XP12 Must be Backwards Compatible

[jarmstro 2,405]

2 hours ago, mSparks said:

what blew my mind (and what I'm still grappling with) is those numbers are an absolute disaster for all three.

like i knew pc was struggling (most windows pcs are laptops with no gpu of note), but holy mary, the refunds for msfs must have put cyberpunk to shame to hit net sales that low - checks - omg, even cyberpunk 2077 is demolishing them on steam......

It almost leaves me thinking that xp12 should have lower minimum specs than xp11 (alongside higher recommended), but I'm really not sure what can be done to improve the situation, I guess we'll know more after the Q&A in a few days.

 

XP12 needs to at least match MSFS in terms of like for like performance. If it manages that it's job done. And maybe LR should consider porting it onto consoles to attract a younger user base.

Edited July 26, 2021 by jarmstro

[Gulfstream 416]

1 hour ago, jarmstro said:

XP12 needs to at least match MSFS in terms of like for like performance. If it manages that it's job done. And maybe LR should consider porting it onto consoles to attract a younger user base.

By "like for like performance", what are you meaning?

That X-Plane should have the same graphics as MSFS and run at equal or better performance?  Or that X-Plane should focus on performance and not bother with eye candy?

If you mean the former, in that X-Plane has to now compete with Microsoft/Asobo, that simply isn't possible.  Look at the number of developers, the size of the companies, and the budget.

If you mean something else by "performance", which could be anything from FPS to simulation fidelity, it's not clear.

I'm a software engineer so I'd be happy to explain why, realistically, LR can't compete with MSFS on a manpower basis alone.  It goes beyond even Asobo, where other contractors have been brought in (Blackshark AI, etc) that have some incredible technology in their own right.  Add in Bing maps, Azure cloud, custom in-house modelers that have already brought 1,000+ custom modelled POIs as the World Updates continue.

You can see how this is a scary time to be a competitor.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Gulfstream

[Gulfstream 416]

0 

1 hour ago, jarmstro said:

XP12 needs to at least match MSFS in terms of like for like performance. If it manages that it's job done. And maybe LR should consider porting it onto consoles to attract a younger user base.

They can't go to XBox because they are not on a Microsoft game technology stack.

X-Plane runs native on Linux, Mac and Windows.  You'll note the recent graphics update was Vulkan, not DirectX 12.

[GoranM 3,778]

MSFS graphics are nothing revolutionary, and can easily be used in other flight sims and games.  It's a lighting engine which is, from what I remember, 7 or more years old.  It's not proprietary, and there is a license fee for using it. Basically, anyone can use it...for a fee.  There's even documents explaining how it works and how to implement it.

LR can implement any engine they want, as long as it's compatible with all 3 operating systems.

The budget for MSFS is not without its ceiling.  Behind the scenes, there is someone at the Microsoft accounting office checking off every single cent that is being spent.  And if it's projected that MSFS will lose money, they'll pull the plug faster than you can say, "Microsoft".

This is what happens when there are shareholders.  If MSFS loses money, it means money lost for the shareholders.  LR is a private company.  Run by 1 man.  He doesn't answer to shareholders.  If X-Plane starts running at a loss, and the mobile market does well, he can spend money from XP mobile on pumping up X-Planes popularity.  Without a board of directors (who are very likely not into flight sims by any stretch) telling him not to.  

So, can X-Plane's lighting look like MSFS?  Of course it can!  Does LR want to use the lighting engine?  That's up to them.  

"You can see how this is a scary time to be a competitor."

I've been around flight sims since FS5.  And my first X-Plane version was X-Plane 4.  With every version of MSFS released, I've read the same thing.  X-Plane will fail.  X-Plane is dead.  LR will go out of business.  I remember when P3D was announced, it was the worst case of "RIP X-Plane" I've seen.  

"LR can't compete with Lockheed Martin.  They're finished, blah blah blah"

P3D is probably one of the worst versions of MSFS.

X-Plane doesn't have to MATCH MSFS to succeed.  Why would it have to?  MSFS has always had the lions share of the flight sim market.  But X-Plane has always run at a profit.  I've been a full time developer for 12 years.  With only a handful of add ons.  And I have no complaints.  Could I make more money in MSFS?  Sure.  But there are reasons I choose to stay with X-Plane.  But that's another forum post.

Edited July 26, 2021 by GoranM

[Gulfstream 416]

16 minutes ago, GoranM said:

MSFS graphics are nothing revolutionary, and can easily be used in other flight sims and games.  It's a lighting engine which is, from what I remember, 7 or more years old.  It's not proprietary, and there is a license fee for using it. Basically, anyone can use it...for a fee.

I mentioned I was a software engineer.  I honestly can't go into the "nitty gritty" on why this is all wrong, but suffice it to say, it is.

The platform that the new MSFS is built on is far, far more than a "lighting engine".  You might be thinking of specific technologies like trueSKY, which can get you a realistic volumetric atmosphere.

https://simul.co/

I really can't go into specifics about the deeper graphical pipelines, cloud technologies, etc.  I don't work for anyone involved, but I can only say we're talking thousands of engineers who have worked on various parts of this.

I don't know how many employees LR has.  The last estimates I saw was ~10, and not all of these are working on the core of the desktop simulator.

You can see why this is not favorable.

Edit: For the record I'm also a US commercial pilot and graduated with a degree in Aeronautical Science in the 90s.  I was already a heavy flight simulation enthusiast back then .. in fact, flight sims are what started me on that journey.

 

Edited July 26, 2021 by Gulfstream

[GoranM 3,778]

Yes, I know you mentioned you were a software engineer.  And you don't have to go into the nitty gritty, because I'm immersed in the nitty gritty of this kind of stuff.  

But as I've mentioned, I've seen the documentation on the lighting engine, and it was not made by Asobo.  Microsoft are paying a scalable license fee for using it in MSFS.  The more copies of MSFS they sell, the less the fee is.  IIRC, it's down to cents per copy sold due to the large sales figures.

I never mentioned anything about cloud technologies or graphical pipelines.  I only mentioned lighting, which is what gives MSFS the look it has.  I've seen a developers workflow via screen share in discord, and I know exactly how it all works.  I know you can see each texture bake via different modes within the sim.  (Very cool feature btw).  I've helped a developer texture for MSFS.  I'm also included in the LR Slack group, and I see things going on in there, regarding development, that would be ancient egyptian to the everyman.

I'm not really interested in having a "I know more than you do" competition with you.  I'm just telling you, the lighting engine is 7+ year old tech.  And any game developer can use it for a fee.  Including LR.

You might know about this stuff based on your employment.  But I know this stuff because I've seen it, read it, and worked in it.  Let's just leave it at that.

Edited July 26, 2021 by GoranM

[Gulfstream 416]

 

10 minutes ago, GoranM said:

I only mentioned lighting, which is what gives MSFS the look it has.

This simply wrong.

I could show you ray-traced graphics from 1995 showing how light reacted with a glass bottle that were impressive.  That is the "lighting" engine.

And I'm certainly not trying to do a "my credentials are better than your credentials" thing.

This is more than a "lighting engine".  

Yes, while it involves light, the actual technical details to make something look like this is much more than the sum of its parts.

Edit: The interesting thing about this discussion is I'd be happy to talk to anyone at LR about this.  They'd know exactly what I'm talking about.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Gulfstream

[GoranM 3,778]

MSFS vs X-Plane again.

Ok.  You win.

[GoranM 3,778]

4 minutes ago, Gulfstream said:

Edit: The interesting thing about this discussion is I'd be happy to talk to anyone at LR about this.  They'd know exactly what I'm talking about.

There's nothing stopping you.

austin@x-plane.com

[Gulfstream 416]

2 minutes ago, GoranM said:

MSFS vs X-Plane again.

Ok.  You win.

I might "win" if only because I have deep technical knowledge about all of this minutea.

What isn't going to "win" in the long run is competition in the flight sim community, because it's becoming clear that the bar has been raised to drastically different heights.

That is good for flight simulation as a whole, because this is an impressive feat.  It may not be good for FS competition.

And I'm a long time X-Plane user and still remember when I bought this at my local computer store.  That was before the CPL/ATP.

[GoranM 3,778]

I use this analogy every time someone tells me "X-Plane can't survive against Microsoft".

The 2 biggest operating systems.  MacOS and Windows.  Windows is far more popular than MacOS, with 45% of PC users running Windows versus 29% using MacOS.  Which OS is better?  I'd bet even a good portion of Windows users would say MacOS.  So how is it Apple has stayed in business this long?  Both Microsoft and Apple sell tablets, thinkpads, notebooks, phones.  And yet Apple is still around.  Apple doesn't need to sell more than Microsoft to stay in business.  Although Apple probably do sell more phones and tablets.  They just need to remain profitable.  Same with any software.  X-Plane doesn't need to look as good as, or better than MSFS.  It just needs to stay profitable.  

I don't even need to go down the Linux road.  Even that's still around.  

This mentality of "If X-Plane doesn't look as good as or better than MSFS, it'll die" mentality just doesn't make sense.  Let's say X-Plane DOES do everything better than MSFS...does that mean MSFS will die?  Of course not!

Edited July 26, 2021 by GoranM

[jarmstro 2,405]

1 hour ago, Gulfstream said:

If you mean something else by "performance", which could be anything from FPS to simulation fidelity, it's not clear.

XP12 is mainly about graphical improvements. So I mean FPS basically. It needs to run as well as MSFS with equivalent settings in order to compete?

[Gulfstream 416]

6 minutes ago, GoranM said:

They just need to remain profitable.  Same with any software.  X-Plane doesn't need to look as good as, or better than MSFS.  It just needs to stay profitable.  

Correct.

The question is how long LR as a company can remain profitable when faced with a herculean engineering effort.  Given the two value propositions, why would I choose X-Plane?

Yes we can get into the weeds with everything from blade element theory to sub-orbital flight but I am mostly speaking about the average consumer.

And I don't want to rock the apple cart but "blade element theory" is actually one of these fancy-sounding things that has already been surpassed.

And as crazy as this may sound, I am rooting for LR ... but I am realistic.  I don't think this most recent push from MS can be ignored.

 

[Gulfstream 416]

9 minutes ago, jarmstro said:

XP12 is mainly about graphical improvements. So I mean FPS basically. It needs to run as well as MSFS with equivalent settings in order to compete?

XP12 won't have anywhere near the graphics fidelity of the engine that is driving MSFS2020.

I'm in this field.  Mark my words.  

And note I'm not happy about it, it means less competition.

But unless LR can hire an extra 1,000+ engineers and find a favorable cloud streaming contract, it isn't possible.

Edit: Note with this comment I am including everyone from Microsoft to Asobo, to Blackshark AI to Bing Maps, to Azure.

There is a LOT of engineering behind this.  LR is well aware of this.  I'm not sure what happens now.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Gulfstream

[Gulfstream 416]

And just to show that I have at least some credentials here, I was always in awe of Austin for 3 things:

• X-Plane
• Xavion
• That personal plane of his

X-Plane has done him well.  I am not sure what (if any) path forward there is here.

Forget desktop PCs.  If Microsoft takes over the ground-based sim market that X-Plane has and gets the regulatory approval ...

And I've trained on my fair share of X-Plane based sims.