This Cat 5 hurricane is currently just off the south coast of Jamaica and will cross the island in the next 6 hours.

Central pressure is 977hPa which isn’t particularly low compared to North Atlantic depressions but the winds and rainfall will of course be catastrophic.

Around 3ft (36”) of rain is expected to fall which is around the annual rainfall for England.

I can’t begin to imagine what it must be like there. Good luck and stay safe.

 

The danger in coastal areas is obvious.  Jamaica is extremely mountainous and hilly so the potential for devastating land slides is very real.  Keep the people of Jamaica in your thoughts.

Thanks for the update Ray.

3 hours ago, Ray Proudfoot said:

Central pressure is 977hPa which isn’t particularly low compared to North Atlantic depressions but the winds and rainfall will of course be catastrophic.

Quite the contrary - the central pressure is one of the lowest ever recorded in a storm in the Atlantic @ 896mb, and will be the second lowest ever recorded at landfall if it maintains that intensity. 

List of Atlantic hurricane records - Wikipedia

I think the pressure map you showed simply doesn't have the resolution to show just how deep the pressure goes in the eye.

Here's some great footage of the eye - beautiful / terrifying:

 

10 minutes ago, enright said:

Quite the contrary - the central pressure is one of the lowest ever recorded in a storm in the Atlantic @ 896mb, and will be the second lowest ever recorded at landfall if it maintains that intensity. 

I just checked ATIS for Montego Bay and four hours ago it was 998hPa which matches the chart above. But from Wiki I can see the pressure was much lower earlier.

NHC is reporting a central pressure of 892mb this morning at 1100EDT. I think Wilma is the record at 882.

Cheers

 

36 minutes ago, Luke said:

NHC is reporting a central pressure of 892mb this morning at 1100EDT. I think Wilma is the record at 882.

This would tie the record for the lowest pressure at landfall, held by the "labor day" storm of 1935, which had a storm surge so high that Islamorada was completely submerged. Image of the FEC railway below, which was 30 ft above sea level:

  

If there's any good news, it's that during this same storm, the max sustained winds in Key West, just a few dozen miles away, were only 45mph (vs. 200mph in the eye wall)... So perhaps Kingston will similarly be spared the worst of Melissa's wrath. 

My wife and I have vacationed in Islamorada several times.  There are still remnants of the old Flagler Railroad bridge there.  It was destroyed in the hurricane. 

BTW, some of the best fishing in the world there.

Here's some great footage of the eye - beautiful / terrifying:

 

Wow!!! Towering walls of clouds, i know it's 'only' air but it's indeed terrifying.

Oh thanks for reminding me, I’ll have to go fly into it with the A340 and see what happens.

Well that was disappointing, MKJS in A340 with live weather … weather looked nasty, lighting everywhere, hard rain, clouds moving very rapidly (visually stunning) … but … almost zero turbulence (tiny bit-o-wing-flex).  In MSFS 2024, Turbulence was set to “Realistic”.  Any edits/hacks to get turbulence to work in MSFS 2024?

On 10/29/2025 at 11:22 AM, SayAgain said:

Well that was disappointing, MKJS in A340 with live weather … weather looked nasty, lighting everywhere, hard rain, clouds moving very rapidly (visually stunning) … but … almost zero turbulence (tiny bit-o-wing-flex).  In MSFS 2024, Turbulence was set to “Realistic”.  Any edits/hacks to get turbulence to work in MSFS 2024?

This has been a long time sim problem with hurricanes.  Weather stations might not be accurate or down in the middle of a storm.  You get inconsistent data and sims that aren't specifically written to model those extreme conditions.  There's also simply not as many weather stations, and the next island over might be reporting much improved conditions.  

I think many have tried checking out hurricanes in various sims and usually run into the same issues (at least that I'm aware of).  

1 hour ago, kerosene31 said:

You get inconsistent data and sims that aren't specifically written to model those extreme conditions.

Not sure that is the case, MSFS 2024 was visually depicting the Hurricane reasonably well ... the clouds were moving FAST, rains was coming down very hard and almost sideways, very dark clouds, just hardly any turbulence or even cross winds or much of any wind.  MSFS was getting the weather station data and seemed to be getting the wind data, hence the very rapidly moving clouds and almost horizontal rain, just very little impact on the aircraft.  

Maybe it's a aircraft specific issue (which it should NOT be) ... I know A2A Aerostar 600 recommend setting MSFS 2024 to realistic and then they have an additional Turbulence setting (recommend about 60%) ... I set it to 90% which seem more accurate based on Navigraph wind data for the location ... but this is specific to A2A Aerostar 600 only.

I typically seek harsh weather for my flights, so far, the only aircraft that seems to work with MSFS 2024 live weather is the A2A Aerostar 600 in terms of wind impact on the aircraft.  I don't use any other weather add-ons, I might experiment with them since this lack of turbulence/wind implementation is a bit disappointing.

Hopefully MS/Asobo will take a look at their wind implementation for live weather.

1 hour ago, SayAgain said:

Not sure that is the case, MSFS 2024 was visually depicting the Hurricane reasonably well ... the clouds were moving FAST, rains was coming down very hard and almost sideways, very dark clouds, just hardly any turbulence or even cross winds or much of any wind.  MSFS was getting the weather station data and seemed to be getting the wind data, hence the very rapidly moving clouds and almost horizontal rain, just very little impact on the aircraft.  

Maybe it's a aircraft specific issue (which it should NOT be) ... I know A2A Aerostar 600 recommend setting MSFS 2024 to realistic and then they have an additional Turbulence setting (recommend about 60%) ... I set it to 90% which seem more accurate based on Navigraph wind data for the location ... but this is specific to A2A Aerostar 600 only.

I typically seek harsh weather for my flights, so far, the only aircraft that seems to work with MSFS 2024 live weather is the A2A Aerostar 600 in terms of wind impact on the aircraft.  I don't use any other weather add-ons, I might experiment with them since this lack of turbulence/wind implementation is a bit disappointing.

Hopefully MS/Asobo will take a look at their wind implementation for live weather.

I've often wondered if MSFS has code in place to "smooth out" rough edges in weather.  Extreme weather has not been something it has ever been good with.  A lone of strong t-storms in real life can be some rain and a few flashes of lightning.  It wouldn't even surprise me if there's code to take a 180 knot wind gust and throw it out as not valid.  In the real world, storms are deadly, but MSFS has never modeled it well.  

The fact that it models the clouds isn't surprising, you can see the hurricane on the globe before you even spawn in.  

I use default weather now, but I've tried addons in the past and I don't remember any modeling a hurricane properly.  

Turbulence does exist in the game.  Fly over hills/low mountains on a hot day and your plane will bounce all over.  Same can happen in the active Florida/Caribbean air.  I've had flights where the autopilot can't even hold the plane level.  

I also bought the Black Square Baron and Bonanza and picked an airport to try a quick pattern.  Turns out, there was a 30 knot crosswind that made it almost impossible to control the plane.  Those conditions absolutely exist in MSFS.  

It is frustrating, because sometimes the weather engine can be super accurate, other times, completely wrong.  I remember there was a weekend where my local area was socked in with constant rain, low clouds and poor visibility.  Perfect IFR practice weather.  Yet all weekend?  Sunny with a few scattered clouds.  The weather was totally wrong all weekend, with no reason why.  

Edited October 30, 2025Oct 30 by kerosene31