Austin Interview on Threshold

[mSparks 2,116]

6 hours ago, tonywob said:

come to that conclusion from a few vague comments on an interview,

"we hired some people from CEE"

= they went shopping across the world for the best art asset freelancers in the business (and they were cheap, although less so these days).

Edited June 25, 2020 by mSparks

[mp15 138]

my predictions...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mSparks 2,116]

55 minutes ago, mp15 said:

my predictions...

 

 

 

 

 

 

fsx is currently still more popular than xp11.

things dont move that fast.

I was also thinking most of the fsx users who will switch have probably already tried the alpha.

additionally, your prediction would seem to have more than 100% of windows users switching to mfs. mac users are not going to rush out and buy an xbox or switch to mobile, they want the best money can buy and have the budget to buy it.

Edited June 25, 2020 by mSparks

[mp15 138]

fsx users will go for MFS and a very few will remain as -other-

the operating system bars are just a rough representation and it is not made on a proportional scale.

[mSparks 2,116]

11 minutes ago, mp15 said:

fsx users will go for MFS and a very few will remain as -other-

the operating system bars are just a rough representation and it is not made on a proportional scale.

 

War Thunder

Month	Avg. Players	Peak Players
Last 30 Days	21,399.6	38,871

DCS World Steam Edition

Month	Avg. Players	% Gain
Last 30 Days	1,098.7	-11.86

 

Microsoft Flight Simulator X: Steam Edition

Month	Avg. Players	Peak Players
Last 30 Days	2,598.4	4,178

 

X-Plane 11

Month	Avg. Players	% Gain
Last 30 Days	2,078.3	-10.12%

Edited June 25, 2020 by mSparks

[mp15 138]

Thats right, if you look at my 2021 cakes, Xplane under all ages is bigger than DCS but it wont be that bigger when MFS comes out as many will switch X-plane to MFS.

Now the combat aviator likes combat and has already nice graphics there, I don-t see many DCS users switching to MFS.

Xplane will gain users back with time, around mid 2022 with the new Mobile enhancements and better graphics, as the dynamics and high FPS is already there.

[mSparks 2,116]

5 minutes ago, mp15 said:

Thats right, if you look at my 2021 cakes, Xplane under all ages is bigger than DCS but it wont be that bigger when MFS comes out as many will switch X-plane to MFS.

Now the combat aviator likes combat and has already nice graphics there, I don-t see many DCS users switching to MFS.

Xplane will gain users back with time, around mid 2022 with the new Mobile enhancements and better graphics, as the dynamics and high FPS is already there.

Pretty sure people switch to XP11 as soon as it works.

And you probably missed the WT update with 10 times as many players as all of them.

[mp15 138]

Some people become dizzy on macro numbers and inflate things all around, but in reality we are a few people in the virtual aviation world, so what I want to say is that, MFS is not going to change the world, It will have more users thanks to XBOX mainly but the division between graphics and dynamics will be solid, being eye candy a bigger feature than dynamics but it wont be a huge difference, that is my point, and as soon as LR resolves how to improve lighting and terrain, as well as the Mobile version becoming smooth, that is when X-plane will gain many users back, and if you think about it, only a few people in the world know how to fly properly but they will learn in MFS attracted by graphics and the whole world under your mouse, and then they will want and demand Dynamics and that's when X-plane becomes to grow like ever in the past.

There are different types of sales brains out there and I imagine MS has a good one for the MFS game, so I estimate that he will land around 50,000 sales in the first year, that is around 4,166 new users every month and most of them will repeat the experience so MFS will see around 20,000 users monthly and that-s because of the XBOX teenagers which they come and go as they play many other games as well.

I believe MFS will cost around $70 with the option to pay it monthly, that will be about $6 monthly with the credit card, and this will be backed by the MS Financial office.

Xplane will stay $59,99

 

[mSparks 2,116]

1 hour ago, mp15 said:

There are different types of sales brains out there and I imagine MS has a good one for the MFS game

I think its mostly marketing.

Microsoft execs don't really care if people pick up flight 2.0.2.0 crash into a few skyscrapers and then move onto the next gamepass game.

As long as it encourages anyone who has ever wanted to fly to buy an xbox, and it makes gamepass look more valuable.

Nothing against Asobo, they wouldnt be my pick for building a flight sim, but when it comes to MS beggers can't be choosers I guess.

Its the blue "MFS" I think is just to fast - if ever. Those fsx users are on ancient PCs or they would have already switched - and as I posted earlier xbox series x sales forecasts are not looking great atm, especially during a global depression.

Edited June 25, 2020 by mSparks

[tonywob 4,778]

4 hours ago, mSparks said:

"we hired some people from CEE"

Ah you mean the Eastern European comment... although I do prefer Poland where I am to be classed as Central Europe 😀. Yes we have talented developers and companies here, but it could be easily interpreted that he simply paid some people to make more landmarks cheaply. If the comment came from Ben Supnik then I'd certainly be excited. Without more concrete statements, we're simply guessing (and hopefully you're right)

 

[mp15 138]

Asobo made FUEL which has Guinness Book world-record certification as “Largest playable area in a console game" (14.000km2 – 5.500 square miles).

Buildings are probably ghost,  meaning you cannot crash any building, it will just fly through it and I don't think there will be wreck damage simulations.

Now the biggest feature of MFS is the world size and that is why weather partners are important, because the core and the main feature is the world itself, with possible extensions in a 3D Bing Map in terms of all sort of apps shining on this  data map, for example smart 5G cars and all sort of city smart lighting and insurance drones so forth and so on, now when the executive sharks meet at the highest stories of  the MS building apart from the fact that they scream to each other and they can also sound very nasty, for them is all about revenue. Now if you look at the mouse pointer, the tablet, the music device and mostly everything, MS seems to arrive always late to the party but they usually are the ones who are last to leave too, they can even promote ''easy software installations'' so that the third world individuals only know their OS and use it forever and even build on it, now look at google chrome who was the king, you can now get Edge Chrominium and it is a wonderful piece of software that just got baked, and Bing Search is default and it will suck most of Google navigators.

[mSparks 2,116]

26 minutes ago, tonywob said:

but it could be easily interpreted that he simply paid some people to make more landmarks cheaply

I am more than 95% certain "next gen scenery" means significantly more than just more landmarks. At the very least current gen scenery ala witcher 3 is implicit in such a statement.

plus he said we haven't seen any of it yet, and we got Dubai only recently.

Edited June 25, 2020 by mSparks

[tonywob 4,778]

2 minutes ago, mSparks said:

I am more than 95% certain "next gen scenery" means significantly more than just more landmarks.

You're taking what he says literally.. I think he's exaggerating/being over enthusiastic like he does in every interview. It takes a massive leap of faith to go from X-Plane 11 to something that resembles a next-gen game. 

It's good you have a lot of faith in Austin and LR, but I've sadly lost that over the years. I'd love to be proven wrong though and will eat my own words. I like the small-company and open feel of LR as opposed to the cold and corporate Microsoft, so I really want them to succeed

[mSparks 2,116]

16 minutes ago, tonywob said:

It takes a massive leap of faith

not really, I follow Ben, Sidney and Austin at any opportunity, intelligent, passionate guys I always learn something interesting from.

Ben and Sidney both made no secret that the plan was new up to date visuals once they could leverage the horsepower to draw them at the rate required by commercial users - and under no circumstances before that.

Bens latest comment on that seems to imply they are going to start making decisions on exactly what and when once beta 12 hits the servers - all being well.

I was fairly confident good scenery stuff was coming even before I heard who they were using.

Edited June 25, 2020 by mSparks

[Airfighter 150]

2 hours ago, tonywob said:

You're taking what he says literally.. I think he's exaggerating/being over enthusiastic like he does in every interview. It takes a massive leap of faith to go from X-Plane 11 to something that resembles a next-gen game. 

It's good you have a lot of faith in Austin and LR, but I've sadly lost that over the years. I'd love to be proven wrong though and will eat my own words. I like the small-company and open feel of LR as opposed to the cold and corporate Microsoft, so I really want them to succeed

Compare XP9 with XP10 and see how big of a leap it was. Now compare XP10 with XP11 and see. again, the big leap here. Now, standing on XP11, envision how big the leap will be, and if will land XP12 into "next gen game" territory. 

Most do not acknowledge this: Up to X-Plane 11 release (4 years ago), everything has to be written for OpenGL, and fit within 6 DVDs. And still X-Plane 11, in many aspects was a big leap. You also know that you have, within the next years, to re-write the whole graphics engine, and once you start doing so, you can't go back and add stuff to the sim. It is like building the foundations of a new house and someone wants to put in the furnitures! Now that Vulkan/Metal is closer to be "stable", will come the time to move to the next gen stuff.

If you give X-Plane, as is now, volumetric clouds and improved atmospheric lighting effects, you are almost there.

What we know so far. Ben said that XP11 was the last version that has that type of cloud rendering. We know that a much improved autogen is on the works. 11.50 beta users, might have noticed that there is a small improvement in atmospheric lighting. Not some that blows you away, but a start. Orthophotos... next X-Plane version, probably will be just compatible, so if Laminar provided or not, is almost irrelevant. And there more things that Laminar is already doing, which will be announced when they think is good to do so.

So, you don't need faith. Next X-Plane version (probably just X-Plane?) will be there with the next gen games!

And I leave you with this. Does MSFS has fantastic clouds? Yes sure. Can anyone else do it? Yes sure, should the norm from now on...