3 hours ago, dmwalker said:

As a wild guess, I think a one child policy could do it within three generations but the world economies would collapse. Ironically, there is concern in countries where populations are decreasing. I am not sure what conclusions can be drawn from China's one child policy as there were many external factors.

You're right there is concern because we're addicted to our growth-based model.  But this is key:  it would be phased in over three generations, therefore giving some time for adaptation.  Whereas the 'dumb', 'market-based' approach I see leading to far more drastic change ultimately as major forcings come to a head politically, environmentally/climatologically, socially.  We (modern humanity) won't do it we're not that smart when it comes to sustainability, we've only been at this model a few hundred years now and we've become rather spoiled by our lifestyles.

Well, I had four children who gave us three grandchildren who gave is four great grandchildren.  I'm afrid my family isn't doing it's share.

Noel

12 hours ago, birdguy said:

Are they underwater cables.  I suppose they must be.

I thought the renewable windmills and solar panels were on the island itself.

Noel

 

Only in terms of households with solar panels and back up batteries like anywhere else. And the other household renewable tech of course. No full scale wind farms or anything, we are too small. We are only 11 miles long. 0.03% the size of the UK. 63,000 people. None of the UK's wind farms feed us.

We have a sub-sea cable from Jersey to Guernsey callad "GJ1" installed in 2000. 

It's one of the benefits of an international grid I mentioned earlier. In this case the "European Grid". We recieve GoO certificates at the end of each year certifying that's its from renewables.

 

We are aiming for a direct cable to France, rather than via Jersey, in 2025. We do have a small fossil fuel power station for occasional backup in the winter. And for when the cable is de-energised for maintainance. Once the direct cable to France is laid, the power station will be just there for emergency use.

On 11/24/2021 at 12:49 AM, scott967 said:

China's thorium reactor may be the way forward.

 

scott s.

.

 

 

 

About to fire it up looks of things. It's an experimental reactor though. So would be a long time before they could make much impact. And last I heard there were disadvantages, issues. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2011/jun/23/thorium-nuclear-uranium

 

 

Edited November 25, 20214 yr by martin-w

14 hours ago, Noel said:

Never ever does anyone acknowledge the giant and growing elephant on earth, and that of course is ever growing human population:  in one lousy long human lifespan ago we went from ~ 1.5B people to ~8B people and with that a meteoric rise in per capita resource consumption.  This doesn't bode well at all for political, economic, social, nor environment security--but no one will admit it and focus on it.

You hit the nail on the head.  The root problem is quite simple - too many people.

Unfortunately, the economic model in use for many decades now is based on continual growth.  Companies need an ever-increasing number of consumers, plus they need more cheap labor to keep their profits high.  Even many govt. pension systems rely on a steady increase in the number of younger people in order to pay for current retirees' benefits.  It's all a big Ponzi scheme, really, but now it is starting to fail, hence the money printing, low interest rates, and price inflation, forever.  Nothing is free in the end. 

Agent Smith in the movie The Matrix said it well (I'm paraphrasing): "I've been trying to classify your species. You humans move into an area, you multiply, consume all the resources, and then move on to another place and do it again. You are more like a virus." 

I hate to be so cynical, but I doubt that the human race will make the necessary sacrifices to save ourselves.  We will continue to lurch from crisis to crisis, putting out fires and patching things up but never solving the core problems. 

The wealthy "elites" see what's happening and are making moves to protect themselves.  Just read what the World Economic Forum and United Nations has in store for all of us, while the "elite" continue to thrive, zipping around the world on their private jets, going to parties on their rich friends' yachts, and living in huge multi-million dollar mansions.

Dave

16 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

You hit the nail on the head.  The root problem is quite simple - too many people.

 

No problem, Elon is making us a multi-planet species. Lots more real-estate out there. 🚀😁

 

17 minutes ago, dave2013 said:

I doubt that the human race will make the necessary sacrifices to save ourselves.

 

maybe the issues you perceive are one of the "great filters"? 🙁

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

I hate to be so cynical, but I doubt that the human race will make the necessary sacrifices to save ourselves.

Dave

It's just being real Dave else it's La Belle Indifference, where most of the affluent live, and truthfully myself included of course.  But it is hard to stay there all the time.  Most everyone but the truly detached see it.  It takes its toll though in our collective psychologies.  There will be survivors because life life's as it were, but this modern civilization will be culled down well below where we theoretically could have gone if we were truly Homo Sapiens, the wise humans, but alas we seem to have morphed into Homo Cleverus Addictus.  In fact my sense is we are already well into the Eat, Drink and Be Merry stage, as even the most creative and driven among us, the Bezos', Musks, and Bransons, are Lost in Space.

Who was it that said, "Go forth and multiply?"  That's one piece of advice we seemed only too happy to take seriously.  

I also wonder how limiting families to a single child would hold up Constitutionally.

As Pogo said, "We have met the enemy and it is us."

Noel

 

Quote

"The global growth rate in absolute numbers accelerated to a peak of 92.9 million in 1988, but has declined to 81.3 million in 2020.^[3] Long-term projections indicate that the growth rate of the human population of this planet will continue to decline, and that by the end of the 21st century, it will reach a steady state.^[2"

 

Quote

"Europe's population is projected to be declining at the rate of 0.3% per year.^[2]"

 

Quote

"Population growth has declined mainly due to the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.0 in 1960 to 2.3 in 2020."

 

^{https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_decline}

 

^{Possible negative effects of a declining world population are worth reading about in the Wiki article.}

Edited November 25, 20214 yr by martin-w

Martin, does the Wiki article address more modern methods of birth control and the fact that many young people, both male and female, are opting for single lives as opposed to marriage?  Or is it just about fertility?

Noel

We're in major new territory now, and Long-Term Projections aren't reliable at all any more.  Yes growth rate is in decline and most certainly growth rate will be in ever-increasing decline over the coming years due to all of the issues already touched upon including resource depletion, pollution, climate change, and so forth.  But current projected world population still comes in at 10B by 2050 which is a major decline in growth rate but in terms of absolute impact on the planet it's roughly 12% worse than it already is now.  If you're a James Lovelock aficionado you can take solace in Gaia doing its thing.  And as is said, Mother Nature bats last.  Or the new Homo Deus may conclude it's time to engineer a real pandemic, direct from the H5N1 sitting poorly protected in a few labs.  After all, we really need less and less people to maintain the standard of living of the affluent as AI/Automation continues to march forward, even fodder for wars humans are much less needed that in recent past times.  

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

"Go forth and multiply?"

Perhaps we should integrate more and differentiate less.

In the comments section of the video "The Next Generation of Nuclear Power is Here "there are references to pebble bed reactors and BN-800 reactors, which I had never heard of. The BN-800 reactor is particularly interesting because it runs on mixed uranium/plutonium fuel and can be used to reduce the stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium although I don't know what the byproducts would be.

Edited November 25, 20214 yr by dmwalker