Navigraph 2021 survey is out

[mSparks 2,189]

4 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

<sigh> Just go back to your outdated numbers about FSX users switching over to MSFS.  Can't really have an objective discussion with you (especially when you pull irrelevant information like those outdated FSX numbers).

I am, however, left wondering why you think that is such a great thing for MSFS, when 5% of the 2 million MSFS pilots switched to X-Plane.......

[abrams_tank 7,682]

19 minutes ago, tonywob said:

Wow, just give it a rest... I knew this topic would cause trouble and be raised here by the usual suspects.

Here are my two cents on the result:

• I wouldn't consider Navigraph a decent guage of actual users of the various platforms and isn't varied enough. MFS likely has way more users than are listed here, and this should be fairly obvious to anyone. It's marketed to gamers on an x-box and gaming store by one of the biggest companies is the world. 
• XP11 is end of life... those who are still using it are likely doing so because of certain addons they miss, because of specific aspects of the simulation or because (Like myself) they're not using Windows. A lot of X-Plane users will be patiently waiting for X-Plane 12.
• Clearly MFS is the winner in popularity. You only need to read around on gaming forums, youtube, Discord groups etc to see this. However, IMO, interest amongst the general gaming community has died out significantly since release, and people have moved on to newer things. We may have gained some new simmers, but nowhere near as many as people had predicted. Other genres such as truck simulators etc have a more loyal and active user-base.
• Look at what third-parties are doing. Are we seeing much coming out for X-Plane and P3D lately?... Developers know where the users are and who are buying their products, and this is generally a good place to look. 

The results next year will be way more interesting. We should have a updated simulator and a more fair comparison (modern vs modern). I'll be very curious what MS will do to keep MFS relevant next year to the gamers, e.g. Are the world updates really pulling in more users now? 

 

Thank you!  Probably one of the most objective analysis in this thread!

IMO, the Navigraph survey does give us information on the "hard core" flight simmer market. It's the mostly the "hard core" flight simmers that are most likely to purchase Navigraph and most likely to fill this survey.  I think that's why there was such a low percentage of X-Box users that took this survey, because X-Box users are more casual flight simmers.

But anyways, I do appreciate your reply.  We should analyze the results more objectively.

Objectively, X-Plane did appear to hold its market share among Navigraph survey takers (this would be consistent with the information that 3rd party devs have said that X-Plane sales have not dropped drastically, like P3D sales have for them).  Also objectively, MSFS grew market share among Navigraph survey takers over the last year.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[mSparks 2,189]

6 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

MSFS grew market share in this survey over the last year.

Just, obviously, not from X-Plane, which also grew market share.

[abrams_tank 7,682]

10 minutes ago, mSparks said:

Just, obviously, not from X-Plane, which also grew market share.

Wow, I actually agree with you on something. The chart shows that X-Plane 11.5 market share grew from about 45% to 48% over the last year.  Not a large growth, but a little.

I would guess MSFS grew their market share from P3D users, although there was that chart that showed more XP users switched to MSFS than P3D users, which kind of counters this theory.  But there was a drop in market share for P3D over the last year.  Either those P3D users quit civilian flight simulation or more likely, a lot of them switched to MSFS.  I think it's the latter and most likely, many of those P3D users switched to MSFS.

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[mSparks 2,189]

1 minute ago, abrams_tank said:

Wow, I actually agree with you on something. The chart shows that X-Plane 11.5 market share grew from about 45% to 48% over the last year.  Not a large growth, but a little.

So now look again at what I was saying when you were comparing the 30% of a tiny number with 5% of a huge number, and maybe it will make sense how that can be.

[abrams_tank 7,682]

6 minutes ago, mSparks said:

So now look again at what I was saying when you were comparing the 30% of a tiny number with 5% of a huge number, and maybe it will make sense how that can be.

I don't know what's your point?  Why do you keep repeating this? I already did the calculations here: 

 

About 3000 Navigraph survey takers switched to MSFS in 2021.  Why are you repeating this?  We have an actual number, if my calculations are correct.  We don't need to compare "xx% of a tiny number and yy% of a huge number."  We have an actual number.  You're like a broken record that keeps repeating useless things.

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[mSparks 2,189]

5 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

About 3000 Navigraph survey takers switched to MSFS in 2021.  Why are you repeating this?  We have an actual number, if my calculations are correct.

The graph is switched TO not switched FROM, it matters which simulator they were using before if you want to know "how many switched to MSFS vs Xplane".

[abrams_tank 7,682]

1 hour ago, mSparks said:

The graph is switched TO not switched FROM, it matters which simulator they were using before if you want to know "how many switched to MSFS vs Xplane".

Yes, and there is a subsequent chart that shows the percentage breakdown of FROM:

Running these numbers, then it's 3000 users * 0.346 = 1038 Navigraph respondents that switched to MSFS from XP in 2021.

Like what is your point?  1038 is still a much larger number than 15.

Edit: Incorrect calculations.  Corrected calculations are here.

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[mSparks 2,189]

 

9 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

Like what is your point?  1038 is still a much larger number than 15.

My point is you are forgetting to account for those switched from MSFS to XPlane.

[abrams_tank 7,682]

2 minutes ago, mSparks said:

 

My point is you are forgetting to account for those switched from MSFS to XPlane.

Wow, your math is bad!

4.4% switched to XP. 31% switched to MSFS.  What's the larger percentage, 4.4% or 31%?

And here you are saying I don't understand "xx% of a tiny number and yy% of a huge number"   🤣🤣🤣

[mSparks 2,189]

8 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

What's the larger percentage, 4.4% or 31%?

one is 30% of the 30% that switched to MSFS

the other is 4.4% of everyone who answered the survey (or switched, dont care about tiny numbers enough to check)

Which is the larger number of people and by how much.

Edited December 30, 2021 by mSparks

[abrams_tank 7,682]

49 minutes ago, mSparks said:

one is 30% of the 30% that switched to MSFS

the other is 5% of everyone who answered the survey

Which is the larger number of people and by how much.

Are you really that bad at math? You can run the calculations using the same formula I used for XP.  The survey also has a breakdown of the percentage of people that switched to XP as their primary flight sim from another simulator:

Running the same formula again, 24,200 * 0.40 * 0.044 * 0.374= 159 Navigraph survey takers switched to XP from MSFS in 2021.

Hey, what do you know?  1038 is still a much bigger number than 159!

Edit: incorrect calculations.  Corrected calculations are here.

Edited December 30, 2021 by abrams_tank

[mSparks 2,189]

10 minutes ago, abrams_tank said:

Running the same formula again, 24,200 * 0.40 * 0.044 * 0.416 = 178 Navigraph survey takers switched to XP from MSFS in 2021.

Hey, what do you know?  1038 is still a much bigger number than 178!

Here:

4.4% of the 24,200 respondents answered they had switched to xplane as their primary flight simulator this year

That is 1064 people

which is bigger than 1038 who went to MSFS (assuming you can do math, which I have my doubts).

net result, zero, nada, nothing interesting, about 10 or 15 people one way or another.

 

Edited December 30, 2021 by mSparks

[uwespeed 558]

The MS goon squad is again on its way ...

@abrams_tank So ... what are you trying to tell us here? MSFS 2020 is the best thing since the invention of sliced bread? Because the figures of Navigraph users ... blah blah? So ... we all know, the Navigraph users or sales figures don't tell anything about the quality of a product. Please compare the figures of McDonald's with the ones of a delicatessen shop and you will understand. It's not that hard. And why are you writing in bold letters? So that we stubborn X-Planer's better understand?

But ... I'm not angry with you, have fun with the MSFS 2020 game.

[Rimshot 1,280]

Oh cool, another pissing contest...