12 hours ago, martin-w said:

 

Hybrid is fine, though, my daughter has a Toyota Yaris  and its great to drive, very smooth, great acceleration and legendary Toyota reliability. Not surprising really, as Toyota were the first to bring out a hybrid (the Prius) so they know what they are doing with hybrids. The new Aygo looks good, small but with the same hybrid transmission as my daughters. Can run a fair way on electric only.

We have a 2020 RAV4 with that misunderstood e-CVT. It's been bulletproof so far. The drone while accelerating can be annoying but one gets used to it. 

17 hours ago, martin-w said:

Gas cars catch fire 1,530 times out of 100,000 and BEV 25 out of 100,000. Hybrids 3,475 out of 100,000.

I guarantee you that 90% of the gasoline vehicles that catch fire are the old and poorly maintained deathtraps that I see people driving around sometimes here in the good ole USA.  They get away with it here because most States have no required annual inspections or minimal standards for a legal vehicle, and if they do they're poorly enforced.

EVs catch fire because the lithium batteries are inherently unstable and dangerous.  I don't even like that my laptop has a lithium battery as those are prone to overheating and even exploding.

Like I've said, I like EVs but we need better and safer batteries.

For now, I'm happy to stick with my mid-size truck with a reliable and safe gasoline engine.

Dave

6 hours ago, dave2013 said:

EVs catch fire because the lithium batteries are inherently unstable and dangerous.  

Like I've said, I like EVs but we need better and safer batteries.

 

25 out of 100,000 is not something I would define as inherently unstable and dangerous. Its a rare occurrence. A potential issue, but rare.

In terms of ICE vehicles, Its no suprise to me that they can have issues with such complexity and a big tank of inflamable liquid in the back.

As for needing better and safer.... as I said, such batteries are already here. Namely the LFP batteries that are now in many vehicles.

8 hours ago, speedyTC said:

We have a 2020 RAV4 with that misunderstood e-CVT. It's been bulletproof so far. The drone while accelerating can be annoying but one gets used to it. 

 

No drone with the Yaris, very smooth and quiet. First time ive ever driven a modern Toyota and im impressed. 

Edited February 26Feb 26 by martin-w

21 hours ago, martin-w said:

On the subject of Toyota's hybrid eCVT transmission, apparently its not really a transmission at all, its a power splitter device. Nothing like a conventional CVT.

There's a video, I'll see if I can find it.

 

Interesting stuff. No belts like in a conventional CVT, planetary gear set instead. And no reverse gear, the polarity of the motor just reverses.

 

Belts seemed to be the weak point in CVT's.  

11 hours ago, dave2013 said:

lithium batteries are inherently unstable and dangerous

 

Quote

Lithium-ion battery fires are rare during normal use but become a significant risk if the battery is damaged, overcharged, or overheated, leading to "thermal runaway". While billions of cells are used safely daily, poor-quality, damaged, or mishandled batteries (especially e-bike/e-scooter packs) pose a higher danger. 

 

1 hour ago, stans said:

Belts seemed to be the weak point in CVT's.  

 

Like I mentioned earlier, an eCVT is not the same as a conventional CVT. The belt is replaced with planetary gears. In fact, they say that in the Toyota hybrid system it's not really a transmission, it's a power split device. Very reliable system. Less complex that conventional auto transmission, duel clutch auto or even manual transmission. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 26Feb 26 by martin-w

On 2/26/2026 at 2:16 AM, martin-w said:

25 out of 100,000 is not something I would define as inherently unstable and dangerous. Its a rare occurrence. A potential issue, but rare.

I'm skeptical of whatever source you're getting that figure from, but for now I'll accept it.

Anyway, came across a local news story about a family whose house just burnt to the ground because of the lithium battery in an exterior solar lamp.  The guy went to put out the fire with an extinguisher and he said the flames jumped 12 feet onto the roof of the house.  He said it was "terrifying".

This is yet another example of how dangerous lithium batteries are.  Now multiply that by thousands and imagine what you get with an EV battery pack...

Lastly, I'd like to share a very good short documentary I came across: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7yBPb5geE_I.  I displayed this as a link only in order to appease a certain moderator who is biased and would kill this post with glee if I posted the actual video.  I have no intention of debating here, just sharing what I find and ask that others share this if they like it.

Dave

 

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

I'm skeptical of whatever source you're getting that figure from, but for now I'll accept it.

 

It's good to be skeptical, I support that, but the figures are available from numerous resources.

 

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Anyway, came across a local news story about a family whose house just burnt to the ground because of the lithium battery in an exterior solar lamp.  The guy went to put out the fire with an extinguisher and he said the flames jumped 12 feet onto the roof of the house.  He said it was "terrifying".

 

It certainly happens, Dave. Here's the thing, though... human beings are good at overestimating danger, which has an evolutionary advantage, of course. Well, we see these reports in the media a lot because it grabs attention and gets views, clicks... therefore people overestimate likelihood and risk. I've had phones with lithium ion batteries since they were first invented, and power tools with lithium ion batteries since they were first introduced, and zero issues over many years. I recall that lithium Ion batteries go back to something like 1991. So yes, it certainly does happen, but it's not common. 

 

https://energysavingtrust.org.uk/report/are-electric-vehicles-a-fire-risk/#:~:text=However%2C current research indicates that,or diesel vehicle catching fire.

https://www.dekra-uk.co.uk/en/electric-vehicle-fires-how-often-do-they-really-occur/

https://lashfire.eu/media/2022/09/2022-08_Facts_and_Myths.pdf

 

As I mentioned. LFP batteries are now common place. I assume you looked to the nail penetration test video? 

 

 

Quote

 

Key Findings on EV Fire Frequency

• Low Occurrence Rate: Studies estimate that all-electric vehicles experience about 25 fires per 100,000 sold, compared to approximately 1,530 fires per 100,000 for gasoline cars.
• Global Data: Research by EV FireSafe identified only about 511 verified EV battery fires globally between 2010 and June 2024, despite roughly 40 million EVs being on the road.
• Country-Specific Data: In Sweden, data suggests gasoline/diesel vehicles are 29 times more likely to catch fire than EVs. In Australia, there were only six verified EV battery fires in road-registered passenger vehicles as of June 2024.
• Hybrid Exception: Hybrid vehicles (HEVs/PHEVs) actually have a higher reported fire rate (3,475 per 100,000) than pure EVs, likely due to having both a high-voltage battery and a fuel tank.

 

Why They Attract Attention
Although they are less common, EV fires garner high media attention because they are a new technology, often involve intense "jet-fire" behavior, and release toxic fumes (hydrogen fluoride) that require specialized training for emergency responders. Furthermore, about 75% of EV fire incidents do not involve the battery itself, but rather conventional electrical faults.

 

 

 

Edited February 27Feb 27 by martin-w

1 hour ago, dave2013 said:

Lastly, I'd like to share a very good short documentary I came across:

 

That's not to do with EV batteries so off topic. But that guy is from GB News, isn't he? (Climate Science Denial Looms Large in GB News Linked ‘ARC’ Venture)

https://www.desmog.com/2023/09/05/climate-science-denial-gb-news-legatum-alliance-for-responsible-citizenship-arc/

Anyway, off topic, not what we were debating. 

 

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

As I mentioned. LFP batteries are now common place. I assume you looked to the nail penetration test video?

So, in the past when I talked about Lithium Ion batteries having to be replaced in 10 years or less, you claimed over and over again that I was wrong.  However, now that the Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries are gradually replacing Lithium Ion, everything's just fine and dandy and that's old news.

https://oupes.com/a/blog/post/lfp-vs-lithium-ion-whats-the-difference-and-which-is-better

"LFP batteries are famous for their long cycle life. They can typically handle 3,000 to 6,000 charge cycles before losing significant capacity, according to data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Lithium-ion batteries, depending on chemistry, usually last between 800 and 1,500 cycles.

***In practical terms, that means an LFP battery could last over 10 years with regular daily use, while a lithium-ion battery may need replacing much sooner."*** - underlined and bold on "much" done by me.

Dave

Edited February 27Feb 27 by dave2013

3 hours ago, dave2013 said:

So, in the past when I talked about Lithium Ion batteries having to be replaced in 10 years or less, you claimed over and over again that I was wrong.  However, now that the Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries are gradually replacing Lithium Ion, everything's just fine and dandy and that's old news.

 

I've no idea what you mean.  I don't know if LFP are gradually replacing lithium ion, Iv'e not seen that data. You were complaining about the fire risk, I mentioned that a lot of EV's are now LFP and resistant to fire. That's all. The conversation was about fire and your claim they were extremely dangerous.

 

3 hours ago, dave2013 said:

They can typically handle 3,000 to 6,000 charge cycles before losing significant capacity

 

Before losing significant capacity, yes, but that doesn't mean they need replacing.

In electric vehicles they can last 20 years or more, especially Lithium Titanate (LTO) batteries, that have a 20,000+ cycle life.

It's dependent on how they are treated during their lifetime. If they are heavily depleted then fully charged, or have repeated fast charges, it reduces the lifespan. Most manufacturers guarantee 75% capacity up to 10 years. But that doesn't mean you throw it away. 70% is still a lot of energy, especially for a modern high capacity battery.

Your "must be replaced after 10 years" claim of the past was based on worst case scenarios, I would say. Heavily discharging, fully charging, adverse climate, mostly fast charging etc.

 

Quote

EV lithium-ion batteries typically last roughly 100,000 to 200,000+ miles before needing replacement. Most manufacturers guarantee at least 70% capacity for 8–10 years or 100,000 miles. Modern batteries often outlast the vehicle's functional life, degrading at a slow rate of about 1.8% to 2.3% per year.

 

Quote

 

Key Takeaways

1. Expected Lifespan: Modern EV batteries are commonly expected to last around 15–20 years in typical use, with gradual range loss rather than sudden failure.
2. Charging Matters: Heavy reliance on high-power DC fast charging is associated with faster average degradation in large real-world datasets.
3. Climate Counts: Temperature extremes can increase stress on the pack, but most EVs have thermal management systems designed to protect the battery.
4. Good Habits Help: A few practical routines — especially around charging and temperature — can help keep battery health strong over time.
5. Second Life + Recycling: Batteries that no longer meet driving needs can be repurposed for storage and/or recycled to recover valuable materials.

 

 

https://coltura.org/electric-car-battery-life/#:~:text=Expected Lifespan: Many modern EV,in large real-world datasets.

 

Quote

Geotab, a global market leader in connected transportation solutions, has released new data indicating that electric vehicle (EV) batteries will  last 20 years or more.

https://greenfleet.net/news/18092024/data-reveals-how-ev-batteries-can-last-over-20-years#:~:text=Geotab%2C a global market leader in connected,will now last 20 years or more.

 

 

Quote

 

 Tips for Maximum Lifespan (20+ Years)

To ensure an EV battery lasts for over two decades, drivers should:

1. Avoid frequent 100% charging: Keep it between 20-80% for daily driving.
2. Minimize DC fast charging: Use it only on long trips.
3. Avoid extreme temperatures: Park in the shade or in a garage when possible.
4. Avoid deep discharges: Do not leave the battery at 0% for long periods. 
    

In summary, modern EV batteries are highly robust and designed to last, often outlasting the vehicle's body and drivetrain, making the 20-year lifespan a realistic, if not conservative, expectati

 

 

 

 

Edited February 27Feb 27 by martin-w

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

I've no idea what you mean.  I don't know if LFP are gradually replacing lithium ion, Iv'e not seen that data.

Maybe you don't know what I'm talking about, but I remember very well how you hammered my posts in the past, claiming that I was being disingenuous about, among other things, lithium ion batteries needing to be replaced at least every 10 years, and less depending on conditions and usage.

Turns out I was right on.

I'm glad that these new batteries last longer and are safer.  I still think that batteries just aren't quite up to snuff yet for society to completely rely on them for energy storage and transportation.

Dave

1 hour ago, martin-w said:

n electric vehicles they can last 20 years or more, especially Lithium Titanate (LTO) batteries, that have a 20,000+ cycle life.

That's a far-fetched claim, likely promoted by the industry marketers.

Please show me proof that someone is driving an EV with a 20 year old battery.  And even if someone is, it's probably 25 out of 100,000, you know, like the fire risk.

Dave

10 hours ago, dave2013 said:

That's a far-fetched claim, likely promoted by the industry marketers.

Please show me proof that someone is driving an EV with a 20 year old battery.  And even if someone is, it's probably 25 out of 100,000, you know, like the fire risk.

Dave

 

Data from 100,000 cars. 15 - 20

https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-study/

I've given you lots of links. Up to you if you believe them.

You misinterpret. Early Gen 1 batteries had lower longevity. Gen 2 higher and Gen 3 higher still. Gen 2 and mostly Gen 3 are EXPECTED to last the longest. 20 years ago would have been Gen 1. 

• High Mileage Durability: Electric taxis (specifically BYD e6 models in Singapore and Shenzhen) have demonstrated high durability, with some vehicles operating over 700,000 km (roughly 435,000 miles) with only 20% battery degradation, still on their original batteries.

You say you are happy the "new" LFP last a long time. Well, they aren't new. The first LFP battery in a car was 2014. And Teslas had LFP back in 2020, well before your "they are dead at 10 years claim. 

can a battery fail at 10 years? Absolutely, if you have a severe climate, fast charge a lot and dont bother to manage the charging. But no, you claiming that "ten years and they must be replaced" is wrong. 

-------------------------------

 

Modern EV batteries are increasingly engineered to last 15–20 years or more, with recent data showing an average degradation rate of only 1.8% per year, allowing many to outlast the vehicle's usable life. Advancements in thermal management and battery chemistry, such as using 20%-80% charge and avoiding excessive fast charging, are key to achieving this 20-year lifespan. 

Driven Car Guide +2

Key Insights on 20-Year EV Battery Life:

• Low Degradation Rates: A 2024 Geotab study found that, due to better technology, batteries degrade on average by 1.8% annually, down from 2.3% in previous studies.
• Actual Lifespan: While 8-year warranties are standard, many modern EV batteries are expected to remain functional for 15-20+ years.
• Real-World Data: Studies indicate that batteries in newer EVs, particularly those produced after 2015, have extremely low replacement rates (under 1% in some reports).
• Factors for Longevity:
  • Battery Management Systems (BMS): Advanced systems prevent overcharging and overheating, which are primary drivers of degradation.
  • Usage Patterns: Moderate charging (Level 2) and avoiding frequent, extreme DC fast charging in high temperatures preserves battery health.
  • Capacity Buffers: Manufacturers often hide a portion of the total battery capacity, allowing the usable capacity to remain high for a longer duration. 
    Reddit +7

Long-Lasting Battery Technologies:

• Lithium-ion with improved chemistry: Current industry standards are steadily approaching 20-year capabilities.
• Solid-State/Emerging Tech: Future technologies, such as zinc-organic batteries, are being researched for, or claimed to have, extremely long-lasting, stable performance. 
  Coltura +4

While early electric vehicles sometimes required premature replacements, the current generation of batteries is designed for the "long haul" ensuring they remain reliable for two decades of typical driving. 

 

--------------------------------

 

https://coltura.org/electric-car-battery-life/#:~:text=How Long Do Electric Car Batteries Typically Last%3F,one of the biggest drivers.

6 hours ago, martin-w said:

Well, they aren't new. The first LFP battery in a car was 2014.

The majority of EVs still use lithium ion batteries.  The figure I've come across is that only about 30% of EVs use the newer LFP batteries.  Just because something was developed and used 10 years ago doesn't mean that it has been widely adopted, usually due to cost and availability.

I see that you're desperately trying to redeem yourself after being exposed for being wrong when you claimed I was being dishonest about lithium ion batteries needing replacement within 10 years.

Just admit you were wrong and move on.  All of us, even you, are wrong sometimes.

Dave