Malaysian 777 down in Ukraine

[Joe Flyer2 3]

CONFIRMED:

 

Rebels, believed to have shot down MH17, have agreed to turn over the recovered black-boxes from the airliner.

[Great Ozzie 101]

Iraq,Afghanistan and many other areas have been supplied weapons by the US & Russia for decades. Who knows what they have managed to get their hands on & who knows what is for sale in the black market. ISIS recently paraded captured scud missile launchers.

Maj. Gen. Bob Scales (ret.) I saw make the point about the Patriot Missile system (comparable, he said, to the SA-11 which may have brought down MH17) that the 'basic course' for Patriot was 26 weeks.  So it isn't likely the local militia, whether capturing an SA-11 from Ukraine or supplied by the Russians, had the first clue how to operate / maintain such a system.

 

It's one thing to drive around truck & trailer bought from your local bazaar... quite another to fuel and launch the rocket you are towing - without blowing yourself up (assuming the rocket would work).

 

Having been in the USMC and practiced with the LAAW... I can understand picking up - and eventually (after wasting a few) learning how to use a shoulder fired SAM.  But just because I smelled the diesel wafting off our M60A1 Tanks, didn't mean I knew how to operate the thing... let alone how to fire the main gun and actually hit something.

 

It isn't like you get supplied with a Tutorial and can then have at it.

[FLEX1978 373]

In this day and age gaining knowledge to operate any form of technology is not hard.  You would think any organization capable of getting their hands on millions of dollars worth of weaponry can also obtain the know how to operate it.  

 

Why would you think it is so hard for any group to source individuals to provide training?

[FLEX1978 373]

MA released information regarding a higher FL being declined because of heavy criticism regarding the cruising altitude of 33000ft being to close to the restricted zone of 32000ft. That is the only reason that the info was released to the public.

It has nothing to do with missile range but whether this may have contributed to what is believed to be a case of mistaken identity as perceived by the general public

 

This is the official statement from MS.   http://www.malaysiaairlines.com/my/en/site/mh17.html

 

Media Statement 4: MH17 Incident

1.    Flight plan

MH17’s flight plan was approved by Eurocontrol, who are solely responsible for determining civil aircraft flight paths over European airspace. Eurocontrol is the air navigation service provider for Europe and is governed under ICAO rules.

The route over Ukrainian airspace where the incident occurred is commonly used for Europe to Asia flights. A flight from a different carrier was on the same route at the time of the MH17 incident, as were a number of other flights from other carriers in the days and weeks before. Eurocontrol maintains records of all flights across European airspace, including those across Ukraine.

In April, the International Civil Aviation Organization identified an area over the Crimean peninsula as risky. At no point did MH17 fly into, or request to fly into, this area. At all times, MH17 was in airspace approved by the ICAO.

2.    Altitude

MH17 filed a flight plan requesting to fly at 35,000ft throughout Ukrainian airspace. This is close to the ‘optimum’ altitude.

However, an aircraft’s altitude in flight is determined by air traffic control on the ground. Upon entering Ukrainian airspace, MH17 was instructed by Ukrainian air traffic control to fly at 33,000ft.

[Great Ozzie 101]

In this day and age gaining knowledge to operate any form of technology is not hard.  You would think any organization capable of getting their hands on millions of dollars worth of weaponry can also obtain the know how to operate it.  

 

Why would you think it is so hard for any group to source individuals to provide training?

 

 

Sorry Rob...

 

I inferred from your post that merely having the equipment supplied / captured meant ability to use it effectively.

 

My reply had nothing to do with whether or not I thought it "hard for any group to source individuals to provide training".

 

The general point I was trying to make... that, in the case of the (supposed SA-11) missile crew, "they" (whoever they may be) obviously had to have training enough to be proficient on a very sophisticated weapons system to bring down something like MH17.

[g_precentralis 191]

 

2.    Altitude

MH17 filed a flight plan requesting to fly at 35,000ft throughout Ukrainian airspace. This is close to the ‘optimum’ altitude.

However, an aircraft’s altitude in flight is determined by air traffic control on the ground. Upon entering Ukrainian airspace, MH17 was instructed by Ukrainian air traffic control to fly at 33,000ft.

 

Interesting. At PPRune someone posted ICAO FP of MH17:

 

(FPL-MAS17-IS

-B772/H-SDFGHIJ3J5M1RWXY/LB1D1

-EHAM1000

-N0490F310 ARNEM UL620 SUVOX UZ713 OSN UL980 MOBSA DCT POVEL DCT SUI L980 UTOLU/N0490F330 L980 LDZ M70 BEMBI L980 PEKIT/N0480F350 L980 TAMAK/N0480F350 A87 TIROM/N0490F350 A87 MAMED B449 RANAH L750 ZB G201 BI DCT MURLI DCT TIGER/N0490F370 L333 KKJ L759 PUT R325 VIH A464 DAKUS DCT

-WMKK1137 WMSA WMKP

-EET/EDGG0017 EDWW0023 EDUU0036 EPWW0052 UKLV0135 UKBV0153 UKDV0225 URRV0255 UATT0347 UTAK0411 UTAA0432 UTAV0507 OAKX0518 OPLR0601 OPKR0616 VIDF0631 VABF0725 VECF0747 VYYF0926 VOMF0930 VTBB1013 WMFC1051 REG/9MMRD PBN/A1B1C1D1L1O1S2 SEL/QREJ DOF/140717 RMK/ACASII EQUIPPED)

 

If this FP is not fake, than that's not true they filed to fly at 35,000ft throughout Ukrainian airspace. Not that would made any difference.

[FLEX1978 373]

@ Ozzie, Sorry for the misunderstanding!

 

@ Lj, am sure you already understand that the exact step climb may vary from whatever was filed due to a change in winds/weight and a bunch of other factors. I can only assume changes would have been made last minute after the final load was determined.  We already know the flightplan was altered due to a line of thunderstorms.  Thanks for the info.

 

Anyone know exactly where the TAMAK intersection is located?

 

Cheers 

[g_precentralis 191]

Yes, TAMAK is at Ukraine/Russia border. I understand that, but they would not file a completely new flight plan because of that. It's enough to ask ATC directly when you are ready for stepclimb regardless of what you filed previously. You have to ask ATC anyway, no matter your stepclimb is approved by Eurocontrol when you filed FP.

[Great Ozzie 101]

TAMAK is on B947 319° / 44nm from RND  http://skyvector.com/?ll=47.25201705636305,39.81335449517871&chart=304&zoom=2

[FLEX1978 373]

Yes, TAMAK is at Ukraine/Russia border. I understand that, but they would not file a completely new flight plan because of that. It's enough to ask ATC directly when you are ready for stepclimb regardless of what you filed previously. You have to ask ATC anyway, no matter your stepclimb is approved by Eurocontrol when you filed FP.

 

Yes i do understand that. However dispatch/ops can send a new flightplan to be uplinked if significant changes to the route are made.  My only point is that flight plan may not have been the one sent.  I find it hard to believe Malaysia would release a statement like that if it is untrue.  They know that everything will be scrutinized.  

 

Personally I would go with whatever MA say over a post from PPRUNE, at least for now  We will find out the truth sooner or later.

 

Cheers 

[g_precentralis 191]

Well, the FP popped up at pprune after the crash. I guess it's pulled out from system by someone works at ARO as they should have access  But, it's maybe a fake one as it can be done with any flight planning tool, even virtual one like simbrief.

[ViperPilot 81]

Personally, I would have to agree with Rob; with everything that has happened to Malaysian Airlines over the past few months, they are probably the most scrutinized Airline in the World right now. It would not serve them in any way to release information that wasn't 100% forthcoming about flight plans, manifests, etc.

 

Triple P and A.net post some entertaining stuff at times, but I have a hard time believing things that are said there when things like this happen. Too many 'experts' come out of the woodwork.

[mcbellette 145]

I've seen a picture of one particular piece of wreckage from this flight on a mainstream news site here in Australia. It shows what I think would be where the starboard rear passenger door would have been if it was still attached. The section of fuselage is probably 5sqm or so and the windows are gone completely, along with the very heavy and heavily reinforced door. Looks to me (and I'm no air crash investigator) that the door has been completely and cleanly ripped from the airframe by the explosion. It's from the following article...

 

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/mh17-rebels-reportedly-move-bodies-of-crash-victims-into-refrigerated-rail-carriages-as-australian-toll-rises-to-37/story-fniztvnh-1226994936490

 

[Avantime 81]

Personally, I would have to agree with Rob; with everything that has happened to Malaysian Airlines over the past few months, they are probably the most scrutinized Airline in the World right now. It would not serve them in any way to release information that wasn't 100% forthcoming about flight plans, manifests, etc.

 

Unless information that could be used as evidence by ambulance chasers to point to contributory negligence by the airline's security department. Malaysian Airlines will very likely get sued (that is if they don't go bankrupt first) because they used a route which other airlines have actively avoided, even though the likes of SQ and TG continued to use them.

 

 

 

Maj. Gen. Bob Scales (ret.) I saw make the point about the Patriot Missile system (comparable, he said, to the SA-11 which may have brought down MH17) that the 'basic course' for Patriot was 26 weeks.  So it isn't likely the local militia, whether capturing an SA-11 from Ukraine or supplied by the Russians, had the first clue how to operate / maintain such a system.

 

The SA-11 is nowhere near as complicated as a Patriot. The S-300 would be a better comparison with separate command vehicles, radar and launchers. IMO apart from reloading and maintenance (I assume the rebels just drive or tow it back to Russia) it could potentially be operated by just one person with an instruction manual, and there are plenty of ex-mil Ukrainians on the rebel side with vehicle handling experience. I think if the Russians had sent their own crew they wouldn't be stupid enough to shoot down an airliner.

[KevinAu 441]

The SA-11 is nowhere near as complicated as a Patriot. The S-300 would be a better comparison with separate command vehicles, radar and launchers. IMO apart from reloading and maintenance (I assume the rebels just drive or tow it back to Russia) it could potentially be operated by just one person with an instruction manual, and there are plenty of ex-mil Ukrainians on the rebel side with vehicle handling experience. I think if the Russians had sent their own crew they wouldn't be stupid enough to shoot down an airliner.

The SA-11 system does actually consist of separate radar and launcher vehicles. The launcher only has a fire control radar, though capable of limited autonomous operation, would have much difficulty acquiring a target on it's own especially if it was at 33000' above a cloud layer. Whether the SA-11 is as sophisticated as a Patriot or not is not the issue, since it is sophisticated enough, being one of Russia's frontline air defenses, capable of hitting extremely low to extremely high altitude aircraft and missiles. It took more than just a rebel with a copy of a manual to hit that plane. This was done by professionals with training.