Some good TV the last couple of days.

On Sunday evening two good SciFi oldies.  'It Came From Outer Space'  and 'When World's Collide'.  Both circa 1950s.  I especially liked 'When Worlds Collide' because they were preparing a space ship to take 40 people to another planet and all the preparation that went into it.  We were talking about that here not long ago.

Then last night the History Channel has a special on colonizing Mars.  It followed much of the discussion we had on that right here a while ago.  After the domed colonies are established the work on terraforming Mars would begin until they have lush forests and running rivers up there.  They compared it to terraforming earth when it was just barren planet, either naturally or with the help of intelligence from outer space.  And all to save mankind from the Big One...that asteroid that is someday going to wipe out Earth.

Then a thought suddenly popped into my mind.  What if after all the work and expense we put into colonizing Mars the Big One hits Mars instead of Earth?  

I don't recall anybody mentioning that in our previous discussion and it certainly wasn't mentioned on that History Channel show last night.

We are so sure a doomsday asteroid is going to collide with Earth someday.  But what if a doomsday asteroid hits Mars instead?

I seem to recall that some years ago a large asteroid collided with Saturn or Jupiter and they got pictures of it.  Every planet in the solar system is a potential target.  Does any one of them have more potential of being hit than any other one?  Is Earth a more likely target than Mars?  If so, why?

Noel

 

 

Edited September 27, 20223 yr by birdguy

Another poignant question is how would the planets around Sol be affected by the destruction of one the larger planets? How would Earth's orbit be perturbed?

18 minutes ago, birdguy said:

We are so sure a doomsday asteroid is going to collide with Earth someday.  But what if a doomsday asteroid hits Mars instead?

If DART can work for Earth, it can work equally well for Mars but, if a doomsday asteroid hits Mars, the remaining population on Earth will still be OK and the human species will survive.

10 minutes ago, n4gix said:

Another poignant question is how would the planets around Sol be affected by the destruction of one the larger planets?

Are there asteroids big enough to destroy a whole planet or just to destroy life on a planet?

44 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Then a thought suddenly popped into my mind.  What if after all the work and expense we put into colonizing Mars the Big One hits Mars instead of Earth?

 

Not the point Noel. The point is not having all our proverbial eggs in one basket. A presence in a number of locations in the solar system means that if one of those planetary bodies gets hit by a big chunk of rock - including Mars - or we nuke ourselves or something else wipes us out on that planetary body, we are not extinct because there are other locations where we exist. Big rocks don't wipe out all life on all locations simultaneously. The ideal situation of course is that the worst doesn't happen, at least not for a very long time, and planetary defense systems keep this planet safe. But we still need to be in more places than just one. If you had a dozen eggs, and they were all in one place, they would stand more chance of being all sguidged than if you had two eggs in six places.

 

44 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Does any one of them have more potential of being hit than any other one?

 

Jupiter is the solar systems vacuum cleaner. Its immense gravity helps to limit impacts on other bodies including us. 

Edited September 27, 20223 yr by martin-w

32 minutes ago, n4gix said:

Another poignant question is how would the planets around Sol be affected by the destruction of one the larger planets? How would Earth's orbit be perturbed?

 

The sort of existential crisis Noel is referring to is a planetary impact, like the impact that wiped out the dinosaurs for example, or war, environmental destruction etc. 

Below is my less than expert opinion.

Another body colliding with us and completely obliterating the planet until there was nothing left, totally destroying it like we see in Star Wars movies would require a body a significant proportion of the Earth's size. It would have to be moon sized or planet sized, even then there would probably be a ball of molten rock left behind I would have thought.  

The only time we know of that something like this has occurred in Earth's history was during the formation of the planet when an impact such as that created the Moon, but the Earth, despite that immense impact, was still around to cool and reform.

Dinosaur killing impacts are extremely rare,  being hit by a planet sized body or Moon orders of magnitude more rare. It would have to be something like a gigantic asteroid the like of which we have never seen before, or a rogue planet or Moon. If the Earth did cease to exist though, or its orbit was sufficiently perturbed, then that would have an impact on the rest of the solar system.

32 minutes ago, martin-w said:

If you had a dozen eggs, and they were all in one place, they would stand more chance of being all sguidged than if you had two eggs in six places.

I keep all of my eggs on the same shelf in refrigerator.

Noel

33 minutes ago, martin-w said:

we are not extinct because there are other locations where we exist.

Would it matter to the Universe if we did become extinct?  Is the risk of extinction so great that instead of spending gazillions of dollars on a Mars colony that we spend it on improving conditions for the inhabitants of this planet?  I can think of many ways Mars money could be spent here right now to handle some of our current crisis's without going into detail.  

Noel

58 minutes ago, birdguy said:

I keep all of my eggs on the same shelf in refrigerator.

 

Hope the shelf doesn't collapse. 😄

 

59 minutes ago, birdguy said:

Would it matter to the Universe if we did become extinct? 

 

No, because the universe doesn't think. (As far as we know) It would matter to us though.

 

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

Is the risk of extinction so great that instead of spending gazillions of dollars on a Mars colony that we spend it on improving conditions for the inhabitants of this planet?

 

The risk of extinction is inevitable long term. Improving conditions here won't help us when a planet killing asteroid like the one that killed the Dino's lands on our heads. It could be a planetary utopia replete with love and kisses, all living in perfect harmony with Earth and all its creatures, it wouldn't matter.

We aren't spending gazillions. The space budget is a small fraction. Mega sized Mars colonies, if they ever materialize are likely to be done by private companies. 

 

1 hour ago, birdguy said:

I can think of many ways Mars money could be spent here right now to handle some of our current crisis's

 

But its not happening is it. Despite "gazillions" not being spent on space. 0.33% went to NASSA in 2020. 

26 minutes ago, martin-w said:

0.33% went to NASSA in 2020

About $22.5 billion and I think that includes NOAA.

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

Improving conditions here won't help us when a planet killing asteroid like the one that killed the Dino's lands on our heads. It could be a planetary utopia replete with love and kisses, all living in perfect harmony with Earth and all its creatures, it wouldn't matter.

It would certainly matter to those living now and in the generations to come.  Those of us going to sleep in our comfortable beds tonight with full bellies might be concerned about an asteroid decades or even centuries or millennia from now.  But those who will be out in the cold and hungry tonight could care less about asteroids heading toward Earth.  

Funny how our positions in life affect our thinking priorities isn't it?

Martin...how much of your lifestyle are you willing to give up right now...today...to fund a Mars colony to save humanity a hundred years from now?

Noel

3 hours ago, birdguy said:

I keep all of my eggs on the same shelf in refrigerator.

I do as well, but I never put all my begs in one askit! 😆

1 minute ago, n4gix said:

I do as well, but I never put all my begs in one askit! 

I think if you only had one askit to put your begs in you might...or do you prioritize your begs and only beg for one thing at a time?

Noel

6 hours ago, birdguy said:

After the domed colonies are established the work on terraforming Mars would begin until they have lush forests and running rivers up there.

I don't think terraforming Mars is going to happen because there isn't nearly enough nitrogen to create a suitable atmosphere. 

I believe there is no substitute for 80% nitrogen 20% oxygen mixture. 

An atmosphere of 80% carbon dioxide 20% oxygen wouldn't work because high levels of carbon dioxide are toxic. 

An atmosphere of 100% oxygen wouldn't work because it can be toxic, too, and it creates an extreme fire hazard in the presence of combustible materials. 

The best you can hope for is to create enough nitrogen/oxygen mixture for the domed colony.

I don't see the main purpose of the money we're spending on space exploration being an effort to colonize Mars or anywhere else in the Solar System.  That's at least a hundred of years in the future, if it ever happens.

The fact is that space exploration involves developing new technologies that have applications here on Earth which can benefit us in the near-term.  Just look at how satellite technology has improved our lives.  Now imagine if we can eventually put bases on the Moon and mine it for needed materials instead of the Earth.  Space travel will become less and less expensive and dangerous over time as we develop new craft and propulsion systems.

There's also the long-term benefit of being able to deflect rogue asteroids and put bases on the Moon and Mars eventually.

Dave

The answer is easy, there is no ‘work or expense being done to colonize’ Mars. Problem solved. 

Edited September 28, 20223 yr by Doug47