Clear skies

[martin-w 3,234]

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There is now research that indicates otherwise (on nearly all your points). 

 I understand that research is not proof but this article certainly corresponds with my observations over nearly 20 years as a keen weather watcher. I'm a regular and experienced coastal sailor (racing small boats with my wife) , although I'm not an expert on the technical side of forecasting I do know what the weather looks like.

 

Your article isn't about  "sky clarity". I said I didn't know of any immediate impact on sky clarity as a result of global warming from aircraft. I didn't mention contrails and the impact they have on global warming and neither did you. Unless of course I completely misunderstood you.

When you said "incredibly clear blur skies" You were referring to "atmospheric clarity" not contrails. Hence why you hypothesised it was related to atmospheric pressure. And in the same context you asked if the "sky clarity" was related to less aircraft activity, the implication (I assumed) being due to lower aircraft emissions. 

 

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I don't know the figures for jet liner contributions to global warming but purely from an observational perspective it seems to make a lot of immediate difference to conditions.

 

I assumed you were referring to CO2 emissions from aircraft causing global warming and thus having an impact on sky clarity. And the reduction in those emissions improving sky clarity.

Now it seems we are referring to the impact of contrails. And in which case its an interesting article you linked to. I've read similar articles before, going back to 2011. 

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by martin-w

[GaryK 201]

Sorry I didn't get the "Jargon" right. I'm just ordinary folk who plays on flightsims 😉

I'll clarify. 

For me clear blue skies = clear blue skies as viewed from my (or your) back yard =  a beautiful day that hasn't been made slightly less beautiful by contrail cirrus.

As for your points that the research contradicts.

"So clearer skies no, certainly not on a time scale of a matter of days or weeks."....the research suggests visibly it's an almost immediate effect.

"What we are seeing above the UK is a short term "local" weather event, not a long terms "global" climate event." .....the research suggests it's possibly  (I think probably) not.

"The airline industry generates 2% of all human-induced carbon dioxide emissions." .......The research indicates that cirrus contrails contribute 5% to global warming. OK, carbon emmisions are not the same thing as global warming but carbon emissions are not the whole picture.

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by GaryK

[martin-w 3,234]

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Sorry I didn't get the "Jargon" right. 

I'll clarify. 

For me clear blue skies = clear blue skies as viewed from my (or your) back yard =  a beautiful day that hasn't been made slightly less beautiful by contrail cirrus.

 

Oh right. Fair enough. I misunderstood. 

 

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So clearer skies no, certainly not on a time scale of a matter of days or weeks."....the research suggests visibly it's an almost immediate effect.

 

Yes, as I say, I assumed you were referring to CO2 emissions from aircraft thus global warming impacting atmospheric composition and clarity. Certainly seems as if contrails can have a rapid impact on local temperature. And those local conditions are global during an entire industry shut down. But when I say "global" that only applies in terms of average temperature. The impact will vary dependant on local weather and time. 

 

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"What we are seeing above the UK is a short term "local" weather event, not a long terms "global" climate event." .....the research suggests it's possibly  (I think probably) not.

 

 

No... what we are seeing now above the UK is weather The current clear weather we are seeing in the UK was forecast. Yes, it seems the lack of contrails could impact that and induce a degree of cooling, but It's impossible to quantify how much of an impact the current lack of contrails has in terms of the weather we are seeing because in the short term the impact varies dependant on location and time. For example, in another locality, with complete cloud cover, the local short term conditions there will not be impacted by the absence of contrails.

On the other hand what concerns us is long term and global and average temperature. And in that respect contrails contribute to long term average temperature. 

 

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The airline industry generates 2% of all human-induced carbon dioxide emissions." .......The research indicates that cirrus contrails contribute 5% to global warming. OK, carbon emmisions are not the same thing as global warming but carbon emissions are not the whole picture.

 

You may be right. Provide a link. I said... "The airline industry generates 2% of all human-induced carbon dioxide emissions."  I didn't say it was the entire picture.  

Weather forecast from Saturday and into next week is all cloudy. No clear skies for you, regardless of lack of contrails. 🙂

 

 

Edited March 27, 2020 by martin-w

[GaryK 201]

Some of the misunderstanding was down to my lack of detail I'm sure.

I'll not labour the point because I'm not a fanatic, as I said I'm just an ordinary bloke with lovely kids and grand kids.

Perhaps some good can come from the current global situation once we come out the other side. Maybe it's time to curb our love affair with cheap holidays twice a year and an ever expanding jet aviation industry, it does contribute quite significantly to duller days and global warming. 

I shall enjoy the tube liners on my flightsim but I will think long and hard before I get on a jet again.......time to let them go?  maybe. Time to think about letting them go? definitely


Thanks for reading and stay safe.