P3D ecosystem at risk?

[matmouls 0]

Hi everyone,

Has anyone considered the impact of MSFS on the P3D ecosystem ?

I fear that MSFS2020 arrival on the sim market draws out new customers from P3D significantly. This will result for addon dev who are not clearly on MSFS boat (FlightsimLabs for ex) a huge drop of sales, causing money shortage and possibly their death.

Remember that as customers we are not anymore physical owner of the product: we just purchased a license ownership (a license that must be activated by the addon provider).  We might have severe disappointments when these P3D addons company will die, because they will: We won’t have any possibilities to activate online the addon and won’t be able to use it anymore.

In my opinion this fact will accelerate the death of the old platform ecosystem.

I fear that MSFS2020 arrival on the sim market draws out new customers from P3D. This will result for addon developper who are not clearly on MSFS boat (FlightsimLabs for ex) a huge drop of sales, causing money shortage and possibly their death. These companies are small and rely on fresh cashflow for their new products investments.

Remember that as customers we are not anymore physical owner of the product: we just purchased a license ownership (a license that must be activated by the addon provider).

We might have severe disappointments when these P3D addons companies will disappear ! We won’t have any possibilities to activate online the addons we purchased and won’t be able to use it anymore.

In my opinion this fact will accelerate the migration movement toward FS.

[micstatic 4,336]

Fslabs will likely continue supporting P3d for a very long time. Heck it might be over a year until they have any of their planes in msfs.  V4 would probably lose support before v5.  Right now msfs lacks things needed for the more serious ifr flyers. If I’m worried about anything it’s airport availability and new aircraft coming out in P3d.  However we have a catalog of available now products that dwarfs any other sim. So enjoy it. 

[threexgreen 3,151]

If any third party developer developing for P3D starts to get into trouble because the platform loses users they will adapt to the change in the market and switch development over to MSFS. There are already 400 developers working on MSFS products and many who are developing for both P3D and MSFS. Given how developers are embracing MSFS I can't see many, if any, going down because they stick with P3D and don't touch MSFS for whatever reason. If P3D loses users like in your scenario, it's really the developer's own choice: stick with P3D and suffer from a decrease in sales or adapt and start to develop for MSFS. As time goes on the market changes and players need to adapt. That's just how it works and I don't see why I would worry about it.

[Wobbie 938]

I doubt very much if LM would loose any of their corporate training clients such as RedBird & others to an entertainment product. Those developing professional training products will stay, the others will adapt.So the P3D professional ecosystem will stay.

[David Vega 348]

I wonder what the FS9 devs and users did after FSX came out. 

Clearly some folks (developers and customers) will quietly transition, some faster than others.  Some developers will offer discounts for previous customers, others won't.  Some will resist transition until a point where they abandon the hobby.  But the majority will change just as we saw from FS1 to now.  

There is no issue, no conflict, nothing to be afraid of.  

[DaveCT2003 1,820]

Well, I ran Nortons and my P3D Ecosystem was fine, not risks detected due to MSFS or anything else!

 

 

Sorry, I just couldn't resist.

 

[Patco Lch 1,474]

Oh well. As a V5 user I have enough planes, sceneries and utility addons to keep me busy for the rest of my life. I'll just use my sim funds for something else.

[LHookins 3,104]

1 hour ago, Wobbie said:

I doubt very much if LM would loose any of their corporate training clients such as RedBird & others to an entertainment product. Those developing professional training products will stay, the others will adapt.So the P3D professional ecosystem will stay.

As good as MSFS looks and as much as I enjoy flying in it, in its current state I can't imagine it being used for corporate flight training. Third parties might step up to the plate and create content with sufficient fidelity to allow actual flight training, but I'm not sure how quickly this will happen.  MSFS still has a lot of rough edges.

I suspect that Lockheed Martin will find a way to incorporate streaming scenery now that Microsoft has demonstrated its feasibility. When this happens I'll be right at the front of the line to purchase.  

Keep in mind that Asobo is limited by what can be done with Bing data, while Lockheed Martin is not.  

P3D and MSFS are really serving two different markets.  I'm quite happy that MSFS will bring new people into the hobby, but I really prefer the more professional approach of P3D.  I'm not bashing either sim, each has its strengths and weaknesses, and P3D is not going to go away no matter what MSFS does.  If P3D had streaming scenery right now, I wouldn't be flying MSFS at all.

Hang in there because I think the future will be very bright indeed.  

Hook

[Wobbie 938]

Indeed! LM might even decide that streaming scenery is not an essential addition for their clients.

The very large pro sims that Boeing, Airbus & the other huge airlines do very well without streaming scenery. 

[LHookins 3,104]

12 minutes ago, Wobbie said:

The very large pro sims that Boeing, Airbus & the other huge airlines do very well without streaming scenery. 

It's not like they ever had the option before.  🙂  

Streaming scenery would be even more beneficial to clients like Redbird.  It would even be useful in military training simulations.  

Besides, I think Lockheed Martin could do a better job than Microsoft/Asobo.

Hook

[PurdueKev 159]

I think a couple of the follow-on comments (or ones in similar threads in other places) are missing the point that I believe the OP is bringing up.

The issue isn't whether P3D itself (or L-M sim business) is under much threat or won't be further developed - their large clients will really just continuing doing what meets their needs. Much of the commercially-available "add-on ecosystem" content (which is what I think the OP is referring to) is not generally relevant to what they are doing, with a few exceptions. If L-M has a need in their business to continue developing and iterating the platform for those clients or for their internal needs, and if it makes business sense for them, they will.

But most add-on developers will go where the money is - they are businesses after all. It won't matter which sim might be "better," it will be where can they obtain the most profit for their efforts?  The hobbyist community that has latched on to P3D has had the luxury of a consistent drumbeat of addons for this platform for many years, because of a lack of compelling alternatives.  If MSFS develops a large following on the scale of even a moderately successful gaming franchise, then interest from add-on developers is likely to sharply decrease unless they are partially funded by commercial contracts from large clients of L-M. That would mean a reduction in high-quality payware content for the platform.

Edited August 29, 2020 by PurdueKev

[dukeav 46]

Definitely quite a few will be in trouble. Even if they want to jump over to develop for MSFS, I don’t think they will have anything to sell.

 

Scenery, terrain, airports, airport services, weather, camera management, all are at next gen level just out-of-the-box in MSFS.

 

I personally don’t see myself buying anything in these categories for MSFS. The base product is already too good in them.

 

From another perspective, when I have re-install P3D, I have re-install a quite lot of 3rd party stuff just make the sim look visually appealing. Vector, Regions, Terrain, etc etc. Nothing of that is required for MSFS.

 

MSFS is like when Uber came around. It is going to wipe out quite a few existing businesses.

 

So what is left is 3rd party aircraft. Those will come, no doubt, and have a market in MSFS.

[Wobbie 938]

dukeav, that's very simplistic. 

I'm sure that you are aware that there are already new sceneries and airports, both free and payware, available already? 

[dukeav 46]

6 minutes ago, Wobbie said:

dukeav, that's very simplistic. 

I'm sure that you are aware that there are already new sceneries and airports, both free and payware, available already? 

I am not buying anything of that sort in MSFS. There is no need. And I bough a ton of stuff in P3D. That’s the point. 

[LHookins 3,104]

21 minutes ago, PurdueKev said:

But most add-on developers will go where the money is

The installed base of MSFS is likely to be huge, larger than all the other sims put together.  That's going to create a very large market.  The question is, will there still be a market for add-ons for the other sims, or at least a market large enough to be worthwhile to continue to serve?

Not all add-on developers are happy with MSFS.  I've been really surprised at the amount of negativity I've heard.  I don't know what all is going on behind the scenes, but It's more than we know about.  Some of these guys don't want to go to MSFS, but know they may eventually be forced to.

I suspect Lockheed Martin will be going to a streaming scenery model simply to stay competitive.  If they don't, what will they give us in P3Dv6?  Will there even be a v6?  I actually have high hopes for it.

I think Lockheed Martin can lure the serious market back from MSFS.  This will keep the P3D ecosystem alive, although there may be some lean times for a while.  As for their corporate clients, they can see MSFS just like we can, and they may be requesting streaming scenery.  Time will tell.

Hook