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About KevinAu

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  1. That is actually a question that can be quantitatively answered by epidemiologists. If we had such a program here, like they do in some of the asian countries, it can probably say, hold down the next wave to maybe xxx deaths. If there was no such program, there may be xxx,xxx deaths. If maybe there was 50% participation, xx,xxx deaths. So on and so forth. Your question was born from the post 9-11 efforts. We are not facing a terrorism threat here. Whatever success against terrorism we gained by giving up liberties and privacies, was never quantifiable. Thus, we can deride it as ‘a bit of safety.’ The only sign of success against terrorism was that nothing happened today. Was there supposed to have been something? Who knows? No one will ever. However, with such a tracking app for tracing and quarantine, you can actually ask yourself is giving up this privacy worth the lives of say, 500,000 of my fellow citizens, neighbors, friends and family?
  2. I would be cautious of choosing to use ‘better’ numbers without cause. I always tend towards conservatism without knowing anything more, and in matters like safety, it would be wiser to lean towards erring on the side of caution. Unless you know from the data, that the 10% was from houston where the land is wide and the people are wider, and where you live, the people are fit and trim, how do you know that your real chances of ending up in a permanently life altering condition from covid is not the 10%? And do you really want to conduct your life thinking you have a 5% chance of something bad when it is really 10%? I would think that the percentage of those in icu with some kind of condition being taken advantage of by covid is around 100%. And if it is less than that, then that would be cause for additional worry, wouldn’t it? And considering that about 10% of americans are diabetic, 33% have hypertension, and 44% are overweight, is it really a worthwhile argument to still say that ‘only’ people with some kind of common underlying condition need to worry about having up to a 10% chance of having your life gravely altered if you catch the disease? Are we really trying to innuend that we worry too much when 44% of americans have a 10% chance of ending up gravely ill in an icu if they catch this disease?
  3. All good questions. For which nobody has the answers. Suffice to say that the cost WILL be paid. Between being spread out amongst many over time in terms of taxes or sharply by some in terms of death, sickness or destitution. Where in between those two ends depends on us and the government.
  4. Those people are hypocrites. There are devices that can be installed in your car that requires you to blow clean before it allows you to start it. Your phone can also be set to suppress text alerts snd such while driving. Places that have been quarantined should be quarantined until the disease has dropped to a level, say R0<=0.75 in that area before they reopen, otherwise the quarantine would have been for naught. It should not have even been placed. You might as well just have let it run wild. Once the disease was allowed to run free in this country, your choices are limited to either let it take a couple million citizens or save them and use up that cheese to backstop whatever needs backstopping in order to save the economy, or hold on to the gubmint cheese and let the economy fall wherever it may. It’s apparent to me that there are three phases to this experience. Before, during and after. The price asked of this disease we were willing to pay before will affect the price we pay during. The price we pay during will affect the price we will pay afterwards. As with most costs, it looks like it increases the longer you try to put if off.
  5. 1. Mask mandate. Strict. 100% participation required. 2. Government supplies masks to populace to ensure participation. Use DPA as necessary. 3. Increase testing and tracing capability. Ideally, we should continue the stay at home until the ability to test and trace matches the number of cases there are. That can’t happen in the usa unless the government is willing to step in to backstop the economy with steps like rent, mortgage, utility payment forbereances. Otherwise, the economy will have to reopen, disease or no disease. It is going to happen. 4. Reopen the economy, but with social distance restrictions in place. Adjust those restrictions according to how much testing and tracing is available and how well people comply with the mask mandate. The better people do with the masks and the more testing and tracing that can be done, the more social distancing can be relaxed. These social distancing requirements will be a drag on the economy. And resurgences of the disease will also dampen the economy. But the better that people comply with distancing and masks, the lower the disease spread will be, and the sooner that the economy can recover.
  6. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105420/covid-icu-admission-rates-us-by-age-group/ I posted that link in reply to you six pages ago. Did you not look at it? It is from the same site you posted stats from. I post it again. I do not know what the percentage suffering from long term effects are. I don’t think anybody has thought to collect that statistic. People are only just recovering now. This disease only became known a few months ago. Not enough time for ‘long term’. There are however, plenty of anecdotals of people who are still suffering effects after recovery. Common sense should lead one to think, even before anybody has put a long term behind them, that the kind of inflammation and damage being caused to the lungs would cause some kind of permanent effect. Put my cards on the table? Where are my solutions? That sounds like a put up or shut up challenge. Honey, I’ve had nothing but solutions. What was I doing here the first 50 pages of this thread? Who was the ‘lone voice in the wilderness’ arguing for mask requirements weeks ago, well before any were in place? You’re all, except for a few rebels, wearing masks now, right? I wonder who?
  7. You are making an assumption here. An assumption that is required to brush off the seriousness of this disease. You are assuming that the 95% who recover have no long term effects from the illness. About 10% will need icu care. How many need icu care from the flu? Do you know that you can still perform your job, hold a faa medical or dot medical after this illness if you ended up bad enough to be placed in the icu?
  8. Those are nothing more than dirt and grime streaks. The rat is also not deployed in that picture. It looks like just a file photo.
  9. I can assure you right now. There will be no salad bar. At all. You don’t want to touch those tongs after others have touched them. And no one wants to touch them after you have either. Six feet is a layer of swiss cheese. Better if further. More risk if closer. That is risk management.
  10. I don’t think there is a restaurant in the usa now that has tables closer than six feet apart. In aviation, we have something called the ‘swiss cheese’ model. We assume that no defense is perfect, but what we can do is layer as many different types of defenses together to minimize the chances of a bad outcome making it all the way through. Each defense is a slice of swiss cheese with holes. Stack them together and the chances of something making it through the holes is small. Each person who wears a mask in public, each person who stays away from a stranger by 6+ feet, each person who does not linger near a stranger for more than a few minutes, each person who decided to stay home, each of those is a layer of swiss cheese. If you have to eat at a restaurant, then take off your mask while you eat. It is that simple. You’ve lost a layer of cheese in your defense, but there are others, like the other people around you still wearing their masks while waiting for their food, the distance they are from your table, the limit on how long each party can be at a table, the outdoor seating or ventilation, etc. All those factors can still provide defenses to keep you relatively safe while eating. This is how we get the economy going while respecting the disease.
  11. Or maybe you just take it off when you eat. Or drink.
  12. You seemed to express that you did not know what to do. Maybe you needed their help with how to deal with wearing a mask in public and how to put food inside your mouth.
  13. Don’t worry, the state will give you a step by step procedure.
  14. Don’t forget, if you’re under 65, there’s also a 10% chance you will require icu care. That’s my primary concern. Who cares if you die. They put you to sleep and if you make it through the coma, you make. If not, theoretically you die in your sleep as you suffocate to death. You don’t have to worry about anything once you’re dead. It’s the pain and suffering and post covid disabilities and bills that kill you slowly and painfully. It’s the 1 in 10 chance of that kind pain and suffering that concerns me. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105420/covid-icu-admission-rates-us-by-age-group/
  15. Exactly! And those could all have stayed open if we had all started wearing masks at the beginning of this.
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