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MartinRex007

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About MartinRex007

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    San Diego
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    Flying, sailing, photography, fishing!

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About Me

  • About Me
    Senior Research Epidemiologist Naval Health Research Center.

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  1. Yes, the media can seem to make things more difficult to understand, I was mainly referring to what is appearing in the scientific journals which will be the basis of how we get this pandemic under control. I know that data is not easily accessible or understandable by the majority, but it's good to know it's beginning to paint a more complete picture of what the world is up against. Martin P.S. Noel, a race to get a new vaccine out before the election, what possibly could go wrong.
  2. There is now some good evidence based data on the biology, epidemiology and treatment protocols for COVID-19 coming out daily. The data speaks for itself, no need to speculate like in the beginning of this pandemic. It is what it is! Martin
  3. Thanks for staying with the Covid-19 thread.

    Putting quasi-science and quasi-intelligent comments in their place amounts to a public service.

    Cheers,
    Charl

  4. From the CDC report "New data on COVID-19 is available daily; information about its biological and epidemiological characteristics remain limited, and uncertainty remains around nearly all parameter values.". I'll say it again, don't read to much into it! It's a lot more deadly, concludes a new study by the University of Washington published May 7 in the journal Health Affairs. The study's results also project a grim future if the U.S. doesn't put up a strong fight against the spread of the virus. The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus -- SARS-CoV-2 -- that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%. https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200518144915.htm Martin
  5. The report shown above is five "COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios that are designed to help inform decisions by modelers and public health officials who utilize mathematical modeling. The five planning scenarios are being used by mathematical modelers throughout the Federal government. Models developed using the data provided in the planning scenarios can help evaluate the potential effects of different community mitigation strategies (e.g., social distancing)." "The scenarios are intended to advance public health preparedness and planning. They are not predictions or estimates of the expected impact of COVID-19." Really only useful for modeling and planning, I wouldn't read to much into them? Martin
  6. I suspect we will see in the next 6 to 8 weeks in the US more states reporting an increase in new cases, however the important metric to look for is the average positivity rate, because with more testing you will see more cases, so the percentage of those tests that were positive gives a better indication of what is going on in the local communities. Texas reported on April 13th their positivity rate was around 13%, now they are reporting a positivity rate of 5%, this indicates (assuming a random sample) that Texas has sufficient testing capabilities for the size of their outbreak and is testing enough of its population to make informed decisions. A high positivity rate may indicate that a given state is only testing the sickest patients seeking medical attention, and not testing enough of the population to determine how much the virus is spreading within its communities. Going from a 13% to 5% positivity rate is actually a good sign. Martin
  7. Actually the illegal crossing on our Southern Border are pretty low right now. From the Border Patrol website: "In Fiscal Year (FY) 2020 To Date (TD), during the month of April, a total of 1,146 individuals were apprehended between ports of entry on our Southwest Border", Compare this to folks arriving from around the world during this pandemic and I suspect it's negligible as far as COVID-19 is concerned. Like Alan eludes to, it's community spread which is the issue now. If we had caught this outbreak earlier, than any case arriving legally or illegally from another country would of been of concern. They have just recently put in place tighter border crossing requirements here along San Diego, the irony was Mexico was accusing the Americans for bringing COVID-19 into Mexico. Martin
  8. In the US the next 6 to 8 weeks will be very telling? Martin
  9. I suspect this pandemic will be studied for years with the hope of coming up with better models to help with the next pandemic. Less hope so! Martin
  10. Yes, I was reading some of those short comings. I think because of the number of folks that needed to be vaccinated was the justification, but it definitely had its draw backs. I hope what they use today is much better if they even use them anymore? Martin
  11. There are some good examples like New Zealand which locked down hard and early and have reported no new cases. During a novel pandemic that might prove to be the wise choice. Much like a wildfire, your only chance is get ahead of it while it's still a small fire. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/05/how-new-zealand-brought-new-coronavirus-cases-down-to-zero.html Martin
  12. My graduate advisor Dr. Abram Benenson was instrumental in the design and implementation of the Automatic Jet Hypodermic Injection Gun used by the military for doing multiple vaccine inoculations at once. Some of you might remember the Ped-O-Jet. https://jetinfectors.com/category/military-jet-injections/page/4/ Martin
  13. I'm a strong advocate of vaccines but history has shown the need as Alan has pointed out to move cautiously. "Deaths Following Vaccination: What does the evidence show?" https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4599698/ Martin
  14. I would hesitate to favor a mandatory program but it looks like there is precedence? "Is Mandatory Vaccination Legal in TIme of Epidemic" Jacobson v Massachusetts 1905 Supreme Court decision. https://journalofethics.ama-assn.org/article/mandatory-vaccination-legal-time-epidemic/2006-04 Summary of the "Police Power" reference "The doctrine of state “police power” was adopted in early colonial America from firmly established English common law principles mandating the limitation of private rights when needed for the preservation of the common good. It was one of the powers reserved by the states with the adoption of the federal Constitution." Martin
  15. Interesting side note regarding the laws we now have regarding HIV. During the early years of the HIV epidemic, a number of states implemented HIV-specific criminal exposure laws. Some of these state laws criminalize behavior that cannot transmit HIV and apply regardless of actual transmission. As of 2019, 34 states had laws that criminalize HIV exposure. https://www.cdc.gov/hiv/policies/law/states/exposure.html Martin
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