Bob, when I lived in Denver every other weekend in the summer the family; my wife, myself my three teenage daughters and my son would go backpacking in Indian Peaks Wilderness Area.

The first though when I read about people not owning cars anymore was how would I have gotten to the trailhead 150 miles away?  And if it were one of those magic cars at my disposal would it have waited for us until we got back two or three days later?

Or when I went fly fishing in the South Platte and drove up and down the river looking for spots to fish would the car I sent for be at my disposal all day?

It sounds great for people trapped in a metropolitan prison but my lifestyle would be severely cramped if I did not have my own transportation at my disposal.

It looks to me like your freedom of movement would be severely curtailed.

Luke...what about the next two or three decades?

It looks to me like all this magic stuff is going to make people extremely lazy unless they are well motivated self-starters.  And not too many of us are that.

Noel

Noel, I never said anything about not having your own transportation. You could always get to the trail head the old fashioned way, pack mule. On the other hand, plenty of people don't own, or can't afford, a car. If less people did own cars, we'd have less pollution. Unless, of course, you care more about your leisure time than you do about the air we breathe.  Sorry about your lifestyle.

Noel, I have to believe that even you will eventually run out things to complain about 

2 hours ago, birdguy said:

The first though when I read about people not owning cars anymore was how would I have gotten to the trailhead 150 miles away?  And if it were one of those magic cars at my disposal would it have waited for us until we got back two or three days later? ...  It looks to me like your freedom of movement would be severely curtailed.

There are only two laws in this world that cannot be changed - the laws of economics and the laws of physics.

The elimination of cars will be driven by the former. Keep in mind that living in a rural area economics are on your side - it's more efficient and practical to have your own transportation than to rely on mass transit or rental vehicles, especially if you are doing something regularly. At the same time, if you live in a dense urban area it makes more sense to rent than to own. Why should I tie up $10-30k of capital and pay associated fees to use a vehicle one or two weeks of the year? It's just a math problem. When I lived downtown I didn't own a car and it made perfect sense not to.

In two or three decades, things will be very different. In ways that with hindsight are obvious but very different than we predicted. I don't think anyone in 1950 could predict the world we live in today. We were all supposed to be riding on hovercrafts and taking rockets to Australia in 20 minutes, with no concept of the Internet or computer-related automation.

Cheers!

Bob, I have never run out of things to complain about.  It's a hobby of mine.  When I was on my high school debating team I could argue either side of an argument equally well.  But I normally only stick to the side I believe in.

Luke, when I lived in Denver I lived on the 38th floor of a downtown highrise.  Between going skiing in the winter and wilderness camping/hiking and fly fishing in the summer owning a car was a necessity.  I suppose for people who never get out of the city owning a car is of no import.  But for people who want to get away from the city for recreation it is a necessity.  I'm not talking about two weeks a year but two weekends a month in addition to the two weeks.  I need my wheels man!

Now I live in Roswell New Mexico, population less than 50,000.  We are a hundred miles form the nearest interstate highway.  We do have air service to Dallas and Phoenix.  This is the closet I'll ever got to Mayberry in my lifetime.

When I was a young man  in my 70s my wife and went hiking in the Sacramento Mountains about 70 miles west.  I volunteered several days a week at the national wildlife refuge just outside of town.  As a wildlife photographer driving around the local areas photographing birds.  I just can't imagine not having the freedom of an automobile (or prior to autos a horse) to take where I want to go when I want to go.

Last August my youngest daughter took m to San Francisco for a father-daughter week-end.  It was a nice trip.  We stayed at Fisherman's Wharf.  But the mass of humanity was not so great.  You couldn't get me to live in a metropolitan city anymore.

I'm glad I won't be around to see your brave new world of technology.  I've had a taste of it and I'm not impressed.

Noel

10 hours ago, birdguy said:

But for people who want to get away from the city for recreation it is a necessity.  I'm not talking about two weeks a year but two weekends a month in addition to the two weeks.  I need my wheels man!

Noel, I'm not sure why you seem to view this as a zero-sum equation. The fact that other people with different preferences than you have different choices available to them does not suddenly mean that you are forced into them. If you want to have a dedicated vehicle because your frequency or pattern of use makes renting uneconomical, then nothing will prevent you from doing so. (It may be less economical than before due to fewer people choosing that option, but still possible.)

If you go around certain parts of the country, there are still folks on the roads with horse-drawn buggies. If they can do so in 2018, I'm pretty sure that I will be able to own and drive my own car in another half century (whether I can get insured is another question of course).

Considering your age, I am puzzled why you are so averse to self-driving cars. My own parents are a few years older than you and they (and indirectly my sister and I) are facing the notion of when to give up their car keys due to age and infirmity. Many people equate independence with mobility (as you appear to) and it can be a struggle as driving gets harder and harder (and less and less safe) but people cling to their independence. A self-driving car could be a lifesaver for older folks who may not be safe on the road but still cherish mobility and independence.

17 hours ago, birdguy said:

It looks to me like all this magic stuff is going to make people extremely lazy unless they are well motivated self-starters.  And not too many of us are that.

I am sure people said the same thing when we invented hot water heaters, dishwashers and laundry machines. All this magic stuff will make people lazy and get into trouble with all their free time. :)

It does make me wonder at times if you've already decided that you don't like new things and are working backwards. Progress is not universally positive, but it's not universally negative either. And there are certain things coming that I could see as a boon for people of your age, even if they are unfamiliar.

Cheers!

 

18 hours ago, birdguy said:

when I went fly fishing in the South Platte

Noel, what years did you fish the S. Platte? What section of the river did you do best on and what was your go to fly for the S. Platte? Their was a certain very popular fly that was *invented* for the S. Platte in the 70's.

Bruce

1 - I mentioned the automobiles because in that Daimler Benz article he said people wouldn't own cars in the future.  I can't imagine that.  

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. 

2 - Too much free time can be a curse.  What do you do with it if your are not wealthy enough to take trips around the world or engage in recreational activities?  

Like most people we have a dish washer.  My wife only eats a small bowl of cereal for breakfast but I make myself a large traditional breakfast.  And I do the breakfast dishes.  I wash them before I put them in the dishwasher.  I kinda like doing some household chores.  I don't want an automatic carpet cleaner.  I think vacuuming the living room is kinda fun and I share the duty with my wife.

Now I don't have a problem with free time.  I actually don't have enough time for everyting I like to do like writing, photography, flightsiming and trainsimming, talking to people on forums like this one, volunteering, reading, doing The Great Courses (this morning I finished the last lesson on The Science of Flight.

I enjoy interacting with people on the workplace like waiters and waitresses in restaurants and cashiers in the super market and even my doctor.  He's Iranian and I have studied a lot about the Persian Empire and we have nice ccnversations during my quarterly exams about the history of Persia (Iran).  I don't want that taken away from by having my smart phone scan my eyes and sample my blood as mentioned in that article..

BUT!  I know several retirees who have very limited interests who tell me they are bored all the time.

I think all the leisure time that will amass from having robots and AI doing all of work and thinking for us will just create more chaos for society.  Having nothing to do is a curse.

Noel

I fished the river between Deckers and South Platte Bruce.  And sometimes beyond South Platte into the canyon.  Also Tarryall Creek driving south from Jefferson.  I guess it was in late seventies through the 80s.  I retired and moved to New Mexico in 93 when I turned 60 and reached the mandatory retirement age for military service.  

I don't recall any special fly for the South Platte.  I always had good luck with caddis fly imitations.  They seem to hatch all summer long.  I tied my own flies.

I belonged to the American Sportsman's Club at the time and they had leases on private property on both the South Platte and Tarryall Creek at the time.

They also had a lease on the Colorado River just down from Hot Sulphur Springs where I did pretty well.

If you ever get to New Mexico try out the San Juan River near Bloomfield.  Lots of big trout.  You do best by hiring a guide and floating the river.

 

Noel

Okay, I'm not familiar with an area or place called South Platte around there so I don't know if you were fishing upstream or downstream from the bridge at Deckers. The fly I was referring to was a nymph called a Brassie and it was fished in very small sizes like 18-20 at the time. It didn't have a bead head like the ones on You Tube videos show today. I only fished the SP a couple times below Deckers and with one exception I never did well. The one exception was I had an invite to fish the private Wigwam Club, just upstream from the bridge and I caught 2-5lb fish on almost every cast for a couple hours. I finally quit. It was just too easy and my wrist was getting sore. Then we had lunch and cocktails. What a place!  What a day.

I never fished Tarryall or Cheesman Res. From the late 60's til I moved to FL in 85 I fished the Thompson, N. St Vrain, or Poudre rivers every weekend, even though I lived in Littleton. Several times a year I would do overnight trips to fish the East & Taylor at Almont, and the Roaring Fork & Frying Pan at Aspen. Occasionally I'd fish Gore Creek in Vail. For 4-5yrs we did a 3-4 day camping trip to Trappers Lake and caught many, many good sized cutthroats. Best fishing in the state! I got to know Jim Poor and bought all my flies and gear from his Angler's All shop on South Santa Fe (still there). He tied a grey stone fly that never failed me! Moved back to CO in 2006 and fished for several more years, but time and trifocals took their toll. Turning 80 in a couple months and before moving to PHX in July 2015 I gave away all my fishing gear. I've fallen down on the slippery rocks and driven home with a wet crotch for the last time! 

Like FSX I got to be a decent fly Fisher, but never an expert. In MSFS, after 17years, I consider myself an advanced beginner! Never had the desire to read books on trout & entomology or FMS Manuals either!

Bruce

 

South Platte was the bridge that crossed the river just before it dropped into the canyon and down to Cheesman.  It was on the road that went south from Conifer.

I fished the St. Vrain and the Big Thompson the day before they had that big flash flood.

On vacations we would go down to Creede and fish the Conejos River.  One morning we drove into Creede for breakfast and I the cook brough out our meal.  I asked him how come Creede hadn't become a Styrofoam Victorian town with botiques and fancy restaurants.  He told me, "Because we have guns."

I never fished the reservoirs.  I was always a wade the river guy.

And I remember Anglers All and Jim Poor.  I spent a lot of time there and money there.  Seems like a lifetime ago.

My dad started me fly fishing when I was just a little guy.  I did all my life until my sense of balance deteriorated so I could no longer wade the rivers.  I never cared much if I caught a lot of fish or not.  Just being out there n the river was enough for me even if it was bad fishing day.  I released all the trout I caught.  A trout is too valuable a resource to only use once.

Noel 

 

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

1 - I mentioned the automobiles because in that Daimler Benz article he said people wouldn't own cars in the future.  I can't imagine that.  

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. 

I guess I don't understand why the ownership or operation of a car is such a change. If one was to say that in two or three years none of us would be travelling in cars, I would seriously question that. When I lived in the city, I didn't own a car. My wife did, because she worked in the suburbs, but I just rode public transit each day. I spent $3/day (rather than $40 when gas, insurance, parking and car payments were considered) and I could relax and read the paper on my ride in. That clearly doesn't make sense where I am now, but there are already tens, maybe hundreds, of thousands of people for whom owning a car doesn't make sense. That doesn't mean that they don't travel in or drive one.

Self-driving is a bigger shift, but again, if you live in a major urban area you likely travel in a car that you do not drive. Taking the human out of the equation makes it a lot more economical and probably expands its reach. I drive 25 miles each way to and from work. If you were to say I could get a ride in a car (self driving or not) for 50 cents a mile, that becomes an interesting question. Would I pay $25/day (multiplied by 200), so $5k a year? Compared to what I pay for a car (never mind my aggravation and my ability to do work on the drive if I'm not operating the vehicle) it gets very interesting. If my commute was half the distance it's a slam dunk. Why would I tie up $20-50k in capital, on top of being frustrated for an hour every day?

I imagine if you told people 150 years ago that their children would have no desire or ability to ride a horse people would think you are crazy. Even 110 years ago domestic servants were a staple of upper-middle class households; to suggest that they would be a relative rarity only 20 years later would also be unfathomable. But such a shift doesn't mean that your existing way of life is impossible; merely undesirable.

Cheers!

Luke

I always turned south at Pine Junction, or went to Deckers from Sedalia off 85. Never took the road from Conifer. Don't know why.

I fished the Thompson the morning of the flood, Saturday, til about 1100am! The flood started about midnight that night!

I rarely fished lakes and reservoirs. When I did it was with a fly and bubble.

Drove past Anglers All a couple times this past August on the way, from my daughter's place in Grant Ranch, to buy my new FSX flying pc at Micro Center. Great memories.

I started fly fishing in about 1966. At first I kept them all, but finally figured out I didn't particularly like eating trout, so I released them. I kept some trout for my Mother-in-Law in Ft Collins every once in a while and she was deliriously happy. I also occasionally, would take about 6 trout to George Stein, the owner of the Black Bear Inn in Lyons. He would poach them and we would have lunch. Then he would buy me drinks all afternoon at the bar!!! Boozy drive home! Ah, the 70's!

I also was a member of the American Sportsman's Club in the 70's. I never used their fishing leases, but I hunted ducks, pheasant and quail on their Sonnenberg Ranch lease out by Sterling for several years in the Fall. Terrific lease!

Bruce

People still like to ride horses Luke.  A political candidate rode his horse to the polling place yesterday.

When I weigh economics versus convenience convenience wins out every time.  I'm willing to pay for the freedom of movement it gives me.  I would hate lose that no matter where I live.

I would guess you are not an outdoorsman who hunts and fishes.  If all your entertainment and recreation is city bound then I suppose you would have no need for a car. But I wouldn't want to have to do without one and live within the bounds and restrictions not having one would leave me.

Where I live it is over 90 miles north to the nearest town.  About 70 miles west and 30 miles south and 90 miles east.  I would guess you don't live in the wide open places where being outdoors most of the time is the norm.

But even when I lived in a highrise in Denver getting out of the city as often as possible was an imperative.

Noel

I'm confused. As you point out, despite 99.99% of the population not owning or riding a horse, one can still do so today - so why do you feel that a changing world will prevent you from doing what you want and feel comfortable doing? All that will change is that fewer other people will be doing so.

Cheers!

 

1 - I mentioned the automobiles because in that Daimler Benz article he said people wouldn't own cars in the future.  I can't imagine that.  

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. 

Well, they haven't shot all the horses yet but according to that article they will be shooting the privately owned cars.  Where did you come up with the 99.9%.  A lot of people ride horses out here in the west.

Personal story.

My wife and I used to go to Las Vegas once a year and gamble a bit when we  lived in Denver.  I liked to play Black Jack but we also liked to put coins in the slot machines.  They were kind of fun.  You carried your bucket of quarters around and selected a machine to play. You put your quarter in the slot, pulled the handle, watched the wheels turn, and when you hit three cherries or oranges a bunch of quarters would fall down into the bin.  

A couple of years ago our glass elephant was full of pocket change.  We must have had fifty dollars worth of quarters in there.  My wife suggested we DRIVE to Ruidoso and play the slots at the casino there.  

We hadn't been inside a casino in 20 years.  We walked in and I didn't hear the rumble of the slot machine wheels and the tinkle of quarters falling into the bins.  I did hear fake sound effects.

We walked around and the slot machines are now all high tech.  They don't take quarters anymore.

We went to the cashier and turned our quarters in for a debit card thingy.  You put it into the slot, tell the machine how much you want play, push a button, and graphics twinkle on and off with oranges and cherries and bars and the like.  And if you win nothing happens.  You push a button when you leave and the machine spits out a receipt if you won anything and you can turn it in for cash at the cashier,  

We played for about five minutes and decided to leave.  We turned in our casino debit cars and the cashier gave us back the money that was left on it.

It wasn't fun anymore because technology sterilized the game.  It was nothing more than an ATM machine.

BTW...my wife and I both have a car.  A number of years ago we decided we really only needed one car because we were retired.  That didn't work out.  We were both too used to the freedom of going where we wanted to go when we wanted to go.  I would be volunteering at the wildlife refuge and she wanted to go shopping.  She didn't want to wait for me to come home so she could use the car.  So we went back to being a two car family.  We swap your economics for our life style convenience.

Noel

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