The case for FSX...

[Luke 782]

50 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Technology isn't the be all and end all of everything.  And sometimes it isn't as good as the old way.

When I was in in the Colorado Air National Guard I was a weather forecaster.  That was back in the days we got sheets of observer data from every weather station in the country and plotted the data on blank charts.  Then we drew in the isobars by hand and were able to show the fronts and pressure systems.

Weather forecasting is as much an art as it is a science.  And a forecaster who has been on the job for several years at the same station has learned the nuances of local weather that computers and automated systems can't replicate.

Okay, here I have to step in a bit. For background, in a previous job I worked for a well-known US cable channel who regularly sends their employees into landfalling hurricanes for some good old-fashioned disaster porn. Once I was on a business trip and knew I was screwed when my co-worker was two rows ahead of me on the last plane into BOS before the storm hit. :) For disclosure, I am not and have never been a met - my background was large-scale distribution of the data that the mets produced - but I was aware of the issues they faced.

I agree with you in the edge cases - areas where there are specific micro-climates due to natural formations (the SF Bay area was a big one for us) as well as cases where things are right around freezing and being off by a degree or two can make the difference between two inches of snow or a bit of sleet or ice (or just rain). In those cases, having an experienced met who understands where the models don't match up to the specific locale can be useful a few days of the year.

Where technology shines is in two areas - first, scale. Yes, you get sheets of observer data. The engines can get those several times an hour, crunch and replot the data. Where they get really interesting is that they can do interpolation and make estimates of the weather conditions away from an obs station - every 15 minutes I can get an obs value and forecast for any arbitrary point on the earth. Is it always going to be as accurate as a human? In most cases, yes. In a lot of other cases much better if there isn't data for that specific place - the human will have a big challenge.

(As an aside, go here https://www.deltava.org/acarsmap.do and take a look at the temperature, wind gust and wind speed layers. Those are updated every 20 minutes. How many humans would it take to do that?)

Second, it gets smarter over time. When you're recording all that historic data, you can compare it against the forecasts and see the misses. If there's a consistent miss, it can be identified and the reasons for it analyzed, then added to the model to make it better. Each year the NHC forecast errors for hurricanes get smaller and smaller as we understand the systems and the atmosphere better. Same thing with other forecasting - the reality is that we're moving towards automated forecasting for the same reason that we move towards automated aviation - the stupid bags of meat are the weakest portion of the system.

(Look here, by the way - https://www.forecastadvisor.com/NewMexico/Roswell/88201/ The fully automated forecasts appear to be the most accurate.)

Does that mean that the automation makes errors the human wouldn't? Absolutely. But I'll trade 100 automation-created errors over 500 or 1,000 human-caused errors any day. The best metaphor I'd use in the automation vs. human forecasting discussion is a marathon. We've got a human runner against a Porsche 911 and we've given the runner a 23 mile head start. He seems so far ahead, but he's going to lose.

Cheers!

Luke

 

 

 

[HighBypass 2,339]

1 hour ago, Luke said:

.....the stupid bags of meat are the weakest portion of the system.....

You make a good argument Luke, and technology is wonderful. However, it's the not-so stupid bags of meat I want sitting at the controls when the computers take a dump..

[birdguy 3,943]

Computers fall short in local forecasting Luke.  And it wasn't because computers were better, it was economics that shut down local weather stations.

As I mentioned the NWS  forecast for Roswell NM today was drizzle all day and tonight.  It's been clear and sunny all day.

There is an excellent online weather website called windyty which I prefer to NWS.  It has great graphical displays. 

For hurricanes and macro weather forecasting computers are good.  For local forecasts I'll take the local forecaster, a local farmer, windyty, or the NWS computer models in that order. 

I was sent to 6th US Army Headquarters at the Presidio of San Francisco right after the Loma Prieta earthquake to do weather forecasting and analysis for the emergency operations center there.  The area micro-climates were a headache.  KSFO clear and sunny while Half Moon bay was still socked in.  I had one of my forecasters draw upslope maps for the areas for several of the areas so we could better predict the weather for each of the unique operation areas.  I had weather observers deployed at a dozen locations in the area.

Noel (an old rancid bag of meat still hanging in there)

[Luke 782]

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

There is an excellent online weather website called windyty which I prefer to NWS.  It has great graphical displays. 

You realize that windy just aggregates different computer models, right? That's all GFS, ECMWF and NAM are. The European suite tends to be more accurate, mostly because in the US we haven't spent enough time and money on automating the forecasts, not too much.

Cheers!

 

[birdguy 3,943]

Yes, I now that Luke.  And it's better than NWS for area forecasts.  But just as bad for local forecasts.  Although NWS is better for current observations. 

I just at looked at windyty and for Roswell NM, Sunday, 2200, it says we are at 51 degrees.  We are actually 41 degrees which is what the NWS observation was on the hour.  NWS forecast says we are going to have drizzle an fog tonight and a low of 41 degrees.  That's what it is now under clear skies.  If the skies remain clear it will get down to between 32-35 degrees tonight.  A forecast by a bag of meat (me) forecasting on site.

If we had a weather station at the airport like we used to have we'd get bags of meat local forecasts more accurate than a computer in Albuquerque can give us.

There are places where your bags of meat out perform computers.

Years ago when I lived in Denver we were forecast to have snow the following day,  It was my weather flight's national guard weekend and I checked the jet max on the 300mb chart that was digging the trough and based on that I said it would hit Albuquerque instead.  And it did.  Of course the computer models 20 years weren't as refined as they are now. But humans, while slower than computers, are still smarter.

Let's go back to your human against the Porsche 911.  How well would your Porsche do against a human hiker on the Appalachian trail or a human rock climber on the face of El Capitan in Yosemite?  I repeat, computers aren't the end all and be all.

Noel 

[bobbyjack 61]

Noel,

I, too, like it simple. Any more. spreading out a large cumbersome paper map, then trying to remember what I need, is no longer simple. Looking at an up to date map I can zoom in on, and hold in one hand, is very simple. When I go to a mall, a map of the mall come up on my phone, automatically. Very helpful if I've never been to that mall before. 

The only jewelry I wear is my wedding band. I've been married 3 times. Some of us learn slower than others. Anyway, I was an auto mechanic. The first two marriages I took off my ring because we were always told that it might catch on something and get a finger cut off. Well the first two marriages failed. The third time around, I decided I was not going to take off my ring at work. I never had a problem wearing the ring, and this marriage has way outlasted the others. Now either I finally got smart (doubtful), or the ring theory worked. 

It is a simple, gold plated band that cost $20 at a department store. It means the world to me. My wife has offered to buy a better one, but I tell her I like this one that we bought when we were poorer than we are now. 

[birdguy 3,943]

Been without a computer for a few days and lost my place in this thread.

My computer died.  Fried CPU and Mother Board.  Had to spend the kids inheritance on a new one just got it a couple days ago.  Trying to figure out Windows 10.

Nice to have a device that relieves you of the necessity to think Bob.  I think I mentioned one of my hobbies is collecting maps.  I like to see what's around the area I am travelling so I can take interesting detours.

I do have a GPS in my Prius but never use it anymore.

Once when we were driving back to Roswell from Socorro we decided to stop for lunch in Ruidoso.  So I turned off the main highway toward downtown Ruidoso and the damned GPS kept saying, "Recalculating, take the next left" over and over again.  I told my wife the damned thing sounded like a nagging woman and I turned it off.  Haven't used it since bit then I always know where I want to go.  I'm pretty familiar with southeast New Mexico.

I do realize smart phones relieve one of a lot of mundane tasks.

This woman went into a beauty parlor to have her hair done.

The hairdresser told he she would have to take the earplug out of her ear first.

The woman said her husband told her never to take it out because it would tell her everything she had to do so she wouldn't forget.

The hairdresser told her it would be OK just to get her hair done.  What harm would it do?

So she did and after a few minutes the woman fell out of the chair and just laid there on the floor.

They called 911 and the paramedics arrive.  When they examined her they said she was dead.

One of the paramedics picked up the earpiece and listened t what it was saying. 

"Breath in....breathe out.  Breathe in...breathe out."

You can become so dependent on those things you forget how to do things yourself.

Noel  

[Patco Lch 1,467]

Funny, as I read this I'm watching a piece on Fox News about the dangers of mas proliferation of weaponized robots that are programmed to seek,acuire and destroy targets and the possibility of malfunction. Like Robo Cops and storm troopers. They have developed a Robo dog and A robot that recognizes facel expressions and reacts accordingly. Like the Stepford wives. Weird Science Is here.

[birdguy 3,943]

Some people look angry all the time and others keep a smile on their face in the worst of circumstances.  There has to more to it than just a facial expression.  How does it react to Halloween masks?

Noel

 

[Patco Lch 1,467]

I wouldn't volunteer to be the test case.

[HighBypass 2,339]

10 hours ago, birdguy said:

....How does it react to Halloween masks?....

I guess the whole "Killer Clown" craze would come to a swift end.. 

[birdguy 3,943]

When technology takes a back seat.  This is what I mean when I say technology isn't the be all and end all especially when it steals the essences of what's important to you like using a GPS to decide which way you are going to go instead of choosing the route yourself on paper maps that have folds and crinkles in them and lines and circles you have drawn on them.  They become familiar friends in a way a GPS cannot. 

Yesterday a friend of mine who is ham radio operator told me he dumped his computer interface for his Morse code key because it was too 'sterile'.

My reply:

The best fly rods were made of bamboo. They split the bamboo into 6 wedge shaped sections that were glued together. No two are alike.  But after WW2 Tonkin cane was not to be had except for the rod manufacturers that already had a stock.  So they started mass producing them with fiberglass, and later carbon fibers.  But they were all the same.  They had no individual character.  They were 'sterile' as you say.

I found an excellent cane rode in pristine condition in a pawn shop. It was in the window and I went in and bought it. It was quite expensive. But it felt better than the fiber glass of that day and later the carbon rods of today. It cast the line smoother and felt better. Hard to explain. And no two are exactly alike. They each have their own 'personality'.Trying to explaining fly casting is like trying to explain sitting in Cessna all by yourself 5000 feet above the ground. And I imagine the feeling of sending and receiving Morse code is much the same. It's so personal it's undefineable.

His rely:

Yes, it's exactly the same. The timing between the elements (dots and dashes) that make up a character are precise, and the spacing between elements is also very precise. Computers can send it precisely. Human beings can't. Some can get close. Some can get close on dots and not on dashes. There are lots of variables humans can't handle as well as computers.

But, to me, it sounds wrong. I love the various "accents" that develop when different people using mechanical equipment unintentionally interpret the timing. I can identify friends from the way they send code before I hear their call letters. Computers all sound the same, because they're perfectly uniform.

There's just something indescribable about it. It is personal. That's exactly right.

 

Noel

[Glynn 405]

I had the most fun and felt the greater connection to the hobby and the folks here when I was using FS2004, FSX with the DX10 fixer turned out to be a great sim and I probably should have been content with that but I pressed on with P3D from v1 untill v3, since then I feel the hobby has become a money pit,  Developers charging fees for straight porting old assets into 64bit,  the community fractured and constantly argumentative.

My Yoke, throttles and rudders along with all my Goflight stuff have not been touched for months and now are packed away in my loft.

Do I miss it, of course I do, and I still will visit here daily but the magic has gone.

Glyn,

 

[HighBypass 2,339]

Fascinating stuff Noel, about cane rods and Morse code "accents" - ham radio almost as an art form I think!

I suppose another analogy of "personalities" is when a Flight Engineer is trying to look after 2 to 4 cantankerous big radial engines. 

[n4gix 4,947]

6 hours ago, birdguy said:

But, to me, it sounds wrong. I love the various "accents" that develop when different people using mechanical equipment unintentionally interpret the timing. I can identify friends from the way they send code before I hear their call letters. Computers all sound the same, because they're perfectly uniform.

I've been a ham for nearly fifty years. I can generally tell from the "fist" with whom I'm in contact after the first twenty or so characters. Each operator has a unique sending style...

...unless they are using a computer of course. Even a Vibroplex key that will produce evenly spaced dit's and dah's isn't as "perfect" as a computer. I can still detect the distinctive sending style.