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GoranM

Official. XP12 has outsold XP11!

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We will see how rich XP12 has made Laminar when there's a gold plated, completely electric Lancair Evolution zipping around the skies or a "Meyer Space Program" or so. 😉


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16 hours ago, tonywob said:

when the other sim didn't even exist.

10 hours ago, Franz007 said:

that the part of users using XP (11 or 12) as their preferred sim increased from 16 to 20% within the last year. This is a significant growth of market shares by +25%.

16% of ~200,000 pilots

to

20% of 10 million "pilots"

no less

So it could be both outsold XP11 in the 18 months and outsold XP11 through XP11s entire sales cycle...

It is one and/or the other. But either way, "thank you microsofties for all the free marketing", we love you really,

/runs

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18 hours ago, Franz007 said:

You are right. But we can assume that the market-share did increase because the last navigraph-study shows that the part of users using XP (11 or 12) as their preferred sim increased from 16 to 20% within the last year. This is a significant growth of market shares by +25%.

That's not correct though, actual market share or change in it can't be inferred from that metric. "Preferred sim" doesn't mean people purchased more copies, just that 20% prefer it over the alternatives. That increase could all be people who owned multiple sims before and now shifted their preference without buying a new one.

The increase of what you called market share also isn't 25%. It increased by 4% (percentage in relation to the total pool size of respondents, not in relation to the number of positive answers to that question in last year's survey).

Edited by threexgreen

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32 minutes ago, threexgreen said:

That's not correct though, actual market share or change in it can't be inferred from that metric. "Preferred sim" doesn't mean people purchased more copies, just that 20% prefer it over the alternatives. That increase could all be people who owned multiple sims before and now shifted their preference without buying a new one.

The increase of what you called market share also isn't 25%. It increased by 4% (percentage in relation to the total pool size of respondents, not in relation to the number of positive answers to that question in last year's survey).

hes not talking about preferred sim, hes talking about the percentage of people that use a sim and how regularly. 

that includes everyone, even ppl who only use a sim rarely - to use it rarely they still have to have it.

Edited by mSparks
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18 hours ago, brinx said:

Correct. For example, if xplane 11  sold 1 million copies in 18 months. It would mean that xplane 12 sold 1.12 million copies in 18 months. Or if xplane 11 sold 100,000 copies in 18 months then xplane 12 has sold 112,000 copies in 18 months. Basically, units sold over a given time for 11 vs 12.  LR does not release the actual sales figures.

Thanks for the clarification! This makes more sense.

Edited by Flightsky

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It will sell more than XP11 it's logical , it's got better visuals and wx system .  

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19 minutes ago, Humpty said:

It will sell more than XP11 it's logical , it's got better visuals and wx system .  

and more support than ever, and investment in human resources and ideas than ever !  LR is on the right track finally !!!


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14 hours ago, mSparks said:

16% of ~200,000 pilots

to

20% of 10 million "pilots"

no less

So it could be both outsold XP11 in the 18 months and outsold XP11 through XP11s entire sales cycle...

It is one and/or the other. But either way, "thank you microsofties for all the free marketing", we love you really,

/runs

Well, these numbers are based on the navigraph-survey and so more related to the « hardcore-simmers », not on the entire 10 mio. I also don’t think it makes sense to count the millions of casual-gamers using a sim on an XBox in the outer view with the instruments-overlay all few weeks to that same community. Same as I would also not count someone using a sim on a smartphone to that same community. The most important part in my opinion are the « hardcore-users ». And I don’t think they have increased that much globally, even after MSFS.

Edited by Franz007
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6 hours ago, threexgreen said:

That's not correct though, actual market share or change in it can't be inferred from that metric. "Preferred sim" doesn't mean people purchased more copies, just that 20% prefer it over the alternatives. That increase could all be people who owned multiple sims before and now shifted their preference without buying a new one.

The increase of what you called market share also isn't 25%. It increased by 4% (percentage in relation to the total pool size of respondents, not in relation to the number of positive answers to that question in last year's survey).

Good point. You’re right with both statements. For the second statement we can also say that the numbers of users using XP 11 or 12 as prefered sim increased by 25% resulting in an increase of market shares by 4%.

And we have to keep in mind that this survey is mostly based on the « hardcore users » otherwise I think XP’s market shares would be way smaller. I think the community of those is the most important one because it is the one that will invest the most into sim-addons and not the casual-XBox- or smartphone-users. As I said in my previous comment, I don’t think that the community of these hardcore-users has increased that much in the pas few years. So there is still room for more who could use XP and I think it will depend a lot on the future addons and improvements of each sim. For example, the fact that XP should offer a realistic 3D weather-radar in a few months may help gaining some new users purchasing am XP-licence etc.

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1 hour ago, Franz007 said:

I also don’t think it makes sense to count the millions of casual-gamers using a sim on an XBox

This one is absolutely where the highest uncertainty comes from.

But.

It's reasonable to consider XBox is a lot smaller than we would "guess" from "our friends had XBOX's". flight sim on XBOX is limited to Series X and S consoles, They have been a total flop, selling only ~23Million units to date, even more so from their showing in the navigraph survey.

There are some ~120Million PC Steam gamers, this is a pretty good estimate for "number of people with a gaming PC", these will be both "high end gaming PCs" plus "low end PCs + console(s)"

Your typical blockbuster AAA game sells ~60 million copies before sales dry up, roughly 1 in 2 people with a gaming rig.

Only way you get more than that is if you also hit mobile, some 800million devices in developed countries, several billion globaly.

The best target atm is occulus:

https://www.roadtovr.com/quest-psvr-2-unit-sales-holiday-2023/

Edited by mSparks

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2 hours ago, Franz007 said:

I also don’t think it makes sense to count the millions of casual-gamers using a sim on an XBox in the outer view with the instruments-overlay

Why wouldn't you count them? Casual users are still users that generate sales. I gave my son a xbox gift card for Christmas and he bought a 35$ addon plane for MSFS. He's not even a teenager yet. Was the $200 yawman  flight controller (https://yawmanflight.com/) created for the hardcore simmers? The casual simmers of today will be the hardcore simmers of tomorrow so you can't ignore them regardless of how they SIM.

 

2 hours ago, mSparks said:

Only way you get more than that is if you also hit mobile, some 800million devices in developed countries, several billion globaly.

In other words, you target those casual users that Franz007 would like to ignore.  Apparently, it is the new strategy of Phil Spencer.

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59 minutes ago, brinx said:

In other words, you target those casual users

not so much, we are already close if not at the point where the majority of mobile devices have better performance than the majority of PCs, we will surely (I hope) be there before XP12 is EOL.

You cant even buy a decent gpu for the $500 of a quest 3, let alone a full VR capable system.

yet none of the flightsims have targeted them yet, despite being the largest market for flightsim.


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1 hour ago, brinx said:

Why wouldn't you count them? Casual users are still users that generate sales. I gave my son a xbox gift card for Christmas and he bought a 35$ addon plane for MSFS. He's not even a teenager yet. Was the $200 yawman  flight controller (https://yawmanflight.com/) created for the hardcore simmers? The casual simmers of today will be the hardcore simmers of tomorrow so you can't ignore them regardless of how they SIM.

It's perhaps me but I just cannot take XBox-players using a sim seriously. I just can't. I already felt bad when i had to use an app called "XBox" something when launching MSFS. And then seeing a big "Xbox" on the starting screen, although I am using a PC. I just can't. For me flight siming has always been something very special and not at all comparable to any other casual-game. Sorry. No offense, i jus't cannot take them seriously. I also witnessed how MS made some updates worst because they had to adapt to that casual-gaming-platform. Same with people using a sim on their phone, although they may become hardcore-simmers later; I won't count them either.


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23 minutes ago, Franz007 said:

I won't count them either.

Like I said above, I dont think they are a big group either.

xbox has gamepass, msfs in on gamepass, so on xbox msfs is (unlike PC ) effectively free to use.

msfs was pitched as a AAA title, so entirely within reason that 1 in 2 of the 20mill series s|x owners tried it. "10 million pilots"

The other thing with a console, is, even though not ideal, the xbox controller is a significantly lower barrier than getting a controller on PC (which basically no one owns, and even the low end stuff is very much not cheap).

But there is a huge difference between trying something and continuing to use it. I see zero evidence that any of the low barrier entry points to flight sim (consoles, xplane on android/apple) make up a significant persistent userbase.

I do think this will change when aces of thunder drops for PSVR2 very soon now, and a large, broad base of users have access to a "not broken" flight sim in VR, right now how hard it is to get hold of aircraft pedals says to me there just isnt big numbers of flight simmers - there are race car pedals in basically every tech shop I've visited globally for years. 


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