january

But isn't that the point? - That a possibility, however remote, should not be discarded just because it has (apparently) never happened before? The Wright brothers were considered to be nut cases and not worthy of serious possibility - until one day at Kitty Hawk. Investigations proceed from two directions- Available evidence and theoretical possibility. In many instances, the two may not be in agreement. But both need evaluation before a conclusion is reached. Sorry if I have offended you and disappointed that you wish to rule out a possibility - literally before the investigation has begun. january

Those who are skeptical of even the possibility of a meteoroid hit on an airliner, might wish to read the following extract from "physics.org- April 17, 2014". QUOTE- "This Earth Day, Tuesday, April 22, three former NASA astronauts will present new evidence that our planet has experienced many more large-scale asteroid impacts over the past decade than previously thought… three to ten times more, in fact. A new visualization of data from a nuclear weapons warning network, to be unveiled by B612 Foundation CEO Ed Lu during the evening event at Seattle's Museum of Flight, shows that "the only thing preventing a catastrophe from a 'city-killer' sized asteroid is blind luck." UNQUOTE This group is urging an early warning system for earth, in the hope that an incoming asteroid might be diverted from an earthly catastrophe. january

Here is another response from one of the leading experts on impact phenomena, David Morrison of the NASA Ames Research Center: From Scientific American- July 1997 "It is certainly possible for a meteorite to strike a commercial airliner, although the probability is low. We can make a very rough estimate by comparing the area of airliners with the area of cars in the U.S. A typical car has an area on the order of 10 square meters, and there are roughly 100 million cars in the U.S., for a total cross-sectional area of about 1,000 square kilometers. The typical airliner has a cross-sectional area of several hundred square meters, but the number of planes is much smaller than the number of cars, perhaps a few thousand. The total cross-sectional area of airliners is therefore no more than 10 square kilometers, or a factor of at least 100 less than that of cars. Three cars are known to have been struck by meteorites in the U.S. during the past century, so it would appear that the odds are against any airplanes having been hit, but it is not impossible that one might have been. ----------------------------- Worth noting that there are many more airplanes flying in 2014 and at higher altitudes for longer durations than when this was published some 17 years ago. And that airplanes now tend to be larger targets! This calculation also relates to the US rather than airplanes worldwide. january

Bloomberg News is reporting Bluefin 21 is, today, on its final search of the area where pinger signals were thought to have been heard. Bloomberg in the same item also reports the following- The optimism injected into the search after pinger signals were picked up may also prove ill-founded because the sounds could have come from sources other than the emergency beacons, said Peter Herzig, executive director of the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Oceanographic Research in Kiel, Germany. All of which reminds one of the quote attributed to Satchel Paige- "it ain't over 'till it's over." january

Wow- I feel a little like how Leonardo Da Vinci may have felt after he proposed the crazy idea that man might someday fly! Except that a meteoroid hit bringing down an airliner is NOT my idea. It was proposed by two Columbia University scientists- Physics Prof. Charles Hailey and Astronomy Prof. David Helfand. They published a letter in the New York Times on Sept 19 1996 proposing the POSSIBILITY that a meteoroid might have brought down TWA Flight 800. In that article they pointed out that "approx. 3000 meteors a day with the requisite mass strike earth." The fact that such an event has "apparently " never happened, does not preclude it from eventually occurring.Those who deny the possibility are betting against the croupier !!! If something CAN happen, sooner or later it will !!! Ask the owners of houses and cars that have been hit by meteorites! january

The scientists at Columbia University who proposed the meteoroid theory for the downing of TWA 800 must have been serious since they published their investigation & NAMES in the New York Times. I'm not a mathemetician nor astrophysics scientist so I bow to their expertise. Neither do I have any preconceived notion as to what happened to MH370. But an investigation is likely a farce if possibilities are ruled out because they "seem improbable". Worth pointing out too, that more airplanes are flying today than ever before for longer hours at higher altitudes than a few years ago. 40,000' is now commonplace even on runs as short as 400 miles. Also worth pointing out that meteoroids are 50-60 % more common in equatorial regions than polar regions. (from the NASA astrophysics Data Division: Ian Halliday- Canada Dominion Observatory.) Kuala Lumpur is close to the equator! Yes, meteorite collision is a long shot- but so is any other theory as to what happened to MH370. january

I'm not proposing that what happened in the disappearance of 370 was caused by a meteoroid strike. Simply that such an event seems to fit with the little info that is available to the public. A proper investigation will consider ALL possibilities- especially in the knowledge that frequently the solution is not the obvious. And I have to admit that I was quite surprised upon doing some basic research into meteoroid "hit" probability. We live in a world under bombardment, protected only by earth's atmosphere. When you climb out of that protection it becomes a different game! january

In 1996, scientists at Columbia University calculated that the odds of an airplane being struck by a meteoroid were 1 in 10 over a 30 year period. Since then the number of aircraft in the skies has considerably increased with longer times aloft - and they are flying higher where the risk is greater. One wonders WHEN not IF, a meteoroid will tangle with an airplane. january

You just said the magic phrase- "an extremely unlikely event" !!! Remember the truism- If something CAN happen, sooner or later it will ! One would sure hope that the investigators of MH370 will not ignore possibilities that are "unlikely". january

Only seen on TV- as in a chamber teaching students use of oxy masks in the event of sudden decomp. Done by perforation of a diaphragm in wall of the chamber. ---------------- Consider however that the hole could be very small- perhaps size of a BB pellet.. At a meteoroid speed of say 40+ km/second, it could punch a very nice and small hole, leading to non explosive decomp. In other words a big leak rather than explosion! Scientists at U of Adelaide estimate that earth intercepts DAILY about 19,000 meteoroids weighing over 3.5 oz. (apparently, most burn up in the denser atmosphere below 40,000 ft - Wilbur & Orville were most likely not especially concerned by THAT risk!) january

Yes - quite true for TWA 800, which blew up while airborne. But suppose a meteoroid the size of a bullet (or smaller) went thru the equipment bay and a fuel tank without physically exploding & destroying the aircraft. The result might be instant depressurization, loss of all instrumentation and a jet of flaming JP4 as the fuel was instantly sucked out by the atmosphere at FL350. This latter was reported at the time by a worker on an oil platform offshore from Vietnam in the S China Sea, who thought it was a plane going down. In this scenario, the crew would don masks and likely attempt to turn back toward Kuala Lumpur for an emerg landing. They would be relying solely on the mag compass- probably in a dark cockpit with no com capability- all instrumentation having been destroyed in the equipment bay. Easy to get lost out over the Andaman Sea. A last ditch try might be to unsuccessfully use one's own cellphone to contact ground. Being totally lost at night over the ocean with NO instrumentation, would explain the strange course plotted by satellite. Perhaps the idea may have been the old tactic of travelling in a straight line until you find something you can identify. At some point emerg oxygen would run out and all souls aboard would die IF the aircraft was at altitude. How its final moments evolved without the 777 breaking up on contact with the sea, is for someone else to rationalize. But then again, this "Flying Dutchman", may yet be found to be somewhere else. january

Re the possibility of MH370 being hit by a meteoroid- the following is from Discover magazine - June 2009 - in reference to the Air France crash in the south Atlantic and a detailed analysis of the possibility of a meteor hit. "Anyway the meteor idea is not crazy, though not likely. The weather seems more likely to be at the root of the tragedy…but we may never know. One thing, though, is clear: if we keep flying big planes at high altitude, eventually one will get hit by a meteor." The little that is known about MH370 seems to fit such a scenario. january

Very informative- thanks Tom. BBC News reports today that Bluefin 21 is now two-thirds completed of its search for MH370. Ninth mission to start Monday. january

Bloomberg News reports Bluefin 21 has completed its 7th dive to the bottom with no apparent result. 8th dive underway, with now 50% of the target area covered. One has to wonder if perhaps MH370 may be somewhere else? january

Unmanned airplanes don't glide very well. Took all the skill of a very experienced Capt. Sullenberger to drop his airplane onto the flat calm waters of the Hudson River. A descending, out of fuel, airplane under control of auto pilot would likely see AP disconnect when it no longer met AP parameters such as speed / altitude etc january

The options for a plane going "into the drink" are either tail down as in a normal landing- but with gear not down - causing a tail strike OR- In stall attitude with the consequence of one wing drooping and contacting the water. In this scenario, aircraft disintegration is almost assured. Since no debris has been found, one would suspect a tail down water impact. We have no info as to whether (or IF) a human or auto pilot was managing the airplane at impact, so speculation is not very productive. For pictures of a 767 landing on a CALM ocean surface- see WikiPedia for Ethiopian Airlines FL 961 ditching due to fuel starvation, near the Comoros Islands and under human control. january

Yes and hard to visualize an airplane the size of a 777 not breaking up on impact with an always, at best, heaving sea surface. To visualize the impact, study the pics of the 777 crash at KSFO. The impact there would be very similar to that of a tail strike on touchdown with the ocean. Water (nor concrete) is not compressible. I still wonder what interesting items might be listed on the cargo manifest. january

Bloomberg News is reporting that Bluefin 21 has completed its 6th dive to the floor of the indian Ocean & suspected crash site - dive 7 underway. Also that the oil slick, found near this location, is NOT aircraft related. All of which raises questions as to whether FL 370 may yet be somewhere else- despite a few apparent pings from 'black boxes'. I wonder how many fiction writers are hard at work on novels about mysterious airliner disappearances? january

Perhaps because LM doesn't advertise? The purpose of editorial material is to separate the ads. No ads, no articles. january

Agreed- But that would be a good start!!! I think we have now beaten this poor horse to his knees! january

Why extreme accuracy? Simply being able to find a country would be a big step forward! How many teenagers today, could quickly put their map finger on the continent of Australia ? january

I have flown all over British Columbia in a real Cessna Citation as well as having 4x4d many mountain logging roads. Can't speak for FSX but FS9 is surprisingly accurate. But why not apply addon scenery for school/geography class use? I wonder how many school kids could find Malaysia on a map or globe? (Let alone Kuala Lumpur.) january

I wasn't aware that MSFS was inadequate for VFR. january

Who says the LEARNING has to be about aviation? I have long been mystified as to why MS never promoted FS as "learning tool" to teach geography. Imagine what might be learned about Malaysia, Beijing, Indonesia, Strait of Malacca & Australia !! To say nothing about one's own country. There should be a copy of FS in every classroom- oops sorry, FS is for entertainment only! january

My dictionary notes "Academic" as "a person engaged in scholarly pursuits." I would like to think that most flight simmers are such! Of course, those who do not wish to learn anything, should refrain from P3D in favour of FSX, which is for entertainment only & which prohibits users from learning anything. january