**Hurricane Katrina- 2nd Lowest Pressure Ever?**

[Sonar5 3]

Now Strongest EVER Hurricane in Gulf of MexicoFrom:http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/Jef...1&tstamp=200508The 6:30pm EDT NOAA Hurricane Hunter mission found a central pressure of 904 mb, up from the 902 measured at 3:30pm. These pressures make Katrina the fourth strongest hurricane ever, and the strongest hurricane ever observed in the Gulf of Mexico, surpassing Camille. However, the winds of Katrina are 165 mph, far from Camille's 190 mph winds at landfall.Although the pressure has stopped falling, there is no indication that Katrina is about to undergo weakening, like we saw yesterday during her eyewall replacement cycle. When that cycle started, the eye diameter was 9 nm, but the present eye diameter is 28 nm. Eyewall replacement cycles usually begin when the eye shrinks below 10 nm, and there are no indications that Katrina's eye is going to shrink.The list of strongest hurricanes of all time now reads:Hurricane Gilbert (888 mb, 1988)The Great Labor Day Hurricane (892 mb, 1935)Hurricane Allen (899 mb, 1980)Hurricane Katrina (902 mb, 2005)Hurricane Camille (905 mb, 1969)Landfall location and intensityKatrina has continued to expand in size, and now rivals Hurricane Gilbert and Hurricane Allen as the largest hurricanes in size. When hurricanes reach such enormous sizes, they tend to create their own upper-air environment, making them highly resistant to external wind shear. The global computer models are not really hinting at any wind shear that might affect Katrina before landfall, and the only thing that might weaken her is an eyewall replacement cycle. Even if one of these happens in the next 12 hours, the weakest Katrina is likely to get before landfall is a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Katrina is so huge and powerful that she will still do incredible damage even at this level. The track forecast has not changed significantly, and the area from New Orleans to the Mississippi-Louisiana border is going to get a catastrophic blow. I put the odds of New Orleans getting its levees breached and the city submerged at about 70%. This scenario, which has been discussed extensively in literature I have read, could result in a death toll in the thousands, since many people will be unable or unwilling to get out of the city. I recommend that if you are trapped in New Orleans tomorrow, that you wear a life jacket and a helmet if you have them. High rise buildings may offer good refuge, but Katrina has the potential to knock down a high-rise building. A 25 foot storm surge and 30 - 40 foot high battering waves on top of that may be able to bring down a steel-reinforced high rise building. I don't believe a high rise building taller than six stories has ever been brought down by a hurricane, so this may not happen Monday, either. We are definitely in unknown waters with Katrina.*********On another Note, US Crude futures opened up $4.67 a barrel. If you havn't gassed up, do it now. You won't be happy tomorrow.

[Guest B1900 Mech]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html Wow:-(

[Sonar5 3]

>OK, whatever you say.....:) Well, david I said this earlier this morning:On another Point, fill up your cars with gas no matter where you are today. The rigs will sustain damage as they have in the past, and with prices where they are, they will go higher.Fill up with gas today, not tomorrow, for tomorrow they will spike throughout the week, IMHO.And Now Crude has already spiked through the roof. I hope you took my advice earlier. :-)

[OHN 1]

For those interested outside the US you can watch live coverage of this hurricane at http://www.wwltv.com/.OHN

[AWACS 12]

Joe,You're really keeping an eye on this thing aren't you?It's about time there might be some good surfing in the Gulf!Jeff

[Sonar5 3]

Jeff, I've been following it all day. Except for when I went out for gas, and meals.One of the BOUY's I've been monitoring has been out of service for at leasts two Hours, number 42001.BOUY 42001http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?...1&unit=E&tz=PSTThis one is still up:42040MOBILE SOUTH 64 nm South of Dauphin Island, ALhttp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true ) Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 36.9 kts Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 48.6 kts Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 29.5 ftMost interesting is the wave height. Not Good.****** Jeff, this is a lifetime event for those experiencing it. I'v enever seen a storm this big, an dthat pressure readings. I think that last 160 mph reading is a fluke, since the pressure didn't change much.Prayers are needed at this point for those who had to stay there or chose to stay there.

[Sonar5 3]

Fox News Channel just read the same statement I posted HOURS ago, Verbatim.

[Sonar5 3]

Latest Pressure right from the aircraft907 mb.Winds 166.75 mph Converted from Knots.30 Mile wide Width of the Eye. Tornadic storms east.Air Force guy said another Camille but in a larger sense. He's near the eye.FNC

[Guest Ken_Salter]

Hey All:As some of you know, I live in Mobile, and we are looking at getting up to 100 mph winds, and we are 120 miles away from New Orleans.It is amazing what the news (especially local) is saying...a lot of potential over-exageration here (hopefully)The winds are down to 160 or so, and some forecasts are saying maybe a slight weakening because it looks like an eyewall replacement cycle is in progress.No matter what, this is going to be bad and while I'm glad it isn't coming to Mobile directly, I feel really bad for one of my favorite cities.One man's blessing is another man's curse, I guess.I am on dial-up now and will try to check in until I lose power (if, but problably).

[Sonar5 3]

Hi Ken,Also check your messages here.Glad to here you are ok. Hope and pray you stay that way as well.An ERC is unlikely to help at this point, from what I read, and may be too late for it. The reason is the eye is forecasted at about 30 miles wide, and you need a much smaller eye wall from what I have been reading about this.I also don't trust the wind forecast. With pressure at 904.REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...27.6 N... 89.4 W. MOVEMENTTOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINEDWINDS...160 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 904 MB.That 160 latest is old based on a not reliable reading.Read This about the last reading: Trust the Pressure not the winds. Please stay safe, and I have prayers for you and your family.Joe000WTNT42 KNHC 290249TCDAT2HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005 THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA. THE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE. THEPRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT. ON THEOTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...ORSFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITEDDROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT. THERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR ATTHESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENTADJUSTMENT FOR NOW.THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVERTHE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTEREYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOWA LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALLIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERECOULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS ISRELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF ATLEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALLREPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY AREGENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THATEVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THATEXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THEINITIAL MOTION IS 335/9. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURNNORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH ALARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCEREMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BITEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FORTHE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACKANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT.

[Sonar5 3]

Good Location for wind data once this one hits folks.It's called BURL1 Station, Normally manned.Station BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LAThere is also a Graph you can click on, but not posting it to save bandwidth. It shows the trends.http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1Conditions at BURL1 as of(8:00 pm PDT on 08/28/2005)0300 GMT on 08/29/2005:Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true ) Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 63 kts Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 70 kts Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.16 in Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.17 in ( Falling Rapidly )

[Sonar5 3]

Off to bed for a few hours anyway. Prayers for all in the path.

[Dillon 2,197]

I agree Sonar5, I hope there's no casualties as there's been plenty of advanced notice. Take Care all those from New Orleans...

[Guest Ken_Salter]

Well, still here for now. Winds are gusting pretty decent now and power has flickered a couple of times.Katrina is on land w/ 140 mph winds. If it still goes north, I may escape with just cat 1 speeds. If it heads north east, well, it will be worse.I hope everyone in New Orleans makes it with no loss of life. Material possessions can be replaced.Hopefully I will be able to get on a little later.

[RFields5421 1]

I sat in my uncle's home in Ama during Betsy. That's up the river and on the west bank about straight across from KMSY. The city of New Orleans had 7 feet of water from that storm, it took the pumps about 18 hours to clear it out.When Camile hit the gulf coast I was again in the New Orleans area and was working on the cleanup effort within 24 hours.There is no doubt this storm is dangerous and there is a great potential for devastation in New Orleans.But Bay St Louis, Gulfport and Biloxi are also dangerous places to be today. The most dangerous place for any hurricane, typhoon or cyclone is not where the eye crosses but about 30 miles to the east where the impact of the winds and storm surge is focused and multiplied by the forward motion of the storm.Unlike those cites, New Orleans is not on the ocean - but has a buffer of about 30-40 miles of marsh.Storm surge and waves is a much greater threat to the Mississippi coast than to New Orleans.Tornados can occur in any storm, but they will be stronger and more frequent when the hurricane's moisture hits the cooler weather farther north. The middle of Mississippi may well be hit.The big threat to New Orleans is rain of course. Rising water is something humans cannot stop.As demonstrated in the storms and significant loss of life in Europe last week.One of the things which occurs at New Orleans is that storms like this actually reverse the flow of the Mississippi River. And the water is still coming downstream from the rest of the US.I'm sure the river is being diverted into the Atchafalaya - up river about 50 miles north of Baton Rouge - and there is another channel and spillway system to divert the river into Lake Ponchatrain above New Orleans.End of the world event - no, New Orleans will have a lot of damage, but will survive. There will be loses of life, there will be flooding, there will be massive economic disruption. But Nawlins will go on.BTW Ken - did you do Dauphine Island ? I love that. I'd really like to have a home on Dauphine - but would not want to be there today!!!