Navigraph 2021 survey is out

[mSparks 2,086]

2 minutes ago, Rimshot said:

Oh cool, another pissing contest...

Makes you feel young again doesn't it 😛

[abrams_tank 7,387]

37 minutes ago, mSparks said:

Here:

 

4.4% of the 24,200 respondents answered they had switched to xplane as their primary flight simulator this year

That is 1064 people

which is bigger than 1038 who went to MSFS.

net result, zero, nada, nothing interesting.

 

Edit:  Mistake made. mSparks is right.  Corrected calculations are here.

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[mSparks 2,086]

7 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

You can't take 4.4% of the 24,200 respondents!  Of the 24,200 respondents, only 40% switched to another flight simulator as their primary flight simulator in 2021: 

its 4.4% of all respondents answered "yes they switched to xplane"

59.4% said "no they didn't switch"

Its right there on the graph.

Edited December 30, 2021 by mSparks

[akita 429]

2 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

You can't take 4.4% of the 24,200 respondents!  Of the 24,200 respondents, only 40% switched to another flight simulator as their primary flight simulator in 2021: 

 

60% of the 24200 said no=40% said yes (the indicated at the title of the graph)

4.4% said to Xplane, hence 4.4% of 24200 is?

Very easy.

 

[abrams_tank 7,387]

21 minutes ago, mSparks said:

its 4.4% of the respondents answered "yes they switched to xplane"

59.4% said "no they didn't switch"

Its right there on the graph.

Yup, you're right.  My mistake.  

So we can take 24,200 * 0.044 * 0.374 = 398 Navigraph survey takers switched from MSFS to XP

So we can take 24,200 * 0.31 * 0.346 = 2595 Navigraph survey takers switched from XP to MSFS

I made a mistake.  But 2595 is still a lot more than 398 (because of my mistake, actually more Navigraph survey takers switched to MSFS from XP)

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[Murmur 3,941]

6 hours ago, abrams_tank said:

if you are adding XP 11.5 to XP 11/11.4, that’s not quite right

Because according to your logic, we could add MSFS to FSX to FS 2002 to FS 2004, and Microsoft has 100% of the market.

See what I mean?

What are you talking about, dude? 🤣 Of course you can add XP 11.5 to XP 11.4, just as you could add MSFS SU7 and MSFS SU6, etc.

XP11 is the main release, and 99% of addons work both in 11.4 or 11.5.

[abrams_tank 7,387]

2 minutes ago, Murmur said:

What are you talking about, dude? 🤣 Of course you can add XP 11.5 to XP 11.4, just as you could add MSFS SU7 and MSFS SU6, etc.

XP11 is the main release, and 99% of addons work both in 11.4 or 11.5.

Ok. According to your logic, Microsoft has 100% of the market then if you add MSFS + FSX + FS 2002 + FS 2004 in that survey 🤣

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[Murmur 3,941]

5 hours ago, Greazer said:

Sorry, but when Pmdg and co. come to the other sim, XP is going to get beaten up.

What dude? They're stuck, haven't you heard the news? 🤣 Anyway, XP has always done fine without PMDG...

[mtaxp 666]

Just now, abrams_tank said:

Ok. According to your logic, Microsoft has 100% of the market then if you add MSFS + FSX + FS 2002 + FS 2004 🤣

Wow, just wow.

[mSparks 2,086]

19 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

Yup, you're right.  My mistake.  

So we can take 24,200 * 0.044 * 0.374 = 398 Navigraph survey takers switched from MSFS to XP

So we can take 24,200 * 0.31 * 0.346 = 2595 Navigraph survey takers switched from XP to MSFS

I made a mistake.  But 2595 is still a lot more than 398 (because of my mistake, actually more Navigraph survey takers switched to MSFS from XP)

Does that include all of Laminar and most of us here that have already or are in the process of switching from XP11 to a new simulator?

[Murmur 3,941]

4 hours ago, abrams_tank said:

For almost all games out there (and yes, I include XP and P3D as "games" too), the peak numbers are shortly after the release of the game and then the numbers typically go down.

Dude, that's not true. XP steadily climbed in users from release onward. Sure it lost a part when MFS came out, but for a 5 year old product at the end of life, it's holding _extremely well_.

[abrams_tank 7,387]

9 minutes ago, mSparks said:

Does that include all of Laminar and most of us here that have already or are in the process of switching from XP11 to a new simulator?

This can go on and on and on.  The point is, in that Navigraph survey, 4.4% switched to XP while 31% switched to MSFS.  This says a lot more "hard core" flight simmers switched to MSFS in 2021 than any other flight simulator in 2021.

It's not surprising though since MSFS is the new shiny toy on the block that is still maturing while XP 11 is dated. I don't even find these results surprising (except for the part that more XP users switched to MSFS than P3D users, I still haven't figured out why that is the case). As @tonywob said, the better question that should be asked is how this survey looks for 2022 and 2023, once XP 12 is released (assuming XP 12 is released in 2022).

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[Murmur 3,941]

3 hours ago, Greazer said:

That's what I fear about for XP. It could be in for a hard landing (or worse).

Your predictions are as reliable as when you were forecasting: "When MFS will be out, XP will be dead". What an epic fail! 🤣

[mSparks 2,086]

7 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

The point is, in that Navigraph survey, 4.4% switched to XP while 31% switched to MSFS. 

The points are

• 31% of very small number (people using Xplane last year), is smaller than 4.4% of a large number (people using MSFS last year), no amount of incorrecting yourself will change that.
• Your numbers are still insignificant, "success" is measured in 100s of thousands, not tens or hundreds.
• XP11 is end of life.
• XP12 is already in the hands of 3rd parties.

Now, iirc you were trying to make some point about the future of flightsim... what was that again?

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by mSparks

[mtaxp 666]

5 hours ago, mtaxp said:

XP11 is still XP11, the same product, the same money you paid. Only difference is a check box in the UI, if MSFS was split to DX11 VS DX12, will you claim the same? 

Quoting for @abrams_tank

Can someone help him understand the difference between MSFS dx12 vs dx11 compared to msfs vs fsx vs fs2004 vs fs2002?

Edited December 30, 2021 by mtaxp