Malaysian Flight 370

[HawkDsl 50]

 

 

The only other possibility is that the pilots were swanning around West of Sumatra trying to get their bearings

 

Now thats something that didnt cross my mind. ALA Navy Flight 19 kind of deal. If the avionics when to crap, and they only had the stand by 3 pack (HSI,VS, AS), and no navigation aid of any kind save the compass... whew! Flying out over a massive ocean (at night!) would be dam easy to get lost. Holy Cow.

[NGXfanatic 85]

As much fun as it is to speculate on the cause of the disappearance, I look back on these past 3 weeks and feel exhausted by the coverage and theories that were thrown about.   I agree with some folks here, that it's time to just sit back and let the experts do their investigation, because ultimately a proper explanation will be determined.  I can't believe how foolish some otherwise respected journalists appeared with some of the theories that were put out there, either intentionally or not, in an effort to get ratings.   To use this tragic event as a vehicle for the "ultimate reality show" when so many innocent lives were lost is pretty sad and insensitive.   Yes, I have participated in the discussion here and elsewhere, but in hindsight, I feel ashamed for some of the things I have said, when like the media at large, I had no factual basis to base my opinions on.  

 

I am not speaking for anyone other than myself, I just wish to express my condolences for the families of the missing and hope that the authorities can get to the bottom of this mystery, and not be distracted by some of the insane conjecture.

[mganz121 159]

SNIPPED .... How many people here have heard something re this subject on public media or read something other than AVSIM that has made you stop and say "Wow.  SNIPPED ....  Just rolled my eyes over something on the TV just now.

 

From the hobbyists sites perhaps?

 

I'm quite sure the experts avoid sites like this for a very good reason. The media don't ............. unfortunately.

[mganz121 159]

And just to add more theories, one I've had for the past week or more, (since I heard about the "unknown" caller and his wife had left him). A smart person will hide a false claim against their insurance cover. Where else is better than a very wild and remote part of the world? There ....... I've said it. Not because I have no respect for those professionals that cart us from A to B, but because I know from my professional experience that the mind can play awful tricks when one is down and out.

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11226334

 

http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-pilot-terribly-upset-by-marriage-breakup-20140326-zqn4p.html

 

The captain of Flight 370 was in no state of mind to fly the day it disappeared and could have taken the Boeing 777 for a "last joyride" before crashing into the Indian Ocean, a fellow pilot says.

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's world was crumbling, said the long-time associate. He had been facing serious family problems, including separation from his wife and relationship problems with another woman he was seeing.

[psolk 3,040]

Wow, call Jerry Springer. Can't believe they ran an entire unconfirmed article based on and I quote

"The friend said Captain Zaharie, who he chatted to when they met several times a year through work".

And the other link you posted then regurgitated the same info.

[mganz121 159]

 

 

Can't believe they ran an entire unconfirmed article based on and I quote
"The friend said Captain Zaharie, who he chatted to when they met several times a year through work".

 

And there's the rub. The past couple of weeks has been based on assumptions, assumptions and more assumptions. Much of it technically brilliant, much of it paranoia. Personally I tend to favour the simple explanation. Thanks for your superb, insightful, thoughtful and extensive reply.  :ph34r:  (And yes, I can believe it ...... the media has been full of many unconfirmed articles).

[geolpilot 88]

I see that nobody has responded to my question concerning the apparent "northwest" track of the plane when it was last detected by miilitary radar. Someone please put my mind at rest :smile:

 

In my post #732 I did speculate that the NW course and subsequent course change to south were due to pilot/s steering a crippled plane away from populated areas due to their being unable to land at either Penang / Langkawi / Phuket. The miltary radar data puts them close to Pennang / Langkawi and Butterworth Militray airfield, and if one accepts the course change form Vampi to Gival, they were at one stage heading towards Phuket (that course would take them to approach RW27), but then turned out to the Andaman Sea instead.

 

No-one has commented on my remarks about the equipment cooling system failure that will result after discharging FWD CARGO FIRE bottles, if no pilot intervention is taken to turn the equipment cooling back on at some stage.

 

See B777-QRH sections 8.23 to 8.25, and the highlighted note on 8.24.

 

The equipment cooling is automatically over-ridden when discharging cargo fire bottles into the forward cargo hold. I assume this is to prevent smoke + firefighting agent from getting into the panels electronic equipment, and cockpit. However, if those cooling fans are not turned back on, after 30 mins at low altitude and low cabin differential pressure (both likely in this case), all displays "may" burn out. In the PMDG 777 this accurately simulated and they DO burn out - every one of them.

 

Assuming the turn westward occured shortly after 01:21 local, the last radar position near Vampi was at 02:22 (1 hour later). Vampi is +- 170nm WNW of Penang. At a GS of 420 knots they would have been in the vicinity of the first altrenative airport around 01:58 (later if flying more slowly and allowing several more minutes for the turn to west). That allows for 30min for complete LCD panels failure to occur, precisely when needed most for approach into any of these alternatives.

 

The equipement cooling switch is overhead on the co-pilot's side. We now know this was his first assignment without a dedicated check pilot. Could he have missed the amber alert message "EQUIP COOLING OVRD"?. Or in a smole-filled cabin, and busy with many other crises, both pilots missed it. And ended up in an even worse situation.

 

To me this is a weakness in the otherwise amazingly safe 777. Surely if not manaully turned back on, those equipment cooling fans should auto-pulse to ON at regular intervals to prevent loosing instruments and electronics, which at night, is very serious. It essentially puts you into VFR, which without radio comms, TCAS, and transponder is almost certainly fatal.

 

This event would not have caused the initial transponder / ACARS / radio failures. That came earlier as we know, too soon to be a result of a equip. cooling failure. Looking at the antenna positions for VHF, HF and ATC on this plane, could it be possible that one or all of these were knocked out and not the actual instruments at the pedestal / avionics bay?. The antennae are staggered around the plane, some at top, others below fuselage to prevent a simultaneous failure of all from a localised external event, but without knowing the wiring route/s from the avionics bay to the antennae it is difficult to know how vulnerable they all may be to a single fire / electric short-circuit event. Presumeably at some point all these connections have to come to a fairly localised area (avionics bay).

 

If only the antennae links failed, the pilots could well have been transmitting, but were possbly trying to figure out why they were getting no response (at least for a while till they would have realised signals where not getting out despite frequencies and transponder codes being set correctly on the pedestal).

[vololiberista 205]

And just to add more theories, one I've had for the past week or more, (since I heard about the "unknown" caller and his wife had left him). A smart person will hide a false claim against their insurance cover. Where else is better than a very wild and remote part of the world? There ....... I've said it. Not because I have no respect for those professionals that cart us from A to B, but because I know from my professional experience that the mind can play awful tricks when one is down and out.

 

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11226334

 

http://www.smh.com.au/world/missing-malaysia-airlines-pilot-terribly-upset-by-marriage-breakup-20140326-zqn4p.html

 

The captain of Flight 370 was in no state of mind to fly the day it disappeared and could have taken the Boeing 777 for a "last joyride" before crashing into the Indian Ocean, a fellow pilot says.

Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah's world was crumbling, said the long-time associate. He had been facing serious family problems, including separation from his wife and relationship problems with another woman he was seeing.

Well, I've heard of clutching at straws. But, unfortunately parts of the media when there are no straws to clutch invent them!

 

Pilots with domestic problems is not uncommon. Many women find it difficult to have a relationship with someone who is often away for long periods and at strange times. Some are very jealous of the 'life' that aircrew lead thinking that they are hopping in and out of bed with every stewardess.

Also if flying is your passion you tend to leave earthly problems behind on Earth!

In my post #732 I did speculate that the NW course and subsequent course change to south were due to pilot/s steering a crippled plane away from populated areas due to their being unable to land at either Penang / Langkawi / Phuket. The miltary radar data puts them close to Pennang / Langkawi and Butterworth Militray airfield, and if one accepts the course change form Vampi to Gival, they were at one stage heading towards Phuket (that course would take them to approach RW27), but then turned out to the Andaman Sea instead.

 

 Have you re-created this more than once and have you checked with PMDG that their programming is correct and that this could really happen.

 

Also as far the ACARS being turned off we now know that it's company policy to do that on flights to China because they are exiting satellite cover.

[FLEX1978 373]

Haha, so true! especially with expat pilots. 

[psolk 3,040]

And there's the rub. The past couple of weeks has been based on assumptions, assumptions and more assumptions. Much of it technically brilliant, much of it paranoia. Personally I tend to favour the simple explanation. Thanks for your superb, insightful, thoughtful and extensive reply. :ph34r: (And yes, I can believe it ...... the media has been full of many unconfirmed articles).

Actually, extrapolating the fact that the source your article references is someone who "speaks to the pilot a few times a year when they see each other at work" but claims to have intimate insight into his private life and state of mind is indeed thoughtful and insightful, some may call it superb but why does it have to be extensive too? Did you not like someone calling out this "minor detail" and that's why you got so snirky?

[mganz121 159]

 

 

Actually, extrapolating the fact that the source your article references is someone who speaks to the pilot a few times a year when they see each other at work but claims to have intimate insight into his private life and state of mind is indeed thoughtful and insightful, some may call it superb but why does it have to be extensive too?

 

Your brilliance with words has got lost in translation to me. What exactly is your question?

 

Snirky (adjective): "Something that's not too great, but not too bad either". Well that's a new word for me so thank you for that ........ but no, not snirky. Smirky perhaps.

 

Let's agree that the media has a way with words and cultural propaganda. And from that, much is put forward without facts to back it up. Such is the need to constantly "headline" in order to compete and keep the viewers on the hook. Suicide, in some media was put forward a few days after this "accident" and in many other media has constantly been skirted around and dismissed due to other more "dire" considerations. I hate to admit that I do subscribe to this theory and have done for a while now.

[geolpilot 88]

Have you re-created this more than once and have you checked with PMDG that their programming is correct and that this could really happen.

 

I assume you refer to the "equipment cooling overide" automatically going on when there is a FWD cargo fire and/or discharging the fire bottles.

 

This behaviour is confirmed in the QRH document sections I referred to in that post. Also in the FCOM V2, section 8.10.6, it states that, on AFT or FWD cargo fire warning lights being illuminated the following aircraft systems are automatically "commanded to shut down " (amongst others);

 

• cargo airconditioning in respective compartment
• equipment cooling in the override mode.

Yes I have dupicated this several times in the PMDG 777. Have not checked with PMDG, but their modelling of this appears to be spot-on as per the QRH and FCOMV2. Capt. Randazzo and team went to great lengths accurately simulating the electrics and non-normal checklists / failure behaviour.

 

I  have been wanting to make a video of this "failure", but have not done so for two reasons;

 

• out of respect for the families of those on-board MH370, it could be very painful to watch.
• it would put me in the line-of fire of Boeing and their lawyers. They must be aware of this potential issue, and it is up to them to examine it / comment etc. Already the lawsuits against them are starting, and I do not want to get embroiled in that fight.

[mganz121 159]

 

 

vololiberista, on 26 Mar 2014 - 9:51 PM, said:

Have you re-created this more than once and have you checked with PMDG that their programming is correct and that this could really happen.

 

 

 

Yes I have dupicated this several times in the PMDG 777. Have not checked with PMDG, but their modelling of this appears to be spot-on as per the QRH and FCOMV2. Capt. Randazzo and team went to great lengths accurately simulating the electrics and non-normal checklists / failure behaviour. 

 

Guys

 

Quote from the boss of the PMDG forum. If you can't do it there, please don't do it here. At least respect his wishes.

 

Posted 14 March 2014 - 05:36 PM

Captains,

 

As you are no doubt aware, the whole world is awaiting some explanation as to the fate of MH370, a Boeing 777-200ER registered 9M-MRO that went missing a week ago.

 

PMDG Simulations has a long standing policy that we do not wish to host discussions of aircraft accidents in our forum.  I wish to remind everyone of this policy and ask that you please respect it.

 

 

[geolpilot 88]

@ANZ121 I am well aware of PMDG'ss stance on MH370, another reason why I have not commented on this at all on their forum. While that is PMDG's policy in regards to this tragedy, it is clearly not AVSIMs policy (otherwise this thread would not exist or would have been closed long ago).

 

If however, I am instructed by a moderator to cease commenting about any PMDG product in relation to this incident/topic, I will comply.

 

As far as I am concerned I am pointing out, in a general forum, certain aspects that can be confirmed through a reading of the 777's actual documentation. PMDG only come into this in that they have simulated these documented systems accurately.

[mganz121 159]

@geolpilot. Glad to hear that you are aware that any conversation about this tragedy is banned in the PMDG forums. Hopefully the reasons why, will also come through loud and clear here. As you say, policies may differ (in theory), but AVSIM carries the (financial) risk at the end of the day. Who holds who?

 

Why not just set up a separate thread? That way it can be moderated without "inviting" any potential "theorists" to take over this thread and speak on behalf of the software provided by PMDG under their licence "restrictions".