Flight project cancelled/on hold

[rtodepart 761]

I know that flight its still goin on . After being on this hobby for so long i learn that a nice email to some individuals will get you a fair amount of info .

[MathijsAerosoft 2]

no way Germany had better sales of FSX vs. US (80MM population vs. 300MM). Additionally, the US sales have historically been the strongest for this franchise.

Well China has over 1.3 billion people so numbers don't mean a lot do they? It's the amount of people that buy it. Now the German market (that's not only Germany btw, but also Austria, Switzerland etc.) is according to our calculation bigger then the US market for a while for the simple reason that gaming in that part of Europe is very much PC based and not moved to consoles. That meant that we still had access to retail for add-ons and that helped MS sell the sim. Loose the retail stores and the whole chain collapses as you need the stores for new customers. Now MS never officially released any country related sales data (so I do not know where your assumption it has been historically been the biggest comes from), so what we know comes from our own sales data, we sold a lot of FSX copies ourselves, and from discussions with MS commercial staff. But if you look at meetings, there are over 15 major FS related events every year in Europe with in total over 30.000 visitors, while there is not a single big one in the US, and our own market research, discussions with US based colleagues, where the most add-on companies are based, what products are produced etc I think it's a fair guess that the German market is pretty big. But believe me, we wish it was different. The decline of the US market does hurt. just as the total (!) disappearance of the Japanese market hurts bad. Japanese people just do not have PC's at home anymore, They got consoles and phones. Same process as is now happening in the US and we assume it will happen in Europe as well.

[MathijsAerosoft 2]

MS if the rumors are true of whats to come you can stop now because I'm pretty sure most of us who have been on-board since FS 2.0 will want nothing to do with it. I still have faith but we as a community of fellow aviation enthusiast, pilots, developers, and dreamers are rapidly losings faith. The only reason MS and the FS titles have lost its financial ability is not because the lack of demand. Its because MS has failed to set and keep some core values and market a product that many people of all ages would be hungry for.

Nice rant! The problem however is that until 2004 there was a steady stream of new users coming into the hobby. That stopped and it means the user base gets older at the same rate as you and I do. That, my friends, is a dead end. There are many reasons for it, but I believe it simply became uncool and too complex, nerdy, for most new users. FSX sold almost exclusively to FS2004 users and not to many of those actually. So the sales base declines and if Flight would be FSX+1 it would be the same story, just with smaller numbers. ACES was closed because they were thinking about FSX+1. They were not doing what would be needed in 2012 (sure there are many other reasons it closed, but this was one of them). So Microsoft has to reinvent the product and to get new users into the user base. I think that is inevitable. And I think it's good. Might not be ideal for the high end users but all of those started as beginners.

[simmerhead 885]

A very good point Mathijs. The world of computing is changing much like photography and music has. The rapid change from film photography to digital photography left most people in the business flabbergasted. Just as many record industry executives are still wondering what hit them as CD sales spiraled downwards at the speed of sound. Consoles, smarphones and tablets seems to be where people want to play games these days.

[andyjohnston.net 620]

Could you imagine trying to fly an ILS approach on your Blackberry?

[shivers9 1,174]

Nice rant! The problem however is that until 2004 there was a steady stream of new users coming into the hobby. That stopped and it means the user base gets older at the same rate as you and I do. That, my friends, is a dead end. There are many reasons for it, but I believe it simply became uncool and too complex, nerdy, for most new users. FSX sold almost exclusively to FS2004 users and not to many of those actually. So the sales base declines and if Flight would be FSX+1 it would be the same story, just with smaller numbers. ACES was closed because they were thinking about FSX+1. They were not doing what would be needed in 2012 (sure there are many other reasons it closed, but this was one of them). So Microsoft has to reinvent the product and to get new users into the user base. I think that is inevitable. And I think it's good. Might not be ideal for the high end users but all of those started as beginners.

You make a good point and on behalf of thousands of "high end users" let me thank you for reminding us that we are now older than dirt and nerds! You have a good day too Sir! LOL

[jhefner 0]

A very good point Mathijs. The world of computing is changing much like photography and music has. The rapid change from film photography to digital photography left most people in the business flabbergasted. Just as many record industry executives are still wondering what hit them as CD sales spiraled downwards at the speed of sound. Consoles, smarphones and tablets seems to be where people want to play games these days.

In which case, Flight Simulation in general should seem to have to go two ways: 1. As a more serious platform for commerical and serious users, requiring high end PC hardware to run (Prepar3d)2. A more game oriented platform that will run on smartphones, tablets, and consoles. My guess is that the one-plane, Hawaii only "Flight" mentioned in the rumors is a slimmed down and recomplied version of FSX that will run on non-Intel tables and phones running Windows 8 and on Xbox consoles; just as Xplane can run on ipads. A version more like the FSX we know that includes more than one plane and has landclasses for use worldwide will also be available for Wintel PCs. As has been pointed out, XPlane runs the gaunlet from high priced FAA versions to one on the ipad; Microsoft could possibly take that same route; though they already ceded the high ground to Lockheed Martin when they sold them ESD. -James

[andyjohnston.net 620]

They didn't sell ESD. They still retain all the code and can do whatever they choose with it.

[Jacoba 56]

Nice rant! The problem however is that until 2004 there was a steady stream of new users coming into the hobby. That stopped and it means the user base gets older at the same rate as you and I do. That, my friends, is a dead end. There are many reasons for it, but I believe it simply became uncool and too complex, nerdy, for most new users. FSX sold almost exclusively to FS2004 users and not to many of those actually. So the sales base declines and if Flight would be FSX+1 it would be the same story, just with smaller numbers. ACES was closed because they were thinking about FSX+1. They were not doing what would be needed in 2012 (sure there are many other reasons it closed, but this was one of them). So Microsoft has to reinvent the product and to get new users into the user base. I think that is inevitable. And I think it's good. Might not be ideal for the high end users but all of those started as beginners.

Mathijs, Fine points. But you, like a few others who have attempted to inject any rational business or financial sense into this debate. Have been shouted down by those who still think that MS is building Flight SIMS for only those who own everything PMDG builds and has membership on every single FS forum on the error-net.... You cannot convince any of them that MS is looking at money, profits and right now that is console based gaming. I've gone so far as to post telling exerts from MS last (Q4/11) investor statements which clearly detail the rise of console based gaming profits and falling PC based gaming profits. But then again I guess flying in a virtual world long enough, perhaps one loses touch with financial reality... Thanks for weighing in with logic and common sense!

[dmaher 0]

"You cannot convince any of them that MS is looking at money..."

Everyone accepts it's about profit; the debate is about the profit strategy.And I agree it is very hard to let go of our biases about how MS will make the best profit.In all these years, if anyone ever has they certainly haven't posted it here ;)

[jhefner 0]

They didn't sell ESD. They still retain all the code and can do whatever they choose with it.

Fair and well; but now they have to compete with Prepar3d with whatever they decide to come up with that is on the commercial/professional side of the house; which was my point. And, LM also have most of the old ACES team as well. Which is why I agree with Mathjis, and think they are more likely to come up with something that runs on low end hardware like phones, tablets, and handhelds that can also happen to run on PCs (or anything running Windows 8), with more features or expandability in the PC version. -James

[dmaher 0]

I've read Flight has most of the ACES team too (?) ;)Beatle has posted here that he is at LM...there must be others as well.I don't image MS will go after the commercial market themselves now.And you might wonder if MS gets an ESP royalty from LM anyway.

[Guest ShinyJetSyndrome]

As has been pointed out, XPlane runs the gaunlet from high priced FAA versions to one on the ipad; Microsoft could possibly take that same route; though they already ceded the high ground to Lockheed Martin when they sold them ESD.

Microsoft already has taken that route. Redbird Flight Simulations has FAA-approved flight training devices that work off of ESP. Other FTD/sim manufacturers (e.g. FRASCA) use their own proprietary flight sim software. Although IMO XP9 and FSX both blow FRASCA's graphics way out of the water.

[Tierborn 203]

Well China has over 1.3 billion people so numbers don't mean a lot do they? It's the amount of people that buy it. Now the German market (that's not only Germany btw, but also Austria, Switzerland etc.) is according to our calculation bigger then the US market for a while for the simple reason that gaming in that part of Europe is very much PC based and not moved to consoles. That meant that we still had access to retail for add-ons and that helped MS sell the sim. Loose the retail stores and the whole chain collapses as you need the stores for new customers. Now MS never officially released any country related sales data (so I do not know where your assumption it has been historically been the biggest comes from), so what we know comes from our own sales data, we sold a lot of FSX copies ourselves, and from discussions with MS commercial staff. But if you look at meetings, there are over 15 major FS related events every year in Europe with in total over 30.000 visitors, while there is not a single big one in the US, and our own market research, discussions with US based colleagues, where the most add-on companies are based, what products are produced etc I think it's a fair guess that the German market is pretty big. But believe me, we wish it was different. The decline of the US market does hurt. just as the total (!) disappearance of the Japanese market hurts bad. Japanese people just do not have PC's at home anymore, They got consoles and phones. Same process as is now happening in the US and we assume it will happen in Europe as well.

in the western world .. sales do track population. In China 1.2B are below the poverty line anyways, plus China does not honor copyright laws for the most part .. poor example, sorry!

[ahuimanu 50]

Well China has over 1.3 billion people so numbers don't mean a lot do they? It's the amount of people that buy it. Now the German market (that's not only Germany btw, but also Austria, Switzerland etc.) is according to our calculation bigger then the US market for a while for the simple reason that gaming in that part of Europe is very much PC based and not moved to consoles. That meant that we still had access to retail for add-ons and that helped MS sell the sim. Loose the retail stores and the whole chain collapses as you need the stores for new customers. Now MS never officially released any country related sales data (so I do not know where your assumption it has been historically been the biggest comes from), so what we know comes from our own sales data, we sold a lot of FSX copies ourselves, and from discussions with MS commercial staff. But if you look at meetings, there are over 15 major FS related events every year in Europe with in total over 30.000 visitors, while there is not a single big one in the US, and our own market research, discussions with US based colleagues, where the most add-on companies are based, what products are produced etc I think it's a fair guess that the German market is pretty big. But believe me, we wish it was different. The decline of the US market does hurt. just as the total (!) disappearance of the Japanese market hurts bad. Japanese people just do not have PC's at home anymore, They got consoles and phones. Same process as is now happening in the US and we assume it will happen in Europe as well.

I have seen sales data from NPD and it is true that Europeans actually game on the PC more than North Americans or the Japanese. However, while this may lead to sales revenues that approach that of the US, sales are not a good indicator of the total extent of a market. The number of PCs available constitutes the potential market and that potential market is largest in Asia, next largest in North American, and the Europe (and so on). If we look at this data: http://www.etforecas...ES_pcww1203.htm We can see that the potential for selling PC software is greater in the USA, but this market is not realizing the fullest possible capacity for PC games. We all know the reasons for this: consoles are the king of sales (especially the Wii and XBOX), and handheld and tablet devices (strictly for casual gaming) are coming up fast. However, many still do have PCs, but they do not choose to game on them. There are many reasons, but a self-realizing phenomenon exists whereby the top titles are console titles and everyone wants to keep up with the top titles. I do feel that Mathjis is right though; those of us playing with flight simulators are only going to be getting older, the young folks just aren't interested. I think this has a lot to do with the fact that the console realm dumbs down the interface, which in turn, dumbs down the game. Flight Simulator isn't about blowing stuff up, it's about simulating the environment of flight. I just can't see how Flight will hit a new market (consoles, tablets, and phones) without becoming "dumber." The younger people now don't care about PC gaming, and certainly don't want a complex title like DCS A-10, Black Shark, or something like PMDG on FSX. Of course, if Microsoft decided to, they could easily re-hype PC gaming, but they don't. It is still true that a decent gaming rig is $3,000 and a console is $300. The mechanics of it all are not hard to figure out. I think it is very telling that, mid-way in the development period, Microsoft more of less has abandoned "Games for Windows" by just chucking things over to the XBOX section. They are following market research and, in doing so, hastening trends. Look at XNA, - a tool for making PC, XBox and Windows Mobile games - the site supporting the tool is just a shill for the Windows Mobile platform now. Or, go into a local Best Buy (or Fry's?) and see what's become of the PC games section and the PC software section in general - it is in a near-death stasis with the life-support respirators humming away. So, the potential market for PC games is probably still there, but we have a solid decade of folks who have chosen Sony's and Microsoft's consoles over computer games. I think things do look grim and I am very worried about how the success of Flight will impact the future of PC flight simulation from Microsoft. Heck, in a few years, nearly all of Microsoft's former signature products may be shells of their former glory. Windows will likely lose its distinction of being a PC operating system either at Windows 8, or just beyond it.