3 hours ago, WingZ said:

As ever, much ado about nothing.

 

In the sea, where it was 99% likely to end up despite the hysteria of the news cycle.

Wellington will be destroyed by an earthquake, not a rocket. 😁 

If not blown away....like the day the Wahini sank........trees and roofs everyway.  But a nice day  in Wellington takes a lot of beating.

Now Auckland volcano is more likely.

36 minutes ago, harrry said:

Now Auckland volcano is more likely.

 

Despite visiting Auckland, I had no idea there was such a thing ad the Auckland Volcanic Filed until I just googled. Hundreds to thousands of year between eruptions but could occur at any time. Yikes! 😲

21 hours ago, martin-w said:

I wonder how China would react if one of their next 10 boosters landed smack in the middle of Beijing?

20 minutes ago, n4gix said:

I wonder how China would react if one of their next 10 boosters landed smack in the middle of Beijing?

 

They would deny it happened and say it was western propaganda. 

9 hours ago, harrry said:

Now Auckland volcano is more likely.

Nah the South Island will tear itself in half as the Pacific Plate heads to Antarctica: 75% chance within 50 years.

Goes some way in explaining the laid-back responses in NZ over the last few days, about some Chinese space junk landing a 1 in billion shot at obliterating the kitchen

"It would be very disappointing if it lands on my place before I have finished the cheesecake in the fridge," one said.

What have I got to lose anyway #fyp #chineserocket #nz #pickme (tiktok.com)

Considering that the Space Shuttle Columbia broke up on reentry over Texas and that entire structure rained down all over Texas and Louisiana killing NO ONE on the ground, this thing is far far far less a risk compared to many other things, You are far more likely to be killed by a plane crashing on you from the sky then from this thing and that is very unlikely too.

What ever pieces left of this thing was probably no bigger then a can of coke and is now in the ocean, we can stop worrying now, the media drives me crazy 🤣

31 minutes ago, Matthew Kane said:

What ever pieces left of this thing was probably no bigger then a can of coke and is now in the ocean, we can stop worrying now, the media drives me crazy 🤣

 

Somebody in the Maldives filmed it and it was said to be a substantial chunk of the booster. 

And of course, quite recently, the booster from the first Long March rocket DID hit buildingS and caused damage. So don't dismiss the chances of a fatality or further damage to property as "one in a billion" because that assumption isn't accurate.

If it hit buildings a few months ago and there are ten more that will be left to enter the atmosphere un controlled, we would be foolish to dismiss the risk.

9 hours ago, n4gix said:

I wonder how China would react if one of their next 10 boosters landed smack in the middle of Beijing?

Given their history with dropping rockets on villages, they may not care much unless it hit a VIP's house.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/11/china-keeps-dropping-toxic-rocket-parts-on-its-villages/

11 hours ago, n4gix said:

I wonder how China would react if one of their next 10 boosters landed smack in the middle of Beijing?

One can only live in hope !!

3 hours ago, goates said:

"The safety standards used in Chinese space launch would leave American regulators apoplectic," Autry wrote in Space News. "As is the case in many global industries, this lax approach to environmental standards and human safety promises to provide China with a significant cost advantage over more responsible and highly regulated American firms."

So just follow the money trail, it will generally lead you to the reason behind righteous indignation. 🙂

But on balance, NASA is quite right to harumph and indulge in finger-wagging.
The world's leadership has a pretty poor record of focussing on its latest toy to the exclusion of all else.
Especially when it comes to dropping nasty things on an unsuspecting populace:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLCF7vPanrY&t=175s

If you don't have time for the whole saga, start at 12:00 and see what who's been up to.

It's essentially mind boggling.

12 hours ago, martin-w said:

If it hit buildings a few months ago and there are ten more that will be left to enter the atmosphere un controlled, we would be foolish to dismiss the risk.

I will be dismissing the risk, getting hit by lightening is far better odds

2 hours ago, Matthew Kane said:

I will be dismissing the risk, getting hit by lightening is far better odds

 

Not the point. Its not about you as an individual. The risk might be low for you as an individual, but there are 7,874,965,825 people on this planet. Much better odds for one of them to get hit. 

To consider your lightning analogy, the average number of deaths by lightning per year is 51 human beings. And structural damage amounts to $451 million just in the US. 

Its not just about human beings being in danger, its damage to property too. 

The point, is that the risk could have been mitigated with a little effort, like the rest of the space faring nations bother to do. And a few months ago, that "not bothering" resulted in structural damage. So its not a case of it probably wont happen because its unlikely, it DID happen, property WAS damaged. And with ten more to be launched the risk of structural damage or worse is clearly higher than many in this thread seem to assume. 

 

Edited May 10, 20215 yr by martin-w