Predictions regarding the launch of 2024...

[RobJC]

So, what do you guys think? Is the launch going to be pretty smooth, a dumpster fire, or something in between? I am voting either it gets delayed or is a dumpster fire. I expect a lot of problems across the board and put a release delay at 50/50 right now. I am fine with them releasing it too early, because until it gets in enough user's hands issues won't get ironed out.  Super pumped about MSFS 2024 but I am a realist. No way this thing is ready in 5-6 weeks. Not in my opinion. I will be happy if the major issues are fixed by the end of the year. Long term this is going to be an amazing project (just like 2020) but patience is going to be a virtue. Great product. Awesome development team. Nothing but respect for these guys. 

Hoping for the best, but absolutely expecting the worst. 

[Tuskin38]

I see no reason why it won't be ready for launch.

[DAD]

Quote

but I am a realist

Why such doubts before we even saw the product? Really wondering what you want to achieve with such a post. Relax, sit back, enjoy life. And when it‘s there and unplayable - feel free to complain. But now? that is not how a realist acts but a pessimist

Edited October 11, 2024 by DAD

[Bnash00]

I don't know but I was just selected to participate in the technical alpha! Testing ends on Monday 10/14 at 12:00am PT. 

[fppilot]

The local and national weather forecasters here cannot forecast the 10-day forecasts with accuracy.  So please explain/disclose/validate the activity in this topic 🤣

[fppilot]

59 minutes ago, Bnash00 said:

I don't know but I was just selected to participate in the technical alpha! Testing ends on Monday 10/14 at 12:00am PT. 

Were we not all invited?

[JBDB-MD80]

Wow just wow, I never knew a piece of Entertainment software could stress people out a month even before release. People are already freaking out, like their life depends on it. Its non essential and is for enjoyment (stress reliever) not to cause stress. Go outside and touch grass for a minute here.

[Ron Attwood]

Crystal balls being polished up. 🙄

[sloppysmusic]

🥱

[Scottoest]

They're building an evolution of what is a pretty mature codebase now.  I doubt the launch will be perfect, but I suspect it'll be much better than 2020.

[Ricardo41]

I'll need to stock up on beer and popcorn.

[bobcat999]

I can't see it being much different from the MSFS2020 launch.  No show-stoppers, but handful of bugs that they will take care of with the first few updates.

I think people who are expecting a perfect launch or the apocalypse just won't get to see either.

So as much as I would like to join Ricardo with beer and popcorn, I won't be getting any in for the launch.  I will save that for the MSFS2024 v XP12 thread. 

[MarcG]

It 100% will not be delayed, I do have the very realistic perception that of course there may well be issues, it certainly won't be plain sailing and there will be annoying areas that I think "just why did they do this?!". Biggest initial and potentially damaging scenario is a complete server bog down on release day as hundreds of thousands attempt their first download & flights, I'd be very surprised if the servers don't struggle in that first 24hour window as we all clamour for download speeds and streaming quality. It's not uncommon for major online games to struggle in this area at that time, so I'm well prepared to sit it out for a couple of days if it becomes a dumpster fire!

[Sethos]

Gonna be like every other major release that is very backend server dependent. It'll launch, servers will get inadvertently DDoS'd due to a large and sudden influx of users, people will experience some sporadic connection issues, slower speeds, login issues, disconnects etc. while others will be enjoying it just fine.

Then we'll have the inevitable complaints about this like "Oh why didn't they see this coming and made preparations! Why didn't they just add 300% more servers!" like that exact scenario doesn't happen with literally every major game that is very online dependent in the past 15+ years, plus they don't understand scaling like this isn't feasible in the slightest and it'll all settle down within hours or days.

And then we'll be flying, talking, reporting bugs and waiting for addons.

Edited October 12, 2024 by Sethos

[RobJC]

4 hours ago, Sethos said:

Gonna be like every other major release that is very backend server dependent. It'll launch, servers will get inadvertently DDoS'd due to a large and sudden influx of users, people will experience some sporadic connection issues, slower speeds, login issues, disconnects etc. while others will be enjoying it just fine.

Then we'll have the inevitable complaints about this like "Oh why didn't they see this coming and made preparations! Why didn't they just add 300% more servers!" like that exact scenario doesn't happen with literally every major game that is very online dependent in the past 15+ years, plus they don't understand scaling like this isn't feasible in the slightest and it'll all settle down within hours or days.

And then we'll be flying, talking, reporting bugs and waiting for addons.

Definitely going to see major server issues, so agree 100% with you on that one. I doubt i will even try installing the sim on day one. I also fully expect this forum to become a dumpster fire as people lose it as obvious bugs are encountered. I am not sure how anyone can forget the last four years? Of course there are going to be problems. That is not pessimism. That is an outlook based on hard facts. The event they just hosted was also full of bugs. Every video i have watched since has had bugs. Jorg is not going to a big event due to the release, and he just said a lot of work is left. Are we even going to get a beta before launch? So my expectations are that this will not release in very good shape. It will get there. Again, great product. Great team. But this is a very ambitious project and this version will touch all aspects of the sim. It will almost certainly be pretty rough out of the gates. That isn’t pessimism. That is being realistic. 

I love this product but my expectations are tempered for the first few months. This thing is revolutionary imo but my expectations are lowered for the initial release. I would rather be pleasantly surprised when things go incredibly smooth instead of being disappointed that it was released prematurely and in a broken state.