming to say the least.  I guess you could make the argument that LM could in theory do something similar with what MS did with the new sim, since it's ESP based.

You guys need to be thinking several years ahead when it comes to the new sim.  We're still in year one.  It's hard, but let your imagination run for a second and look at it from altitude.  

Edited July 18, 2021 by Jeff Nielsen

[cobalt 798]

A prediction: No sim, including X-plane, will survive in the market place without adopting satellite-based real-world scenery a la MSFS. The handwriting on the wall is very clear, and becoming clearer every day.

Edited July 19, 2021 by cobalt

[OlliePen 88]

3 hours ago, Janov said:

I think your numeration of areas where MSFS is far ahead is not complete! Consider these, where MSFS also lurches far ahead!:

4.) The way everything looks so much better.

5.) The graphics are way more advanced

6.) The scenery has a much better appearance

7.) The visuals are simply better than other simulators

8.) The way that cities look so much more lifelike

9.) The lighting engine is far better!

10.) Things look a lot more realistic.

11.) Last but not least - the depiction of the landscape is of a higher fidelity.

No need to be shy about mentioning all aspects, I think!

Now if only the users would understand this revolutionary aspect... I am sure most do, just the Steam users seem to be a little "challenged" in understanding this revolutionary achievement...yesterday was the Saturday with the lest concurrent users ever since MSFS was released about a year ago (less than 5.500). Don´t these guys get it??

https://steamcharts.com/app/1250410#6m

Well, I am sure as soon as it´s "lights out" for P3D and X-Plane, they will also see the light 🙂

@Janov What are the vast majority of X-Plane pilots on this https://feedback.x-plane.com/ site pleading for?

[Glenn Fitzpatrick 3,798]

3 hours ago, abrams_tank said:

 

It’s reminiscent of the Blackberry users who scoffed at IPhone upon IPhone’s release.  Even the head of Blackberry was scoffing at IPhone upon its release.  Well, look where the Blackberry is today and where the IPhone is today. Some of those Blackberry users that scoffed at IPhone back in 2007 are probably using an IPhone themselves today.

But you do realise the new iphone COMES IN PURPLE how could blackberry ever compete with that ?

https://www.apple.com/au/newsroom/2021/04/apple-introduces-iphone-12-and-iphone-12-mini-in-a-stunning-new-purple/

[Mace 1,902]

4 hours ago, Janov said:

I think your numeration of areas where MSFS is far ahead is not complete! Consider these, where MSFS also lurches far ahead!:

4.) The way everything looks so much better.

5.) The graphics are way more advanced

6.) The scenery has a much better appearance

7.) The visuals are simply better than other simulators

8.) The way that cities look so much more lifelike

9.) The lighting engine is far better!

10.) Things look a lot more realistic.

11.) Last but not least - the depiction of the landscape is of a higher fidelity.

No need to be shy about mentioning all aspects, I think!

Now if only the users would understand this revolutionary aspect... I am sure most do, just the Steam users seem to be a little "challenged" in understanding this revolutionary achievement...yesterday was the Saturday with the lest concurrent users ever since MSFS was released about a year ago (less than 5.500). Don´t these guys get it??

https://steamcharts.com/app/1250410#6m

Well, I am sure as soon as it´s "lights out" for P3D and X-Plane, they will also see the light 🙂

I see what you did there, and I get it.

Not you, but some people took (take) this stuff so personally.   Like they have a vendetta or paranoia (feel threatened, somehow?) toward other simulators and their fellow flight simmers.  I do not understand that mindset.   It is not healthy for AVSIM or any community.

[kevinfirth 1,392]

10 hours ago, cobalt said:

If scenery based on streaming satellite imagery of real landscapes (MSFS), vs. computer-drawn approximations (FSX, X-plane, P3D) is not revolutionary, then I don't know what is. Evolution, my foot.

One word, tileproxy.

[Bdub22 1,609]

On 7/15/2021 at 7:49 AM, pmb said:

On 7/15/2021 at 9:42 AM, RobJC said:

e.g. when HAGS (Hardware Accelerated Graphics Scheduling) was set to on after some obscure Windows Update. And there may be well a few more potential gremlins waiting to be uncovered.

I had frequent CTD's on a brand new machine running a 3080 and I had no idea why. Turns out in the BIOS, an XMP setting had been turned on. Once I turned that off, I haven't a single CTD. I agree, if you're having issues with this sim, you need to find out where the needle is, but, IT IS there, and once you figure it out -- this thing is truly amazing. 

 

[Bdub22 1,609]

I've seen some of the previews for the new XP and I'm convinced they still can't get the lighting right. I could be wrong, but I think for them to get a convincing atmosphere and that might require them pretty much starting from scratch. MSFS just keeps getting better and better and lets face it, they have the cash to stay in the game. Who knows what will happen with XP in the next 2-3 years?

 

[abrams_tank 7,394]

6 hours ago, Mace said:

Not you, but some people took (take) this stuff so personally.   Like they have a vendetta or paranoia (feel threatened, somehow?) toward other simulators and their fellow flight simmers.  I do not understand that mindset.   It is not healthy for AVSIM or any community.

You realize the person you replied to, Janov, has an article written about him at www.x-plane.com, and is also a "Community Leader" at the x-plane.org message boards, right? 

Furthermore, Janov posted in the past that if anybody says anything not true about X-Plane, no matter what forum it is, even if it is the MSFS forum here at Avsim, he will come and defend X-Plane (I believe that comment was deleted because the mods thought that thread got out of control and deleted a lot of pages worth of discussion).  That seems pretty "personal" to me.

Edited July 19, 2021 by abrams_tank

[Bdub22 1,609]

3 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

no matter what forum it is, even if it is the MSFS forum here at Avsim, he will come and defend X-Plane

This seems a little over-the-top and actually proves Mace's point.

[Dominique_K 10,133]

6 hours ago, Mace said:

I see what you did there, and I get it.

Not you, but some people took (take) this stuff so personally.   Like they have a vendetta or paranoia (feel threatened, somehow?) toward other simulators and their fellow flight simmers.  I do not understand that mindset.   It is not healthy for AVSIM or any community.

Works both ways.

To apparently enjoy more predicting a dire future for P3D or XP and demeaning their developers as retards  than telling about their flying the great sim that MFS is, is not exactly a vote of confidence in Asobo’s baby. Paranoia is shared by the groupies of both sides. 

And no, fanning tribalism is not healthy and doesn’t make the forum any better. 

[psolk 3,037]

12 hours ago, Janov said:

I think your numeration of areas where MSFS is far ahead is not complete! Consider these, where MSFS also lurches far ahead!:

4.) The way everything looks so much better.

5.) The graphics are way more advanced

6.) The scenery has a much better appearance

7.) The visuals are simply better than other simulators

8.) The way that cities look so much more lifelike

9.) The lighting engine is far better!

10.) Things look a lot more realistic.

11.) Last but not least - the depiction of the landscape is of a higher fidelity.

No need to be shy about mentioning all aspects, I think!

Now if only the users would understand this revolutionary aspect... I am sure most do, just the Steam users seem to be a little "challenged" in understanding this revolutionary achievement...yesterday was the Saturday with the lest concurrent users ever since MSFS was released about a year ago (less than 5.500). Don´t these guys get it??

https://steamcharts.com/app/1250410#6m

Well, I am sure as soon as it´s "lights out" for P3D and X-Plane, they will also see the light 🙂

Wow, so a beautiful Saturday over the summer when kids are in camp, F1 is in Silverstone, Germany is dealing with horrendous floods and most of the world is concerned with being outside and socializing again and there were only 5,500 concurrent users on Steam which means nothing because a lot of people myself included don't use Steam as a delivery mechanism.  

Ironically, everything you wrote is true as well which inevitably leads to a greater sense of immersion as the world is finally starting to feel real around you opposed to a texture "trying" to appear as what the landclass defines.  Combine that with the aircraft already available, Fenix upcoming, PMDG upcoming and the rate of development on the core sim itself and no one can compete.  The fact is when the imagery is largely delivered from the cloud you can have almost real time development.  

My company offers two product lines, Traditional on premise hardware and cloud managed hardware where the management is delivered through the cloud.  Our cloud solutions can develop exponentially quicker than our on prem gear. By moving a lot of MSFS to the cloud they've given themselves so much capability to rapidly develop it's going to be tough for "ANY" of the legacy sims to compete unless they completely change their model.   

The largest market for X-Plane is mobile, they've sold 90,000 copies via the Apple Store I believe and bring in ~90K in revenue monthly according to SensorTower. That's pretty impressive and over $1M in annual revenue in mobile sales.  Most of that is off $2 to $6 add-on planes.  That's 90,000 mobile copies, I'd wager they sell 50% of that in the desktop market.  If Austin has to make a decision mobile is his only revenue stream.  It's amazing when you take emotion out and look at the data behind the numbers which is EXACTLY what the add-on devs are doing.

Compare to 2M MSFS copies in 1 year without even hitting X-Box yet and it's no wonder dev's want to be part of this ecosystem.  

 

PS, I'm loading up P3D today for a long haul so I still use other sims as well but I'm also a data nerd and extrapolating the data behind the numbers is fascinating to me.  MSFS's success truly has me energized about the future of Flight Simulation and what ANY sim would need to achieve to match or surpass it at this point.  

Edited July 19, 2021 by psolk

[abrams_tank 7,394]

53 minutes ago, psolk said:

The largest market for X-Plane is mobile, they've sold 90,000 copies via the Apple Store I believe and bring in ~90K in revenue monthly according to SensorTower. That's pretty impressive and over $1M in annual revenue in mobile sales.  Most of that is off $2 to $6 add-on planes.  That's 90,000 mobile copies, I'd wager they sell 50% of that in the desktop market.  If Austin has to make a decision mobile is his only revenue stream.  It's amazing when you take emotion out and look at the data behind the numbers which is EXACTLY what the add-on devs are doing.

Compare to 2M MSFS copies in 1 year without even hitting X-Box yet and it's no wonder dev's want to be part of this ecosystem.  

If Austin is a smart businessman, and I think he is, after X-Plane 12, he will stop spending his money on advancing the desktop version of X-Plane because that would mean going to war with Microsoft.  Instead, Austin may focus on X-Plane for the mobile market instead and spend his money advancing the mobile version of X-Plane.

If this happens, this means future versions of X-Plane may not have features such as DLSS, which is a feature targeted for PC games, and not mobile games.

People also say Austin is deeply passionate about X-Plane and he doesn't mind spending more of his own personal fortune to make X-Plane better. I can believe if Austin is passionate enough about X-Plane, he may keep a small token number of developers to work the desktop version of X-Plane after X-Plane 12, that wouldn't cost him that much.  But IMO, there is no way that Austin would sacrifice his entire personal fortune to go to an all out war with Microsoft, because he probably needs to spend a lot of $$$ if he really wants X-Plane to catch up to MSFS.

Edited July 19, 2021 by abrams_tank