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michal

Peak Oil in Airways magazine:

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Has anyone read this yet or now much about it anyway? It seems quite alarming and ,as most gloomy predictions, is hard to evaluate unless it is actually happening/happened.Cheers

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I read that and it depressed me more than anything I've read in a while. I hope the guy is wrong - he predicts peak rates of extracting oil within a DECADE... and according to him would mean the worst rates of inflation and gas prices ever.Hope it's just an article meant to scare the powers that be and governments into action, but it seems too well researched to just be sensationalism..Let's hope he's off be 100 or 200 years ;-)

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I would not use this magazine as a reliable source for predicting oil situation, there are way better and qualified sources for that. I find their writing generally very good when it pertains to typical aviation related subjects but sometimes they get very political and biased in their coverage when the topic gives them opportunity to do so - I recall one of their articles on airport security got me so mad I even fired a protest to the editor (they printed it). Michael J.http://www.precisionmanuals.com/images/for...argo_hauler.gifhttp://sales.hifisim.com/pub-download/asv6-banner-beta.jpg

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Remember that they proclaimed with complete certainty that we'd run out of oil at current consumption rates in 20 years.Then remember that that claim was made 35 years ago at the then-current consumption rates (which were a lot lower than they are now).Also remember that the oil reserves we now know we have are several times larger than the ones we knew we had in 1970 and were the basis of those dire predictions.In fact such predictions are made with clockwork regularity and are always shown to be completely inaccurate not long after.This is leading some people to believe that there is some natural process that's rapidly replenishing oil reserves in some unknown fashion (and that the established wisdom that oil is created over aeons from decomposing plant matter is wrong), and in fact doing so at a rate that's greater than the rate at which oil is extracted.I don't quite buy that without further evidence, but the notion is an interesting one.

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There are cases of specific oil fields that should have been depleted giving oil from a different geological age. The term "fossil fuel" is in many opinions a misnomer. Supposedly hydrocarbons left over from the earth's formation seep up and are trapped by rock formations; not plant/animal matter seeping down.Best regards, Donald Traill:-waveFLYing? It's cool. Trillions of birds and insects can't be wrong.

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Could one of you flatlanders ;-) point me to a good article that debunks peak oil?Danny

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I'll follow Michael's suggestion here...Do you consider Alex Jones a reputable source? To me it appears Alex Jones' forte is paranormal 911 conspiracy stuff. Does he draw reasonable conclusions? It seems to me his theory on peak oil can never be disproved because he implies the real conclusive evidence is being withheld. Sure it's conceivable...logically possible and difficult to disprove..but not necessarily true...not a very usefull theory. Logically observations at the Eugene Island field do not suggest what we can expect to see in other locations...there is a burden of proof.Danny

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>I'll follow Michael's suggestion here...Do you consider Alex>Jones a reputable source? To me it appears Alex Jones' forte>is paranormal 911 conspiracy stuff. Character assassination! He wins you lose! You've lost your argument before even starting. :-lol >Does he draw reasonable conclusions? It seems to me his theory>on peak oil can never be disproved because he implies the real>conclusive evidence is being withheld.A theory is only good if it makes accurate observations AND can be used to accurately make predictions.The "Club of Rome" got it wrong - big time. Despite rising consumption rate the prediction failed. Oil may well be a finite resource, not sure I go along with the bottom up theory, But: the timing, creating an artificial scarcity, hasn't hurt the profits of the oil cartels nor the agenda of governments.> Sure it's conceivable...logically possible and difficult to>disprove..but not necessarily true...not a very usefull>theory. Au contraire! - Not only conceivable, logically possible, but, so far observation has failed to show any signs of scarcity of oil. The cartels are using the so called oil shortages to increase prices but at the same time their boosting supply quotas gives the impression that there is an abundance of oil reserves. One only has to look at the diamond industry as an example to see what happens when cartels with absolute control manipulate supply. > Logically observations at the Eugene Island field do>not suggest what we can expect to see in other>locations...there is a burden of proof."Any theory only exists in our minds. It is impossible to prove. No matter how many observations you make, the next observation may well be the one that disagrees with the theory. " - Stephen Hawkins.Whilst proving a theory is impossible disproving a theory is easy. All you have to do is find one observation or prediction that disagrees with the theory.I'm neutral in the debate as to whether oil originates top down or bottom up. That's immaterial to me. The fact is the Club of Rome got it hopelessly wrong. It's a bit like going to a doctor and being told "I've got bad news for you. You are dying". That's not bad news! We are all dying from the day we are born. The question is "How long have I got?" and then comes the bad news.Well we have outlived our doctors prognosis!. As to whether the "oil shortage" is actual or contrived, so far observation seems to favour the contrived argument. The oil producers seized on the initial theory of the Club of Rome and used it to drive up prices. By continuing to extend the time frame in small increments the "shortage" crisis artificially keeps profits high. When rationing of oil occurs and oil fields start running dry, then the case for running out of oil strengthens. But so far that hasn't happened. Cheers,Roger

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Hey Roger, Thanks for your response. I admit, I know nothing about Alex Jones...never heard of him before really.Sorry when I see so much space devoted to popular conspiracies...I see red. I'll leave each to decide for themselves about PrisonPlanet.I'll just point this out...>When rationing of oil occurs and oil fields start running dry, then the case for running out of oil strengthens.

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G'day Danny,>Alex Jones...never heard of him before really. That makes two of us ... :-lol>We're not taking about running out of oil. Yes they (Peak oil supporters) are. Instill the fear of god into the population that they won't be able to drive their cars. Create panic; which forces the prices high. > As (or if...if you like)the East starts>consuming oil the way we do in the West we are going to need>to be finding new oil at an unprecedented rate just "to stay>still". (india 1 billion china 1.3)>If we can't stay still...we'll end up on the back side of the>curve...and that will cause change.>Of course...I'm not convinced this is happening or has>happened...but it's worth considerable consideration.Better get used to the idea. Try as hard as you like the third world isn't going to remain supressed forever. Especially India and China, the two BIG movers in industrialisation and world economics.>Even if artificial scarcity and price gouging is taking place>it doesn't suggest to me peak oil is not a big issue.No at least not IMHO.History is on my side.Do you think Christopher Columbus ever envisaged a GPS? Did Edisson envisage an LED? Did Marconi envisage digital Television? or Anzanni envisage and RB 211 engine.Keep in mind the modern internal combustion engine is on 35% thermal efficiency. In my short life (60+) I was playing "Cowboys and Indians" as a child. At no time did I have any idea that at the same age my grandchildren would be playing "aliens" on an "X-Box" :-lol .So what's my point?. Simply this:-The mode of transport in the future (100 years) will bear scant resemblance to the cars of today. That I can say, but I can't even begin to imagine the form they will take.Peak oil is only a problem if one shackles oneself to the idea that 100 years from now people are going to be driving around in cars based on current technology. That will not be the case."Necessity is the mother of invention" - in the meantime lets bleed what we have for as much as we can. A bit of scare mongering does wonders in that regard. Cheers,Roger

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Hopefully the doubters will listen to Chevron:www.willyoujoinus.com "The Era of Easy Oil is over", Chevron.Or maybe the doubters will listen to an airline pilot:www.oildecline.com"Global Oil Production is Peaking and Civilization as we know it today is in big trouble. Our Society is in a state of collective denial that has no precedent in history" - Airline PilotIgnore them at your peril ;)

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>Ignore them at your peril ;)I will ignore the alarmistic "Peak Oil" but won't ignore the Chevron's. In fact if anyone watches the KQED there was recently a discussion with Exxon-Mobil's CEO conducted by Charlie Rose exactly on the topic of oil scarcity. Those scared by the nonsense propagated by "Peak Oil" would do well to listen to this calm conversation that doesn't seek to generated headlines but instead to inform people what the dynamics of the oil industry are and what can be expected in the future.Michael J.http://www.precisionmanuals.com/images/for...argo_hauler.gifhttp://sales.hifisim.com/pub-download/asv6-banner-beta.jpg

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